Week 11 NFL Picks & Betting Trends

Nov. 15, 2007

By Mike Halford and Jason Brough
Bodog Nation Contributing Writers

Each week, we break down four trends to help bettors make more informed NFL betting picks. The following are for Week 11:

How's this for a discrepancy? During the Bills' recent four-game winning streak, Evans has made 23 catches for 466 yards with two TDs. Over their four losses earlier in the season, he had just six catches for 41 yards and no scores.

Josh Reed is the only other receiver getting much of the ball for Buffalo (5-4). He's racked up 160 yards in the past four games – not terrible, but not even close to Evans' production. What's more, no other Bill has more than 200 yards receiving on the season.

In other words, don't think Bill Belichick hasn't taken notice of the Bills' one-dimensional receiving corps as he prepares his 16.5-point favorite New England Patriots (9-0) for a trip to Ralph Wilson Stadium on Sunday.

Quarterback J.P. Losman will have to use all his receivers as well as a healthy dose of whoever's going to replace running back Marshawn Lynch, at least in the beginning, in order to free up the speedy Evans later in the game.

If the Pats' defense can get away with simply blanketing one guy for 60 minutes, it's going to be a long one for Dick Jauron and company, just like it was in Week 3 when New England blew them out 38-7 in Foxborough. The Bills managed a paltry 83 yards through the air that day and were ripped for 485 total yards by the Pats' offense, most notably by Randy Moss, who caught five passes for 115 yards and two TDs.

For all the bad things we've said about Rex Grossman (see exhibits one, two and three), it's time to flip the script: He's a really good play against Seattle this Sunday.

As the Bears stroll onto Qwest Field as six-point dogs, they hold something of an ace up their sleeve with the man known as Rextacy.

While he's been as inconsistent as a cheap Italian wine, Grossman has been good against the Seahawks. To wit:

2006 Divisional Playoff
Bears 27, Seahawks 24

* 21-of-38 | 282 yards | one TD | 76.9 QB Rating

2006 Regular Season
Bears 37, Seahawks 6

* 17-of-31 | 232 yards | two TDs | 100.5 QB Rating

An encouraging sign for a Grossman-inspired wager came last weekend against the Raiders, as he hooked up with Bernard Berrian for a 59-yard TD pass in Chicago's 17-6 victory. This was the kind of big play that Grossman and Berrian connected on numerous times in 2006, especially against Seattle. In the 37-6 shellacking, Grossman hit Berrian for a 40-yard score. In the Divisional Playoff, the two hooked up for a 68-yard TD.

Seattle might be the most unimpressive 5-4 team in the NFL (they've only beaten one team - the 5-4 Buccaneers - with a record over .500) and will likely be without Shaun Alexander for a second consecutive week. Take the Bears plus the points and watch as Grossman works his way back into Chicago's good books - if only for another week.

Free NFL Week 11 Picks Against the Spread
Bodog Nation Staff Selections

The New York Jets (1-8) have had two weeks to think about blowing a 17-3 lead at home to the Washington Redskins. Hopefully the tears dried quickly and they spent the bye preparing for the Pittsburgh Steelers (7-2) because the 23-20 OT loss wasn't all bad.

First and foremost in the positives column was the play of quarterback Kellen Clemens in his debut at starter. He completed 23 of 42 attempts for 226 yards and a TD with no interceptions and looked poised in the process. Two weeks more prep time should only help him further. (Coach Eric Mangini might also want to use the time to fiddle around with the run defense after giving up 296 yards on the ground, 196 of it to Clinton Portis. Just a suggestion.)

Also consider the Steelers, who just swept NFC North rivals Cincinnati, Baltimore and Cleveland in consecutive outings. That trio of games must have loomed large for Mike Tomlin's squad and an emotional letdown following its successful completion would be only natural.

Oddsmakers like the Steelers by 10 and that's a lot to ask of any road team playing a rested home side. Take the Jets to cover.

Redskins-Cowboys. A time-honored American tradition. Regarded by Sports Illustrated as the No. 1 NFL Rivalry of All Time. The most recent incarnation gave us the "Hand of God" game that the Redskins won 22-19 on a last-second Nick Novak field goal.

So, uh, what's the deal with the monster spread?

Yes, the 'Skins are coming off a frustrating loss to the Eagles.

And yes, the Cowboys are coming off an impressive win over the Giants.

Despite this, there are numerous signs that this one won't be a blowout:

1. The T.O. Factor - Owens has never played well against Washington. In eight games against the 'Skins, he's averaged 38.3 yards - his lowest against any team.
   
   
2. The Portis Factor - C-Po has become a workhorse over the last two weeks, carrying the ball 66 times for 333 yards. His ability to move the chains and chew the clock will keep the Dallas offense off the field.
   
   
3. The History Factor - Of the last six games played in the series, four have been decided by three points or less. The competitive balance doesn't end there: Both teams are 3-3 over the last six.

The 'Skins are fighting to stay in playoff contention and as with any good rivalry game, they should be fired up to stop the division leaders. Take the 'Skins and the points.

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