Week 1 NFL Predictions

From investors in the dot-com bubble (who might've studied the Dutch tulip craze of the 17th century) to signers of Terrell Owens (who might've considered his years in Philadelphia and San Francisco), those who believe the phrase "it'll be different this time" are dancing with the devil...while playing with fire...and running with scissors.

So begins Week 1 of the NFL season. What can we expect? If history has anything to say, don't be shocked if some or all of the following games transpire Sunday:

No. 1 - The Big Surprise

Last year, it was 6-point underdog Miami hammering Denver 34-10. The Dolphins, who had endured a 4-12 record in 2004, had a new coach in Nick Saban and an aging quarterback in Gus Frerotte. Meanwhile, the Broncos were coming off a playoff season and, as per usual, were being touted as Super Bowl contenders. So how did Miami do it? More importantly, what can we learn?

First off, never underestimate the power of weather. The Broncos are a cold-weather team. They're used to playing in sub-zero temperatures, not 90-degree South Florida heat, as was the case during that game. In fact, Denver fell to 0-7 all-time in Miami with last season's loss.

"We knew it was going to be difficult to come in here and deal with the elements in their backyard," coach Mike Shanahan told the Associated Press after the game.

Second, understand that a new coach is tough to game plan against. Before taking the job with Miami, Saban was the head coach at LSU, so his play-calling tendencies at the pro level were uncharted. Saban threw a number of creative offensive plays at the Broncos, including a 61-yard reverse run for wide receiver Chris Chambers.

No. 2 - The De-Hyper

Every year a few teams become chic picks to shake off the shackles of mediocrity and emerge as playoff contenders. Last year, one of them was Arizona.

It's tough to fathom now, but the Cardinals opened as mere 1-point underdogs at the Giants in Week 1. New York won 42-19, exposing Arizona's hopeless running game (Kurt Warner was the team's leading rusher with 11 yards gained) and woeful kick coverage. (The Giants returned both a kickoff and a punt for touchdowns in the game. Not suprisingly, the Cardinals finished dead last in kick-return defense last year, surrendering an average of 28.3 yards per kickoff, three of which went for scores.)

The next week, bettors weren't so generous with Arizona. The Cardinals closed as 1-point favorites at home to St. Louis, and the hype was officially unbelieved when the Rams pulled out a 17-12 win.

#3 - The Reminder

The Indianopolis Colts were the bane of sportsbooks last year. Six times the team that started 13-0 commanded double-digit spreads. Of those six, Peyton Manning and Co. covered four of them. It was only when the Colts locked up home-field advantage throughout the playoffs that they let up and lost their last three against the number.

Of course, much of the luster came off the Indianapolis shine when it fell at home to Pittsburgh in the playoffs. And when it lost running back Edgerrin James to free agency during the offseason, some even suggested the Colts had lost their shoe-in status in the AFC South.

But don't forget, the Colts opened the 2005 campaign with question marks, specifically concerning their suspect defense. Their answer? In Week 1, as 3-point road favorites they took it to the Baltimore Ravens 24-7. They then proceeded to allow 10 or fewer points in their next four games. Just a reminder to all the doubters: good football teams adapt to change.

TOP PHOTO: Nick Saban won't have the element of surprise on his side in 2006. (AI Wire photo)

Note: All NFL lines subject to change.

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