| Did
you see the Rams flop at home Sunday in
a 38-28 loss to the Cardinals? The game
sailed over the total, which is not a surprise
as the Rams have the fourth-worst defense
in the NFL. The Rams have a high octane
offense with loads of weapons in the running
and passing game, but the defense has been
poor the last two years under coordinator
Larry Marmie, who replaced the popular Lovie
Smith. It's obvious Marmie does not possess
Smith's talent for defense. 70% of the Rams
games have gone over the total this season
(7-3). It's those type of team strengths
and weaknesses (bad defense, good offense)
that handicappers look for when examining
totals. The Rams are 4-1 over the total
at home, too, on their slick artificial
carpet.
Speaking of Lovie Smith,
he's since gone on to be head coach of the
Chicago Bears. He has an abundance of defensive
talent, and limited offensive options along
with a rookie quarterback. It's no surprise
that Smith prefers to win games with his
defense and play conservative offensively
with a rookie QB. The Bears are 8-2 under
the total this season. Think that's just
a trend? Smith ran the same formula a year
ago as Chicago went 10-6 under the total,
meaning they are 18-8 under since he's become
Bears coach!
Handicapping totals is about
line value, but it's also about the styles
a football team plays. Another factor to
keep in mind as we come down the stretch
of the NFL season is weather. Northern cities
like Chicago, New York, Boston, Philly and
Pittsburgh are getting cold this time of
year. It's essential to check weather conditions
on game day. Cold weather is tougher on
offenses, as is chilling winds and snow
which is also something that will become
more common.
The Colts improved defense
was one of the big surprises of the NFL
season. But notice they haven't been as
strong of late, giving up over 20 points
in 4 of the last 5 games. The Bengals got
them for close to 500 yards Sunday.
After starting the season
5-0 under the total, the Colts offense has
begun to click, while the defense has begun
to bend more and Indy is 5-0 over the total
the last five contests. The Bengals/Colts
shootout Sunday went over the total in the
first half! You might classify the Cleveland
Browns in the Chicago Bears category, too:
Plodding offense, tough defense. Head coach
Romeo Crennel has a great defensive mind,
winning three of the last four Super Bowls
as coordinator of the Patriots defense. The
Browns are improved defensively under his
guidance, going 8-2 under the total. And the
Patriots miss Crennel. Along with his absence
and numerous injuries to the secondary, the
Patriots are 6-3 over the total, with a fine
passing attack but a suddenly poor secondary.
Injuries, too, can change
a team significantly. The NY Jets have an
incredibly anemic offense rotating four
QBs this season. The Jets are 4-2 under
the total on the road where the offense
is averaging just 7 points per game! The
Steelers can't wait for Ben Roethlisberger
to get healthy, and notice Pittsburgh is
5-0 under the total on the road with a tough
defense and a conservative offense without
Big Ben. Stats, styles, coaching and weather
all contribute to overs and unders.
Bryan Leonard is a documented member of
The Professional Handicappers League.
Read more of his articles and get his NFL
Wagering Predictions & plays here. |
