NFL BETTING TRENDS

NFL Betting Trends By: William Foote
William Foote is Head Handicapper of WilliamFoote and Editor in Chief of the Superior Daily newsletter and Morning Report. Widely regarded as one of the most intelligent personalities in the industry, William's high IQ approach and thought provoking analysis has made Superior Sports one of the most talked about and sought after sports services in the market. .
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NFL Week 1 Betting Trends

NFL Season: Week 1 NFL football predictions & tips

This is our second piece in a two part series on NFL week one trends. In part one, we discussed our handicapping methodology and showed that away teams and underdogs have been historically better bets in week one games than home teams and favorites. In part two, we discuss other variables from our data set and their impact on week one games over the past six years.

Playoff Teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year vs. non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 19-26-3 (42%) ATS in NFL week one games over the past six seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs vs. road teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 8-15-1 ATS (35%) during this time.

Why are playoff teams and in particular those at home such bad bets the past six openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites; playoff teams are intentionally overpriced by the oddsmakers in the opening week to compensate for the Public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records for home teams from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 9-14 ATS in week one NFL games since 1999 (Home teams with losing records vs. road teams with winning records hit at a 50% mark in week one games).

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular home playoff teams are overvalued in week one NFL games.

Scoring Defense and Scoring Offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in week one games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in week one.

Consider that the road teams with a top five scoring defense (i.e. least points allowed) from the prior season are 9-6 ATS (66%) in NFL openers the past six seasons. Meanwhile, home teams with a top five scoring defense from the prior season are a back breaking 3-10-3 ATS (23%) as a host in week one during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in week one games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up, i.e. isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season, the results are rather interesting.

In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 10-5-1 ATS (67%) when on the road in week one. The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in week one. In turn the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the week one trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but very poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their week one openers provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring Margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team’s “margin.” Margin is simply scoring offense less scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one match-ups are merely 39-49-8 ATS (44%). Coincidentally, the same exact percentage held true whether the team with the higher scoring margin (from the previous year) was a home or an away team. Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “better” teams, which often boast a higher “margin” than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers. In Sum Oddsmakers cater NFL lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use prior year success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in week-one of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams and teams with a losing record or low margin vs. ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL profits.

NFL Season: Week 1 NFL betting trends

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NFL Betting Trends By: William Foote
William Foote is Head Handicapper of WilliamFoote and Editor in Chief of the Superior Daily newsletter and Morning Report. Widely regarded as one of the most intelligent personalities in the industry, William's high IQ approach and thought provoking analysis has made Superior Sports one of the most talked about and sought after sports services in the market. .
You can get his premium plays here >>