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Online Ravens Lines & Predictions - Baltimore Future Odds - Free NFL Betting Previews

2006 Baltimore Ravens Season Preview

2006 Ravens NFL News - August 28th, 2006
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2006 NFL Previews - By: Andy Benoit, NFL Analyst

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In metaphorical role reversals, a New England Patriot press conference is like Edgar Allen Poe's masterpiece "The Raven" at face value ("Yeah, Mr. Poe, you said that already. Tell us more, please - what do you mean?").

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A Ravens press conference sends a message that is as blunt as Thomas Paine's "Common Sense."

In the 2005 year-in-review press conference, in which Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti talked about Brian Billick's future with the organization, the owner said there was a decision to be made about whether to go forward with the 52- year-old or let him go. Bisciotti also said, "This is the first year that I think that Brian underachieved." Billick was sitting right next to him. He added, in making the decision about whether to bring the coach back, that general manager Ozzie Newsome and he "wanted to know if [Billick] was willing to change in the areas [they] needed him to change."

Nothing shocking, really; Billick knows everything the owner said was true. But saying it so candidly to the media? It's unusual, but refreshing. And honesty trickles down in Baltimore. In New York, ask Eric Mangini how long it will take him to gauge his quarterback and he'll tell you it's a process that they'll have to sit down and take a look at. When asked that very question, Billick said typically 32 games, knowing full well that the fans can see his former first-round pick Kyle Boller has started 34 games. How about running back Jamal Lewis, last year stinking it up early on and hinting that the uncertainty with his contract for the next season and his need to stay healthy was impacting his intensity? Are you kidding? He said that? Out loud? Publicly?

Hey New England, who are you looking to draft? Wait, don't answer that, we know - a player who gives you the best chance to win.

What about you, Ozzie Newsome, what are your draft plans? Oh really, you'll be looking to trade out? You say trade down for more picks, but move up if you worry that former Ravens front office member Phil Savage (who is now the senior vice president and general manager in Cleveland) will purposely try to stick it to you because he knows how your draft board looks? Huh. Well, thanks for admitting that. Most teams don't reveal their draft strategy or acknowledge that their division opponents have leverage with them. (By the way, Baltimore wasn't lying - they traded a sixth-round pick to Savage to move up one spot, just to ensure he wouldn't job them.)

The brutal honesty has no limitations in Baltimore. Over the offseason, Raven icon Ray Lewis went on national television and criticized the team for wasting his skills in a 3-4 defensive scheme. That was after Newsome had publicly confirmed that the linebacker asked to be traded before the '05 season, but before defensive coordinator Rex Ryan shot back that Lewis's negativity bothered him. (It's almost getting embarrassing, Baltimore - keep it to yourself).

So, in sticking to this theme, let's just set the table for the Ravens 2006 season with a few authentic terse remarks. Baltimore should be in a better position than they are now, but their quarterback play has killed them. They were horrible on the road last year (0-8) which reflects a breakdown in leadership. That breakdown is partly Billick's fault and partly Ray Lewis's fault. Until the Steve McNair trade, annual over-hyped talk about a Super Bowl was being quoted nevermore. Even with McNair, it's an uphill battle for this team. Health issues have been rampant on both sides of the ball in recent years and there are a few significant areas of question, such as right tackle, free safety, and the amount of veteran experience in the second and third strings of the depth chart.

Below we take a capsule look at the 2006 edition of the Baltimore Ravens, with a personnel evaluation and prognosis included therein:

2005 RECORD: 6-10 (t3rd, AFC North)

LAST PLAYOFF APPEARANCE: 2003, lost to Tennessee, 20-17 in AFC Wild Card

COACH (RECORD): Brian Billick (62-50 in seven seasons with Ravens, 62-50 overall)

OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Jim Fassel

DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Rex Ryan

OFFENSIVE STAR: Steve McNair, QB (3161 passing yards, 16 TD, 11 INT with Titans)

DEFENSIVE STAR: Ed Reed, SS (37 tackles, 1 INT)

OFFENSIVE TEAM RANKS: 21st rushing, 22nd passing, 25th scoring

DEFENSIVE TEAM RANKS: 9th rushing, 8th passing, 10th scoring

FIVE KEY GAMES: at Cleveland (9/24), Carolina (10/15), Cincinnati (11/5), at Tennessee (11/12), Pittsburgh (11/26)

KEY ADDITIONS: QB Steve McNair (from Titans), RB Mike Anderson (from Broncos), C/G Chris Chester (2nd Round, Oklahoma), DE Trevor Pryce (from Broncos), DT Haloti Ngata (1st Round, Oregon), DT Justin Bannan (from Bills), LB Tim Johnson (from Raiders), LB Gary Stills (from Chiefs), CB David Pittman (3rd Round, Northwestern State), S Gerome Sapp (from Colts), DB Corey Ivy (from Rams), P Leo Araguz (from Seahawks), P Sam Koch (6th Round, Nebraska)

KEY DEPARTURES: QB Anthony Wright (to Bengals), RB Chester Taylor (to Vikings), WR Randy Hymes (to Jaguars), TE Darnell Dinkins (to Browns), DE Anthony Weaver (to Texans), DT Maake Kemoeatu (to Panthers), LB Peter Boulware (released), S Chad Williams (to 49ers), S Will Demps (to Giants), P Dave Zastudil (to Browns)

QB: The outlook for the Ravens offense changed instantly once it became apparent that it will be the 33-year-old Steve McNair (3161 passing yards, 16 TD, 11 INT) lining up under center Mike Flynn in 2006. McNair's arrival (and the enthusiasm it has sparked throughout the Raven football community) indicates an end to the Kyle Boller (1,799 yards, 11 TD, 12 INT) project in Baltimore.

Baltimore has certainly done all it can in trying to bring along the 2003 first-round draft pick from Cal. Billick himself is an offensive specialist and he hired his good friend Jim Fassel (who was a consultant but has since become the offensive coordinator) because of his track record of helping signal-callers, most recently Kerry Collins in New York. Last year, the Ravens also brought in ex-Washington Huskies coach Rick Neuheisel to work with Boller directly. Neuheisel returns as the quarterbacks coach. But the 6-3", 220-pound, strong-armed Boller has not materialized. Injuries have hampered him (including a toe that cost him seven games last year) and his leadership is non-existent (31 touchdowns vs. 32 interceptions in a career will compromise one's credibility). He finished strong over the final month of the season, but it may be a "too little, too late" scenario. Boller's mental mistakes and inability to capitalize on big-play opportunities have frustrated Billick to no end.

It is a reasonable defense of Boller to try and claim that he's been the victim of unfavorable circumstances. After all, it's not his fault his receivers were no good his first few years; it's not his fault that Lewis has been banged up and the running game stagnant; and it's not his fault he's had injury problems throughout his career.

But in response to that, the Ravens seem to be saying to Boller that bad throws make bad receivers, an inept passing game allows defenses to focus on stopping the run, and as for the injuries, well, such is football - tough luck.

And thus, we have the venerable McNair orchestrating the Baltimore offense in '06. The veteran (who is three years removed from an MVP season) brings a sense of legitimacy and confidence to the offense and instantly has the trust of his teammates. Injuries have made McNair a watered-down version of his former self, but around the league, he is regarded with extremely high esteem from his peers. For the first time in ages, defenses will respect the Ravens passing attack.

RB: In the '03 and '04 seasons, the ground game was riding high, ranking in the top ten and enjoying the power and - especially in '03 - dominance of star Jamal Lewis (906 rushing yards, 3 TD). However, the scales tipped in '05, and suddenly the once-reliable rushing attack was sluggishly hanging low to the ground. Lewis was terrible, averaging under three yards per carry over the first ten games and finishing the year with under 1,000 yards. His five lost fumbles also surpassed his touchdown total by two. After rushing for a staggering 2,066 yards in 2003, the 5-11, 245-pound Lewis has gained just 1,912 yards over the two seasons since.

Baltimore is hoping that with his legal troubles fully behind him, his foot surgery now 19 months in the past, and his $5 million signing bonus check for the three-year, $26 million contract he signed over the offseason, the soon- to-be 27-year-old Lewis will become a dangerous runner again.

With Chester Taylor rejecting Baltimore's five-year, $17 million contract offer and heading to Billick's old team (Minnesota), the Ravens decided to fully commit to a hard-nosed, power-running type offense. In addition to signing Lewis, they brought in Mike Anderson (1,014 rushing yards, 12 TD with the Broncos), a 230-pound bruising back who may play some fullback in 2006. Oddly enough, Lewis turned down a longer contract offer to replace Anderson in Denver. Anderson has looked mediocre in camp thus far and there's an outside chance that Musa Smith (inactive for all but one game last year) could push him for playing time. The 232-pound Smith has missed a majority of the last two seasons recovering from a devastating knee injury that he sustained after a Roy Williams horse-collar tackle back in '04. Fullback is a weak spot for the Ravens. Justin Green (7 receptions, 32 receiving yards) is the starter ahead of Ovie Mughelli (3 receptions, 13 receiving yards) but neither was too formidable in filling in for an injured Alan Ricard (now with Buffalo) last season.

WR/TE: Receiver Mark Clayton (44 receptions, 471 receiving yards, 2 TD) has a chance to be better now that he has a year of experience under his belt. Clayton runs very crisp, quick routes and can make plays after the catch. However, he has an alignment issue with his back that occasionally gives his hamstrings fits. This has been a problem thus far in training camp and a few people are starting to question his toughness and durability. Derrick Mason (86 receptions, 1,073 receiving yards, 3 TD) is thrilled to be reunited with his old quarterback from Tennessee. Mason did a fantastic job of creating his own plays after coming to Baltimore last year. In 2005, he had at least one reception of 20 yards or more in 14 games. He also led the NFL with 30 receptions on third down.

Clarence Moore (3 receptions, 59 receiving yards) offers terrific height (6-6) but he has been unable to make good use of it on the field. Devard Darling (0 receptions), a third-round pick from 2004, has been a huge disappointment and was on the line to be cut from final roster as camp began. Thus, this year the Ravens drafted 6-1, 188-pound downfield threat Demetrius Williams (Oregon) in the fourth round. Williams might step right in as the slot receiver. We almost forgot to mention Todd Heap (75 receptions, 855 yards, 7 TD), which is funny, because the point that needs to be made about the sixth-year pro is how the Ravens must remember to center their passing attack around him. Heap's numbers were adequate last year, but the team is expecting more from the Pro Bowl-level talent in '06. This is the first time in a while that Heap has been completely healthy. Last season he was still bothered by past shoulder and reconstructive ankle surgeries. McNair has always loved to use his tight end and so far in training camp, he has shown a nice rapport with Heap.

OL: The Ravens front five is still good enough to support this offense's efforts to improve, but it's not as feared as it was a few years ago. All- World left tackle Jonathan Ogden made his ninth-consecutive Pro Bowl in 2005, but the 32-year-old has lost his title of "Best Offensive Lineman in Football". Ogden is still phenomenal, of course, but he is no longer an absolute, every play, never-give-up-an-inch sure thing in pass protection.

Left guard Edwin Mulitalo and center Mike Flynn will both be 32 before the season kicks off. Neither is likely to subside this year, but the Ravens find themselves beginning to look ahead just a bit. They drafted Oklahoma center Chris Chester in the second round, though considering he's a converted tight end with just one year of experience snapping the ball, he's not likely to contribute until next season. Then again, Chester has been extra impressive thus far.

The right side is a concern with guard Keydrick Vincent returning from a thigh injury that put him on IR for the final seven games last year and the tackle duties going to third-year pro Tony Pashos, who tends to get beat inside and doesn't have outstanding raw skills. Baltimore expected Adam Terry, their second-round pick from a year ago, to be the man who could replace Orlando Brown, but he was a huge disappointment as a rookie and failed to get on the field with the offense.

DL: The Ravens are going back to the 4-3 formula that Ray Lewis crowed about over the offseason. They drafted defensive tackle Haloti Ngata (Oregon) in the first round (from Duck to Raven - a vicious bird upgrade). Ngata is a 6-4, 337-pound space filler who will be asked to do for this team what Sam Adams did in 2000. There are cries that he doesn't play hard on every down, but if Ray Lewis reaffirms his passion in being the inspirational leader for this unit, then Ngata will compete and Baltimore will kill two birds with one stone. (Of course, if he doesn't, the team ends up killing two Ravens with one stone.)

Ngata will team up with Kelly Gregg (61 tackles, 2 sacks), who at 310 pounds has good size, but is a tweener in the one-gap or two-gap classification. Justin Bannan (23 tackles, 1.5 sacks with the Bills) was brought in over the offseason and third-year player Dwan Edwards (24 tackles) was originally a second-round pick, but the Ravens shouldn't bank on getting much from either of them.

Defensive end Terrell Suggs (8 sacks, 68 tackles, 3 forced fumbles, 2 INT) has been bounced around between the front line and outside linebacker position. But with the 3-4 now history, the 23-year-old Suggs will finally be able to concentrate on rushing the passer. Suggs has phenomenal speed and should erase his diminishing trend of annual sack totals falling (12 as a rookie, 10.5 in his second year, and eight last season). Suggs can play the run and take on blockers much better than one might expect, but his play recognition still needs developing.

Baltimore spent $10 million in guaranteed money to bring in an "overPryced" four-time Pro Bowler in Trevor Pryce (4 sacks, 33 tackles with the Broncos) over the offseason. Pryce is only 31, but his history of back problems makes him a risky investment. If he can stay healthy, he's a potent pass-rusher and can also be a force against the run, either from the end position or at defensive tackle.

The Ravens need Pryce on the field this season. Jarret Johnson (38 tackles, 1.5 sacks) is a high-energy player, but not a reliable every-down threat, and Roderick Green (3 tackles, 2 sacks) saw limited action in 2005.

LB: Baltimore's fifth-ranked defense (in terms of yardage) wasn't bad last season, but the fact of the matter is that the Ravens need Ray Lewis (46 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) to be Ray Lewis if they plan on winning any games in 2006.

The MVP of Super Bowl XXXV and two-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year is at a crossroads in his career. Lewis, 31, is coming off a hamstring injury that cost him ten games last year. His image has taken a hit after he ceded his unofficial role as team motivator - often keeping to himself on the bench during games - and refusing to talk to the local media. When he did actually speak, it was to ESPN, when he criticized Rex Ryan's defensive approach.

This is the season that we find out if the ex-Miami Hurricane is truly one of the special players in the sport's history, or just part of an impressive list of athletes who dominated over a six-or seven-year span. Lewis can easily repair his fractured image - he's done so before (remember the whole murder charge thing?) - and if he can stay healthy, there's no reason he can't climb back up near his throne atop the league. Injuries have not been a huge detriment in his career; he had the hamstring a year ago and back in 2002 he missed time with a bad shoulder that healed well. Thus, being 31 does not mean he will run like Tony Siragusa.

Lewis has his four defensive linemen to occupy blockers and with Bart Scott (83 tackles, 4 sacks) starting at strongside linebacker and Adalius Thomas (84 tackles, 9 sacks, 4 forced fumbles, 2 interceptions) at weakside, he has two pretty good running mates flanking him in the middle.

Scott had been nothing more than a special teams player before replacing Lewis for the final ten games last season. The 6-2, 240-pounder from Southern Illinois responded with 83 tackles and four sacks. Over the offseason, he turned down a more lucrative contract offer from the Browns and signed a $13.5 million deal (with a lofty $6.5 million signing bonus) to stay in Baltimore for the next three years. Playing with Lewis will be great for Scott. His awareness and familiarity with assignments was shaky at times last season, but in this new scheme and having essentially an assistant role, he can focus on using his strength and solidity at the point of attack to win one-on-one battles with tight ends.

Thomas did not have a position last year - he was a rover who lined up in all three sectors of the defense. His gaudy numbers were equally diverse: team- high nine sacks, 84 tackles, four forced fumbles, two interceptions, and three touchdowns off returns. The man backing up Thomas is Dan Cody (DNP), a second-round pick who missed his '05 rookie season with a leg injury.

DB: The Ravens have two first-class cornerbacks in Chris McAlister (49 tackles, 1 INT, 14 passes defensed) and Samari Rolle (41 tackles, 1 INT, 11 passes defensed). Neither will ever lead the league in interceptions, but both are capable of blanketing receivers and eliminating entire pockets of the field. Baltimore also has strong safety Ed Reed (37 tackles, 1 interception, 9 passes defensed), the Defensive Player of the Year from 2004. Reed missed the middle third of the '05 season with a high ankle sprain and, as a result, wasn't as productive. He's back this season and eager to recapture his image as the most feared playmaking safety in football (a title which right now is on loan to Troy Polamalu in Pittsburgh).

So, with three Class A stars in the secondary, how is it that the Ravens' greatest concern heading into week 1 is their pass coverage? The reason is that the other two prime position in the defensive backfield are Class A weak spots. Baltimore let free safety Will Demps get away in free agency and couldn't fill the hole he left. Everyone expected they would look to draft a safety early on, but their first pick was dedicated to adding size up front in Ngata, they felt they couldn't pass up on center Chris Chester's potential in round two, and in the third round they selected cornerback David Pittman (Northwestern State), because they believe the nickel back is a more important position than free safety.

Pittman is a playmaking dynamo but hails from tiny I-AA Northwestern State. He has struggled making the quantum leap to the NFL and, with so many stars around him, he might as well have a flashing neon "pick on me" sign hovering over him. The Ravens signed the more experienced Corey Ivy (62 tackles, 1 INT, 2 sacks with the Rams) and appear set to have him working as the nickel back in Week 1.

The free safety duties will go to either Gerome Sapp (37 tackles with the Colts) - a former sixth-round pick with the Ravens who was traded from Indianapolis over the offseason - or fifth-round rookie Dawan Landry (Georgia Tech). B.J. Ware (4 tackles) is another possibility, though that would be the absolute last of all last resorts.

SPECIAL TEAMS: The Ravens had the top-ranked punt return unit in football last year, thanks to B.J. Sams (12.2 average). Sams is back, doubling as the kick return specialist.

Baltimore's coverage units should be stellar. The team hired Frank Gansz, Jr. from the Chiefs to be the special team's coordinator and signed his ex-Pro Bowl special teamer Gary Stills (14 tackles). Corey Ivy (another free agent acquisition) is one of the best in the business, as well.

Kicker Matt Stover (30-34 FG) is reliable, but the punting duties are up in the air (or getting blocked). Sam Koch (Nebraska) was drafted in the fifth round and is likely to win the job. He'll be competing against Leo Araguz, who has punted just 42 times since 2000.

PROGNOSIS: The addition of Steve McNair changed everything with this franchise. The Ravens went from being a cellar-dweller to a playoff contender overnight. Like any team, Baltimore needs to stay healthy in 2006. This is a task that could be more challenging to them than most NFL clubs. McNair has been a magnet for injuries, Jamal Lewis hasn't been himself since 2003, and Todd Heap has been banged up the past couple years, as well. And now it appears that Mark Clayton is having the "fragile" label cast upon him.

Defensively, Ray Lewis and Ed Reed are both back. Obviously, if they return to form, Baltimore can have one of the most lethal defensive units in football. But questions still remain at free safety and nickel back. We will learn a lot about Brian Billick the coach this season. He has been given a very talented roster to work with that, at the same time, needs a lot of organization and direction. The ingredients are here but it remains to be seen how well the dinner will turn out.

Andy Benoit is the author of the book Touchdown 2006: Everything You Need to Know About the NFL this Year. For more information, visit www.touchdown2006.com


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