| Stats,
revenge situations, matchups, bounce-back opportunities
and situational handicapping all are areas to
examine when trying to find winners against
the spread. But don't overlook how important
coaching can be when it comes to winning and
covering. Football requires teams to be prepared
in so many ways, far more so than basketball
and baseball. Baseball managers have to live
and die, for the most part, with their starting
pitchers, while basketball coaches of the Hawks
and Hornets, for example, can't do much without
talented players in the front or backcourt.
Football is very different. Playbooks are so
thick they require patient NFL coaches with
the talent to teach, as well as the imagination
to try new plays and try and exploit weaknesses
of the opposition. Game films need to be broken
down, backups need to be prepared in the event
of an injury, and even game plans need to be
tweaked. Look at the Atlanta Falcons last week.
They weren't sure if running quarterback Michael
Vick would be available to play, and when he
wasn't, they went to a more pass-oriented game
plan under QB Matt Schaub. The team they were
playing, the Patriots, had put their defensive
game plan together anticipating Vick playing,
which was geared toward stopping the run, then
had to make adjustments when Schaub came in
to quarterback Atlanta.
Three of the most successful NFL coaches in
the NFL that have all taken their teams to a
Super Bowl are Bill Cowher, Jeff Fisher and
Bill Belichick. These guys are excellent at
getting their teams prepared and motivated.
Notice that their teams are 9-5 against the
spread thus far. In fact, they are 5-2 ATS as
an underdog. Fisher's Titans have been a dog
in every game, while Cowher and Belichick are
each 1-0 SU/ATS as a dog this season. Cowher's
team just won on the road at San Diego as a
dog, while Belichick's team also won as a dog
-- against Cowher's Steelers!
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Other NFL coaches who
have a long and successful track record are
Bill Parcells, Dick Vermeil, and Andy Reid,
while the rest are not as easy to categorize.
You can make the argument that coaches like
Tony Dungy, Tom Coughlin, Mike Holmgren, and
Marty Schottenheimer are above-average, in the
middle, or even overrated. This is going to
be a very interesting year for Dungy and the
Colts. Some think he's a very good organizer
and successful coach, while others think he
is vastly overrated.
On the one hand, he's helped build winning teams
in Tampa Bay and Indianapolis. On the other
hand, he's been consistently out-coached and
his teams have been out-motivated in playoff
games. Three years ago -- his first with the
Colts -- was a disaster, as they lost 41-0 in
the playoffs to the Jets, and Indy appeared
to pack it in. The last two years the Colts
have been completely outplayed by the Patriots.
It wasn't a comfort to Dungy supporters after
their 20-3 loss to the Pats in January when
players and even Dungy said afterwards, "I really
don't know what happened out there." The Colts
are off to a perfect 5-0 start with a magnificent
defense to balance an unstoppable offense. Is
this their year? Or have they played mostly
lousy teams? Barring major injuries, there really
are no excuses for Dungy and the Colts this
season, especially since they are a good shot
to get home field for the postseason.
Finally, two coaches who almost everyone would
agree are not very good are Jim Haslett and
Mike Tice. The Vikings and Saints are a combined
3-6 SU/ATS this season. Yes, coaching does make
a difference -- on the field and at the betting
window. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
Big Al McMordie is a documented member of The
Professional Handicappers League.
Read more of his articles and get his premium
plays here.
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