NFL WEEK 1 GAMBLING

NFL Week 1 Gambling By: William Foote
William Foote is Head Handicapper of WilliamFoote and Editor in Chief of the Superior Daily newsletter and Morning Report. Widely regarded as one of the most intelligent personalities in the industry, William's high IQ approach and thought provoking analysis has made Superior Sports one of the most talked about and sought after sports services in the market. .
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NFL Week 1 Gambling

NFL Season: Week 1 NFL gambling Preview

It is hard to believe, but the 2005-2006 NFL season is just 4th and inches away. It seems like just yesterday that the Patriots were wrapping up their third title in four years and establishing themselves as a dynasty and envy of the sports world.

It is hardly a surprise that our enthusiasm for the upcoming season is at its proverbial peak. After all, football is truly our foremost handicapping passion and we’re expecting an excellent season. Per usual for this time of year, we just completed an extensive study on the NFL and this time chose to examine historical Week One patterns in their most finite detail. But before we delve into the results, let us first reiterate the basis of our NFL handicapping methodology.

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to NCAA Football or NCAA Basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL Expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers pray upon. Thus, understanding who is betting the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the very basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams - teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That is all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week One and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay in tact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in week one. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, etc … look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a “trap?”

To find the answer, we culled six years worth of Week One NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past six seasons, NFL home teams in week one are just 38-50-8 ATS (43%). This of course implies that roadies are a 57% winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in week one when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Take a long and hard look at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price Ranges

Favorites are just 38-50-8 ATS (42%) in the opening week over the past six NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 57% clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges: favorites priced between -3.5 and -6.5 are only 11-19 ATS (37%) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when isolating just home favorites (road favorites hit at a 50% clip). Home favorites indeed are just 26-38-4 ATS (41%) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between -3.5 and -6.5 have stumbled to an 8-15 ATS (35%) mark in week one games the past six seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid range favorites are generally overvalued in week one.

Part two of our study will review the remaining factors that impact week one games from our data set. Stay tuned …

NFL Season: Week 1 NFL gambling

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By: William Foote
William Foote is Head Handicapper of WilliamFoote and Editor in Chief of the Superior Daily newsletter and Morning Report. Widely regarded as one of the most intelligent personalities in the industry, William's high IQ approach and thought provoking analysis has made Superior Sports one of the most talked about and sought after sports services in the market. .
You can get his premium plays here >>