The Colts
and Patriots will resume their rivalry when
the teams collide in Foxboro for arguably
the best Monday Night Football match up of
the season. Indianapolis is priced as a 4-point
road favorite and the total is hovering around
48.5.
The White Ponies gallop into this game as
the NFL's only perfect team with a 7-0 (SU)
and 5-2 (ATS) record for the season. This
includes a spotless 4-0 (SU & ATS) mark when
on the road.
Peyton Manning, who leads the NFL's ninth
rated offense overall, is having a relatively
quiet year in relation to his record breaking
campaign in 2004. But Manning is not likely
complaining, as this team is as complete as
there is in the NFL.
Not only does Indy boast the NFL's fourth
rated ground game, but for the first time
in Manning's career he has a solid defense
to rely upon. The Colts stop unit is currently
4th in the NFL in total defense, as well as
6th against the pass and 13th against the
run.
If there is a knock on this Indianapolis team,
it would have to be strength of schedule thus
far. Indy's seven opponents include Houston
(1-7), St. Louis (4-4), San Francisco (2-6),
Tennessee (2-7), Cleveland (3-5), Jacksonville
(5-3) and Baltimore (2-6). The collective
record of these teams is 19-38 (SU) this season.
The Colts narrow 10-3 home win over the Jags
was the only game they have played against
a foe with a winning record this year. And
even though the Patriots have struggled, the
defending Super Bowl Champs present Indy with
its stiffest test of the season.
The Patriots come in at 4-3 (SU) and 3-4 (ATS)
overall, including 2-1 (SU) and 1-2 (ATS)
at home. Unlike their AFC counterpart tonight,
the Pats have faced a rough and tumble early
schedule.
New England's six opponents include Buffalo
(3-5), Denver (6-2), Atlanta (6-2), San Diego
(5-4), Pittsburgh (6-2), Carolina (6-2) and
Oakland (3-5). The collective record of these
teams is 35-23 (SU) this season, while four
of the seven are playoff teams from last year.
Nevertheless, New England does have some noticeable
deficiencies.
The Patriots already have lost more games
than all of last season mostly the result
of shoddy defense. Belichick's heralded stop
unit has allowed 180 points this season and
resides at 29th in the NFL overall. The retirement
of linebacker Ted Johnson, along with the
release of Ty Law and a secondary decimated
by injuries have left the Pats dangerously
thin.
The upshot is that New England has turned
its focus to offense. Tom Brady is averaging
279 yards passing per game, which is 2nd best
in the NFL overall. The Pats are additionally
4th in the NFL in total yards per game and
have been "razor sharp" against the number
at Gillette Stadium.
New England, in fact, is now 17-4 (ATS) its
past twenty-one at home, including 7-2 (ATS)
in the rare role of home underdog. Even more
important is series history. Manning, the
consummate film room student, has been baffled
and confused by Belichick's defensive wizardry.
The Colts are 1-6 (SU) and 0-6-1 (ATS) against
New England with Belichick and Manning has
never won a game at Gillette Stadium. Note
further that Belichick has been the head coach
and/or defensive coordinator (Patriots and
Jets) vs. Manning eleven times and is 9-1-1
(ATS) vs. him. The simple reason is Bill Belichick
is a master of neutralizing good quarterbacks,
Manning not withstanding.
Good luck tonight!
William Foote is a documented member of The
Professional Handicappers League.
Read more of his articles and get Monday Night
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