NFL Preseason Football Handicapping

By: Kevin Kavitch
Kevin is the owner and chief handicapper of GameBreaker Football Picks. At 37 years of age Kevin has built a reputation in the industry over the past several years as an honest and reliable source for winning sports information.
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2005-06 NFL Preseason Handicapping: « Back· 1 · 2

2005 NFL Preseason Football Handicapping

Current NFL Head Coaches

Here is a list of some of the coaches we'll be keeping our eye on during the preseason due to their tendencies & other factors. All results are against the spread during preseason games unless otherwise noted:

Jim Mora Jr. (Atlanta Falcons) A rookie head coach in 2004 and the Falcons only went 2-2 ATS. Of note, both home games were lopsided wins (weeks 2 and 3) and both road games were blowout losses (0-24 and 0-27). The Falcons play 3 road games this year including the opener in Japan. The 0-27 loss came against the Redskins in week 4 and Mora has nothing to prove this year after reaching the Conference Championship game last season. Also, Vick needed reps in the West Coast offense last preseason and that's not the case headed into 2005.

Bill Parcells (Dallas Cowboys) Parcells made his Dallas debut in 2003 and is 5-3-0 ATS. Of note, at home he's 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS during those 2 seasons. Over the course of his career his teams have covered +65% of their preseason games. Dallas should offer better value after a subpar 2004 season.

John Fox (Carolina Panthers) Hard to argue with his success. He's 10-2 ATS since taking over in 2002 and a perfect 8-0 ATS the past 2 seasons combined. Carolina is coming off year where they stormed back in the 2nd half of the season and nearly earned a playoff berth. Fox and this team may come into the preseason hungry.

Dom Capers (Houston Texans) It's hard to trust Capers in the preseason based on his past record. The last 3 seasons they are 3-10 ATS with 7 double digit losses. Close losses are one thing but blowout losses are a sign of a coach that doesn't care about preseason results.

Nick Saban (Miami Dolphins) A rookie NFL head coach and we'll see how motivated he is to prove himself in the pros. Miami was bit by injuries, misadventures, and poor offense in 2004 so we may see a motivated bunch this preseason. Interesting situations in the Hall Of Fame opener vs Chicago and their final preseason game at home to Atlanta.

Jim Haslett (New Orleans Saints) Became the head coach in 2000. The Saints have been very unreliable in the favorite role and are 2-7-0 ATS when laying points the past 5 preseasons.

Jeff Fisher (Tennessee Titans) Fisher's 1st full year with the Titans was 1995. In his first 3 seasons he had a poor 2-8-1 preseason record. But since 1998 the Titans are an impressive 20-7-1 ATS and of note they are 10-1-0 ATS in the underdog role. Fisher's competitive nature may be a big part of those numbers.

Putting it all together

Here's one of our NFL Feature games we played here at ProCappers during the 2004 Preseason. It combined alot of the factors noted above and it's a good example of a high percentage play where the situation favors our side and also works against our opponent:

2004-08-27 - Washington Redskins at Saint Louis Rams

Premium Play on the Saint Louis Rams -2.5

Reason: A good setup for this game. Washington is off a nice road win vs Miami and St. Louis was embarrassed on national TV Monday night vs KC. That dropped St. Louis to 0-2 and reading between the lines the coaches and players have said exactly what I was hoping for this week. Washington's focus may be on more passing tonight and QB's Brunnell and especially Ramsey have not been very impressive so far. We get a good QB rotation with St. Louis and the offensive line has now gotten some time to adjust. Expect a much better effort here from the O-line. Washington has to switch to turf for the first time and that tends to mess up offensive timing the most. St. Louis will be flying to the ball defensively. The previous results for both teams puts the home team in a statistically strong situation to cover and I fully expect them to have a strong edge in motivation and intensity. Rams by a TD or more tonight and we got the line I was waiting for as the public has moved the line to -2.5 due to the St. Louis O-line and both team's recent games.

Result: St. Louis 28 Washington 3. St. Louis dominated from start to finish. They outgained the Redskins 435 to 205 yards and the emotional edge was obvious right from the opening kickoff. The majority of the money came in on the Redskins and the resulting line move in our favor had us laying less than a field goal.

There are a number of strong betting opportunities in the NFL each August and I'll be looking for the spots to take advantage. The key is recognizing the different factors involved in a matchup and giving them the proper weight. By keeping these strategies in mind & being disciplined with our wagers we'll give ourselves the best chance to make a solid profit during the NFL preseason.

Best Regards, Kevin Kavitch

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2005-06 NFL Preseason Handicapping: « Back· 1 · 2

Kevin is the owner and chief handicapper of GameBreaker Football Picks. At 37 years of age Kevin has built a reputation in the industry over the past several years as an honest and reliable source for winning sports information.
You can get his premium plays here >>