NFL Futures Predictions

(Wednesday July 19th, 2006)

With the NFL season just around the corner, this is good time to look at what might happen this fall on the gridiron. Future numbers are out for each team. A year ago in this column I gave out seven teams to look at and went 4-2-1 on over/unders. The lone push was on the Vikings as I wrote, “The over/under is 9 and this is a tough call.” They ended up winning 9, and I nailed the over with the Bengals, Chargers, Steelers and Cowboys.

For 2006 the Steelers, Seahawks and Colts are both tops with 11.5 projected wins, while the team that has won three of the last five Super Bowls, the Patriots, are over/under 10 along with Denver. Scheduling and division play have plenty to do with it, too, as the Seahawks are in a far weaker division than the Steelers and Patriots. All of these factors come into play when assessing futures, in addition to offseason changes. With that in mind, let’s take a look at changes that took place with certain teams and how that might influence their status for the current over/unders.

Eagles (8 wins): All teams that have great runs see that run come to an end. Are the Eagles there? After four straight trips to the NFC title game and one Super Bowl appearance, Philly flat-lined in 2005 with a 6-10 SU, 5-11 ATS season of injuries and chaos. The return of healthy star QB Donovan McNabb is the biggest concern.

While getting rid of problem child Terrell Owens improves chemistry, the passing game is average with newcomer WR Jabar Gaffney, age 25, and young WR Reggie Brown. This has been a team without much of a running game even in its good seasons. Defensively, the Eagles ranked 23rd in the league and ranked 21st against the run, allowing 4 yards per carry. Despite a 2-6 SU/ATS road mark in 2005, Philadelphia is an amazing 28-14 SU, 26-16 ATS on the road the last 5 years. Still, there doesn’t seem to be a lot of upgrades, and the competition is tough in a division with the Redskins, Giants and Cowboys. Prediction: Under 8 wins.

Chargers (8.5 wins): I had the Chargers over 8 projected wins a year ago, but I have to go under the 8.5 for 2006. We can all agree that quarterback is the most important position on the gridiron. San Diego has gotten brilliant QB play from Drew Brees the last two seasons, but he is gone, off to New Orleans. So the Phillip Rivers era begins. Rivers only passed for 115 yards with no TDs and one pick last season. He is not ready for the NFL, even though he is surrounded by some outstanding skill position talent. Still, the pass defense is very poor and conservative coach Marty Schottenheimer is still in charge. A team with a kid QB should struggle (just ask the Bills and J.P. Losman last year). San Diego is 10-6 SU, 12-2-2 ATS on the road the last two seasons, numbers which won’t continue. Prediction: Under 8.5 wins.

Bills (7 wins): So Buffalo was 5-11 last season and its projected win total for 2006 is seven. What did they do this offseason to warrant an improvement of 2-3 more wins? I don’t see it. Dick Jauron is the new head coach, and he didn't impress me with the Bears or when he served as the Detroit Lions defensive coordinator the last two years. Forget about that 2001 Coach of the Year award he won with Chicago – his Bears team was outcoached in the first round of the playoffs, a home loss as a favorite to Philly. And how did Bill Belichick NOT win it in 2001, anyway?

Jauron's 2006 Bills team has a QB battle with Losman and Kelly Holcomb, neither of whom excite Buffalo fans. The passing offense ranked 29th in 2005. Ace WR Eric Moulds was unhappy and left, along with several other key players. The defense couldn’t stop the run and they made some strange picks in the draft. Buffalo packed it in on the road allowing 28 ppg, where they went 1-7 SU, 3-5 ATS. Buffalo is 18-9 over the total its last 27 games and looks like a bad team stuck in a division with the Patriots and Dolphins. Prediction: Under 7 wins.

NFL handicapping - NFL Futures Predictions, Part 1

Last week I examined some NFL teams that may be worth a look at going over or under the season win total based on key offseason personnel changes, both on the field and coaching adjustments. Let’s continue with some more.

Chiefs (9 wins): Herman Edwards is the new coach. I can only ask, “Why?” Edwards is known as a rah-rah guy but is ultra-conservative offensively. So this emotional, conservative coach takes over a veteran team that was No. 1 in the NFL on offense. Edwards says he will run the ball more (what a surprise) in an attempt to take the pressure off the defense, which was 30th against the pass, and ranked 29th in sacks. Talent on the field is more important than schemes. Unfortunately, the Chiefs don’t have, and haven’t had, much talent on defense. Two years ago, new defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham came aboard preaching an aggressive, attacking unit. They were still poor. All the schemes in the world can’t hide a lack of talent. Consider the Patriots pass defense last season, which was second to last in the NFL. What happened to Bill Belichick’s innovative schemes? Well, they didn't work without talent. So Edwards likely won’t have a huge impact on the defense, and his conservative approach is going to diminish the Chiefs’ powerful offense. The new coach doesn’t appear to be the right fit for this team. Prediction: Under 9 wins.

Vikings (8 wins): New coach Brad Childress inherits a mess. They have unloaded stars WR Randy Moss and QB Daunte Culpepper in each of the last two offseasons. QB Brad Johnson turns 38 in September. The linebacker corps is below-average, as is the secondary. The Vikings defense ranked 21st overall. They shocked the NFL world by trading up into the second round to take QB Tarvaris Jackson of Alabama State. After a relatively nice run, the Vikings are in for a fall. Prediction: Under 8 wins.

Texans (5 wins): Most 2-14 teams lack talent. Houston is off a 2-14 season, but is not lacking for talent. QB David Carr is above-average, but he just hasn’t had protection. New coach Gary Kubiak steps in for 2006. He spent the last 11 years as the Denver Broncos offensive coordinator and brings in the Denver “zone blocking scheme” predicated on running back depth and hitting holes. It has worked wonders in Denver and can only help Houston, especially with decent backs Domanick Davis and RB Vernand Morency. Houston took two offensive linemen in the third round, in Charles Spencer (Pitt) and Winston Justice (Miami) to bolster the line, while No. 1 overall pick DE Mario Williams adds a pass rush. WR Andre Johnson is very good and they also add newcomer WR Eric Moulds, who should be a huge plus for Carr. There is plenty of talent for this team to be significantly better under the new coach. Prediction: Over 5 wins.

Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

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