players miss the fantastic profit opportunity
presented by the NFL preseason. The sharp professional
bettors recognize the enormous profit potential
associated with the month of August and they
use this time to build their bankroll for upcoming
Handicapping the NFL preseason
has always relied on obtaining information and
deciphering the gameplans of each team. Ten
years ago was the golden age of preseason information
as very few handicappers were using the internet
and the online local newspapers provided a great
look into a coach’s gameplan.
Things have since changed
and now everyone is using cyberspace to access
the same information as the professional bettors
and the oddsmakers. While the times have changed,
there is still one basic situation that continues
to produce a profit year after year.
is extremely important in the NFL preseason
and focusing on the intention of the head coach
is a crucial factor when analyzing an exhibition
game. Certain coaches treat these games as scrimmages,
while other coaches try harder to win.
New coaches have historically
been a winning proposition in the preseason
for different reasons. They are normally taking
over a struggling team that is coming off a
losing regular season. These organizations feel
it necessary to establish a winning attitude,
while successful teams with veteran coaching
staffs often take a more conservative approach.
Young coaches bring new
energy and optimism to a franchise which can
translate to preseason success on the field.
This has been evident over that past five years
as new head coaches are 44-28 (61% ATS), including
8-3 ATS last year.
The most successful new
coach last season was the Cleveland Brown’s
Romeo Crennel who was 3-1 SU and a perfect 4-0
ATS, with all three straight-up wins coming
outright as a pointspread underdog.
The San Francisco 49er’s
Mike Nolan was also a perfect 4-0 ATS last year
in his rookie season. Another successful young
coach has been Jim Mora who is now 6-3 SU/ATS
the past two seasons with the Atlanta Falcons,
including 4-1 SU/ATS last year.
There is occasionally a
coach that does not fare well in his rookie
preseason. Last year the Miami Dolphin’s
Nick Saban was just 1-4 SU and 0-3-2 ATS in
his five preseason games as Saban’s high-profile
status as a successful college coach hurt his
team’s line value. The Dolphins were either
favored or a dog of +3 or less in each of their
five games, with three of those games being
decided by exactly a three point margin.
This season there is an
extremely high number of new coaches in the
NFL. Below is a list of all ten new head coaches.
Three are veteran coaches (Herman Edwards, Dick
Jauron, and Art Shell), while the other seven
are first-time rookie head coaches.
Herman Edwards –
Kansas City Chiefs
Dick Jauron – Buffalo Bills
Art Shell – Oakland Raiders
Brad Childress – Minnesota Vikings
Gary Kubiak – Houston Texans
Scott Linehan – St. Louis Rams
Eric Mangini – New York Jets
Rod Marinelli – Detroit Lions
Mike McCarthy – Green Bay Packers
Sean Payton – New Orleans Saints
Keep an eye on these ten
coaches and their teams as history indicates
they should present solid value in this year’s
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