| Think
the Colts will run the table? Oops! It was
fun while it lasted. The Colts' goose-egg
loss season went down in flames Sunday in
a 26-17 home defeat to the charging Chargers
(a nice win for us as SD was our Steamroller
of the Month). In the battle of coaches who
can't win the big one, it was the desperate
Chargers who outplayed the Colts. Make no
mistake: The Colts were outplayed. San Diego
had 453 total yards, including 206 rushing.
It wasn't the kind of thriller they played
a year ago, as seven turnovers 19 penalties
marred the game.
What's important to understand
is that it was not a fluke. San Diego didn't
throw some unique or intricate game plan at
the Colts. They mixed it up, played a physical
game -- especially against the Indy running
attack -- and pounded the Colts' smallish
defense by running right at it. Defensively,
Indy is a team built for speed rather than
power. Its defense is outstanding at getting
a pass rush on opposing quarterbacks with
its inside/out quickness, as well as running
down sweeps. However, if you take it right
at them with a power running game, they are
at a disadvantage.
Look no further than when the
Rams came to Indy back in October, with Stephen
Jackson and Marshall Faulk gaining large chunks
on the ground while building a 17-0 lead.
It's surprising more teams haven't tried that
basic strategy. The Colts were fortunate to
catch New England and Pittsburgh at the right
time, when both had several injuries to their
offensive line and running games. In short,
a healthy Patriots or Steelers squad matches
up well with Indy, though neither is fully
healthy at this point, either.
In addition, the Bengals have
a dynamite offense that scored 37 on the Colts
with 492 total yards. Throw in the balanced
attack of the Chargers -- if they can somehow
squeeze into the playoffs -- and there are
several AFC teams that match up well with
the Colts. One other thing to note: the Chargers
put a lot of pressure on Peyton Manning, and
offensively San Diego went 7-for-17 on third
down and rushed for 5.6 yards per carry. Indy
is still the team to beat, of course, especially
with home field in January, but they are not
head and shoulders above everyone else in
the AFC -- or the league -- for that matter.
That's what's going to make the postseason
so interesting.
Taking the other point of view
for a moment, it was still a game the Colts
could have won. They were driving for the
winning score down 19-17 before sacks and
penalties killed them. They also fumbled on
a kickoff return deep in their own territory,
and on fourth-and-goal at the one, Peyton
Manning had probably the worst call/execution
of the season with a naked bootleg! He was
thrown for a loss and the Colts came away
with nothing.
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Speaking of getting healthy,
a game that took place Saturday should have
the Colts and NFL observers taking notice. In
a match-up of two postseason teams, the Patriots
shut out the Bucs 28-0. New England still has
a young, suspect secondary, and nowhere near
the ground game they had a year ago because
of offensive line injuries and problems keeping
Corey Dillon healthy (or perhaps he's just getting
old and low on gas). But the Patriots turned
in another positively dominating game defensively,
their third in a row. Critics were pointing
out that the Pats had rolled over two sorry
teams (Bills, Jets) and their showdown with
Tampa Bay could be revealing. The defense was
dominating again. Tedy Bruschi is now in mid-season
form, rookie CB Ellis Hobbs has been solid replacing
bust free agent Duane Starks, and the huge improvement
against the run has all coincided with the return
of All-Pro Richard Seymour five weeks ago. The
Pats are sitting roughly 18-to-1 to win the
Super Bowl, but will be an interesting January
team with the improved defense, QB Tom Brady
and a guy named Belichick, two men who have
a history of excelling in January when all the
money’s on the line.
There’s been a lot of
talk about the favorites covering this year,
and it has been an unusual year for the chalk.
After the favorites went 3-0 SU/ATS Saturday,
it appeared to be another weekend for favorites.
On Sunday, however, the dogs barked, with
5 of the first 7 Sunday dogs covering. In
addition, the unders started 7-4 this weekend,
something not unusual as the weather begins
to chill. Good luck as always...Al McMordie.
Big Al McMordie is a documented member of
The Professional Handicappers League.
Read more of his articles and get his premium
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