NFL WEEKLY PICKS - WEEK 6

Lacking Discipline, Dolphins turn to Flipper For Inspiration . Miami outgained Buffalo 339-268, but fell 20-14 as a 3-point road dog after committing a franchise record 18 penalties for 108 yards. The Dolphins now lead the NFL with 13 penalties per game and trail only the infamous Raiders in penalty yards per game. When asked what he planned to do to correct the problem, Head Coach Nick Saban said, "We called Sea World and talked to their world renowned dolphin trainer. He suggested we use a reward/punishment system to train our players."

Bears Offense Continues Hibernation . Chicago sustained its season-long slumber on offense in a 20-10 loss at Cleveland. For the day, the Bears accumulated 266 yards total with just 90 coming through the air. CHI now ranks 27th in total yards, 27th in first downs, 30th in passing and 26th in scoring out of thirty-two teams. Throw away an offensive anomaly against Detroit in week two, and the Bears have scored a whopping 24 points in three games. The normally fierce Bears defense did not help its offense much on Sunday either, as it gave up 14 points within 38 seconds late in the 4th quarter. Totals alert: CHI is 1-3 (o/u) and plays Minnesota-also 1-3 (o/u), with a struggling offense-this week.

Tagliabue Resigns After Colts Conspiracy Revealed . Paul Tagliabue abandoned his post as NFL Commissioner on Monday after it was revealed he purposely designed Indianapolis schedule so they would be 7-0 heading into their showdown with New England on November 7. He even scheduled a bye week for Dungy's club the week prior to the NE tilt so he could give them an extra week to prepare for their nemesis. The Colts first seven opponents are a combined 11-21 this season so far after finishing a combined 44-68 last year. Next week, they host St. Louis who is 3-9 on the road going back to last year (1-2 on the trail this season) before a final tune up at 0-4 Houston the following week prior to the bye week. When pressed by reporters what he was thinking when he created the schedule, Tagliabue confessed, "I just thought it was the right thing to do. I mean everyone outside of New England is so sick of the Patriots. The last thing we need is a Yankee-like dynasty in the NFL. It's terrible for ratings." When asked why he chose a Arizona/San Francisco matchup last week for the first ever regular season game outside the United States if ratings were so important, the former Commissioner admitted, "We were simply trying to give those teams away for free, to anybody or any country that wanted them."

Alex Smith Fools Gold in 49ers Debut . Making his first career NFL start, Alex Smith threw for just 74 yards on 9-of-23 passing with four interceptions in a 28-3 home loss to Indianapolis. He was also sacked five times and responsible for five turnovers on the day. When probed why he chose to start their expensive No. 1 draft pick against the NFL's top rated scoring unit, San Francisco Head Coach Mike Nolan said emphatically, "The Commissioner's Office made me do it." Nolan's team now ranks 25th in the NFL on offense and dead last on defense among thirty-two teams.

Dennis Green Beat Red After Latest Loss . Despite holding the ball for nine more minutes and outgaining Carolina 464-330, Arizona came up short 24-20 in a home loss to the Panthers. The Cardinals relinquished a 20-10 lead heading into 4th quarter after allowing 14 unanswered points in the final period. Arizona committed four costly turnovers, including three interceptions by Ivan Drago (Rocky IV), AKA Josh McCown. But McCown also threw for nearly 400 yards for the second straight week after filling in for the injured Kurt Warner. You might recall that Green puzzlingly benched McCown last year in game 10 against Carolina, despite Arizona coming off two straight wins and having a realistic shot to win the watered down NFC West Division. The Cardinals would go on to lose four straight, raising serious questions about Green's ridiculous decision. After the loss to the Panthers, Green hesitated to name a starter when Warner returns from injury to which McCown replied, "If he dies, he dies."

Cowboys Hog Tie Eagles . Dallas demolished Philadelphia 33-10 at home last Sunday. When it was all said and done, the Cowboys outgained the NFL's top scoring unit 456-129 and held the ball for 40:00 minutes! Bill Parcells also watched his team tally 28 first downs while holding Andy Reid's bunch to just 6 first downs and 19 yards rushing. Following the game, a strange scene emerged when the combustible duo of Terrell Owens and Keyshawn Johnson were seen holding hands and mediating alongside Reid and Parcells, who were secretly swapping babysitting tips for their star players over a plate of chicken wings and cold beer.

Senor Regression Makes Cameo at Lambeau . Green Bay's defense entered Sunday's tilt against New Orleans last in the NFL in turnover differential at minus -9. But as we have noted on several occasions on these and other pages, turnovers tend to regress towards the mean as the season progresses (save for a few exceptions). Sunday was a perfect example, as the Packers committed zero turnovers on offense and forced five on defense (two fumbles recovered and three interceptions.) After giving up an early field goal, Green Bay scored 52 unanswered points in a 52-3 rout over the hellacious Saints. Interestingly, GB only outgained NO by 54 yards and also lost backup RB Davenport-who was filling in for the injured Green-with a season ending ankle injury. When Green Bay fans were asked what they learned following their team's first victory of the season, all said in unison: Nothing cures losing faster than facing an Aaron Brooks-led offense and Jim Haslett-coached team. Adding injury to insult for the 'Aints, Deuce McAllister tore his ACL and is out for the year.

Jets Win In Stealth-Like Fashion . In their latest 14-12 victory over the Bucs as a 2-point home underdog, New York pulled off a minor miracle win of sorts by finishing the day with a -2 turnover ratio, less yards, fewer first downs, and on the wrong end of the time of possession battle. It marked the fourth time in five games this season that Herm Edward's team was outgained on the day. On the bright side, fans were given free adult diapers and cases of Metamucil on Turn Back The Clock Day in honor of Vinny Testaverde taking over as the Jets starting QB.

Redskins Dominate But Lose . Let's Play "Guess Who Won This Game?" Team A outgains Team B 447-257 in total yards. Team A accumulates 28 first downs while Team B musters up just 11. Team A holds onto ball for seven more minutes than Team B. Team A in a blowout? Nope. Team B, Denver, actually held ground at home against Team A, Washington, 21-19 despite being dominated on the stat sheet. Go figure: Redskins play their best game of the season, yet fall for the first time (though they did grab the green as a 7-point dog).

Just the facts ma'am . Home favorites are 26-26 ATS so far this season (excluding ties). Hardly interesting . until you look closer. Laying a field goal or less, hosts are 16-8 ATS this season. Of course, this implies that home favorites of -3.5 and higher are just 10-18 ATS on the year. Breaking down this further, home favorites of -3.5 to -6.5 are 6-10 ATS; and 4-8 ATS when laying a TD or more. Road favorites meanwhile are 8-11 ATS with no distinct break within the various price ranges like for home favorites. Overall, favorites of any kind (home or away) are 35-37 ATS. This group also exhibits a similar dynamic as home favorites overall within the various price ranges (not surprisingly). Specifically, chalk at -3 or less is 21-14 ATS and 14-23 ATS when laying more than a field goal.


William Foote is a documented member of The Professional Handicappers League.
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