NFL Preseason Football Handicapping

By: Kevin Kavitch
Kevin is the owner and chief handicapper of GameBreaker Football Picks. At 37 years of age Kevin has built a reputation in the industry over the past several years as an honest and reliable source for winning sports information.
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2005-06 NFL Preseason Handicapping: 1 · 2 · Next »

2005 NFL Preseason Football Handicapping

The 2005 NFL preseason kicks off August 6th and it's time to tune up the handicapping muscles and make our final evaluations about the teams heading into the regular season. More importantly it's time to take advantage of the sportsbooks! The sportsbooks are vulnerable at this time of the year to handicappers who come in fully prepared and take the right approach. I think off-season preparation is key and it's helped me to produce documented NFL Preseason results of 14-5-0 in 2004 (74%) and 14-6-1 in 2003 (70%). Overall an extremely profitable 28-11-1 (72%) the past 2 seasons combined and over $15,000.00 worth of profit for a dime player! The important factors that I look for remain much the same in 2005 and I fully expect to take advantage of the sportsbooks again. Remember that there are alot of variables affecting each game and there are no shortcuts. You have to put in the work and everything gets considered. When things line up the way we want it's time to pull the trigger. Each year I put together a written "gameplan" detailing how I intend to attack the preseason and some of the info from my 2005 GamePlan is included below in this article. Here's a look at some of the factors affecting the 2005 preseason:

Access to information. The internet has evened the playing field and getting the latest QB rotations, playing time decisions, and coach's intentions can be valuable. However, for the past couple year my clients have heard me talk often about "misinformation" and it may be one of the biggest changes we've seen in recent preseasons. In the past 3 of 4 preseasons there is a growing list of coaches that have become god-awful liars so don't believe everything you hear or read. There are good reasons behind it and it would be too lengthy to get into here. The bottom line is that often we're faced with reading between the lines and history has shown that you shouldn't make a play based solely on this type of information. In fact, I've been very successful going AGAINST the grain in these situations and as a bonus the line often works in our favor. The trick is knowing when to zig or zag based on the type of information and who it's coming from. That's where experience pays off and good preseason handicappers can consistently sniff out the BS and turn it against the books.

Target coaches that have positive or negative preseason track records. Several active coaches have developed preseason tendencies that have to be considered when making a play. Some coaches want to develop a winning attitude, others only want to evaluate and avoid injuries to the starters. The type of team is also a factor. The Super Bowl champs may care very little while a 5-11 team may want to win their preseason games to develop confidence and a winning attitude. Then there are rookie NFL coaches, strong ATS winners in the right situations. The head coach is definitely a big part of the preseason equation. At the end of the article I've added a list of a few coaches to note in 2005.

Situational handicapping has played a big role during recent preseasons and it's important to be aware of the best active systems each week. System plays are often misunderstood. I'm not referring to the ones that say bet team A because they were 10-1 ATS last year when playing on even numbered days of the week or some other ridiculous back-fit system. What I'm referring to are specific situations that affect all teams and most importantly make sense. They are only one of the tools you consider in preseason but it's a biggie. Often the team's last game or two PLUS their current situation is compared to similar past league-wide occurrences. It's a way that stats can be used to show which teams should have a physical and/or motivational edge over their opponent. There are over 30 strong preseason systems I rely on each year and during the offseason I make revisions and look for other winning situations. Most have a +60% success rate over a large number of games and have even stronger subsets. System plays can be a big part of preseason handicapping, provided the rest of the info also indicates a play. Near the end of the article I've added some info on one of the systems I'll be considering this preseason.

Target underdogs in strong situations. I tend to favor underdogs in general but there are so many X factors involved in preseason games that it's no surprise that big dogs have done very well ATS the past 8 preseasons. NFL games can turn on a couple of big plays, even in the regular season where there are few unknowns. Now add a bunch of 2nd, 3rd, and 4th stringers all playing in different combinations against each other in games that have no importance in the standings. It's easy to see why these teams have been long-term moneymakers. It's gotten trickier the past 3 or 4 seasons because he linesmakers have made some adjustments but we can still gain a significant edge here with the right approach.

QB rotations and past preseason performances. A very important piece of the puzzle. Rookie or inexperienced QB's are trouble & many preseason games are decided in the 2nd half after the starters are long gone. Quarterback competitions for the #1 or #2 spot are also a positive sign, especially if the coach decides to let them play with the better offensive linemen.

Team depth. Part of the equation is identifying which teams have good depth. There are many back-ups that could be starting on other NFL teams and these players can have a big impact on the game. Other teams are loaded with rookies and free agents and the coaches need to see them perform under game conditions to decide on their final rosters. The team with more depth tends to have an edge provided they are properly motivated.

The big picture. With so many variables affecting preseason games, it's dangerous to make a play based on a single factor. That holds true with most sports wagers and it's magnified with preseason. The picks that win consistently have multiple advantages lining up on the same side to indicate a play.

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System Play: Betting against successful playoff teams

I added this particular system here because it's a good example of how you sometimes have to reverse your thinking when handicapping the preseason. This system has us betting against successful teams from the previous season. When a team has success, there is a tendency to use the preseason for things other than establishing confidence by winning games. There is no pressure to win "meaningless" games. For our purposes here, successful teams are defined as the ones who played in the Conference Championship last season (4 teams in total per year). I've eliminated the handful of times where these teams have new coaches because their motivation to win tends to be stronger.

In the last 11 seasons, teams that went to the Conference Championship are 79-89-8 in the following preseason. That equals a 47% cover rate and -18.9 units. The numbers aren't overly spectacular as a blanket system but it worth repeating that you need to think differently during the preseason. The winning percentage is even lower when we find these "good" teams in negative situations or better yet also playing an opponent who is in a positive situation. For example I have 2 powerful subsets of this system which I look at each week that are 12-27-2 (31%) and 18-37-3 (33%) respectively.

Based on name recognition and last year's results these teams are laying more points than they should be and to make matters worse they may be LESS motivated than their opponent. At the same time but we'll also have to consider the teams individually because preseason systems can be misleading if they're not applied correctly. This year's Conference Champions to watch are Philadelphia, Atlanta, New England, and Pittsburgh.

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2005-06 NFL Preseason Handicapping: 1 · 2 · Next »

Kevin is the owner and chief handicapper of GameBreaker Football Picks. At 37 years of age Kevin has built a reputation in the industry over the past several years as an honest and reliable source for winning sports information.
You can get his premium plays here >>