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Last
Minute NFL Season Win Total Thoughts
Tonight the Dolphins and Steelers strap it up for
real as we begin the chase to Super Bowl XXXXI.
We’ve had a couple of days to digest the
NFL preseason, scan final cuts, and analyze last
minute free agent pickups. Here are a few impressions
I have regarding NFL season win totals.
New Orleans under 6.5
As much as you want to root for the New Orleans
Saints, it looks like another long year in the
Crescent City. The Saints have a tremendous 1-2
punch in Deuce McAllister and super-rook Reggie
Bush but the offensive line is unsettled and Drew
Brees must still be viewed as a question mark
after off-season shoulder surgery.
The defense appears to be a sieve and is destined
to allow a ton of points. In fact, the Saints
ground game may be in fact their best “defensive
option” by converting third down chances
and grinding out clock.
New Orleans’s schedule is brutal. The Saints
draw the AFC North and their only winnable road
games are against Cleveland in their opener with
the Packers on the road the following week. Should
the Saint’s open 0-2, it’s conceivable
that they could be 0-11 heading into their December
3rd home game vs. the 49ers.
New Orleans final six road games are at Carolina,
Tampa Bay, Pittsburg, Atlanta, Dallas, and the
Giants. Winnable home games are San Francisco
and Washington. It’s difficult seeing the
saints scratching out 4-5 wins never mind the
seven you would need to cash this ticket. Play
the UNDER.
Houston Texans over 5.5
The Gary Kubiak hiring should pay dividends both
long and short term. If David Carr is to fulfill
his highly touted potential, he’ll certainly
do so under the long-time ex-Denver Bronco offensive
coordinator.
Additions to the Texan offensive line and its
new zone blocking scheme should improve the Texan
running game. Carr will no longer be a piñata
while attempting to pass.
The Houston defense was showing signs of coming
around the final month of the season in 2005 and
proved stingy in the preseason. It remains to
be seen if #1 pick Mario Williams will have a
Julius Peppers type impact but at worse have a
solid run stopper that bring heat to opposing
quarterbacks.
The Texan schedule is very manageable. They open
with three of their first four at home facing
*Philadelphia, *Washington, *Miami, and then Jacksonville,
*Buffalo, *Tenn, Indianapolis, and *Cleveland.
On the road they face Indy, Dallas, *Tenn, Giants,
Jax, and finish with *Oakland, *Jets, and at New
England. I’ve marked what are in my opinion
winnable games and by my count see nine. I see
the Texans in many 16-13 and 20-17 types of games.
Houston is one year removed from 8-8 and I see
6-8 highly probable. Play
the Over.
Dennis Macklin is a documented member of The Professional
Handicappers League.
Read more of his articles and get his premium
plays here.
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