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The nation's two-biggest games this weekend
offer some interesting storylines. In Blacksburg,
No. 3 Virginia Tech hosts No. 5 Miami-Florida
(No. 6 in the BCS), while in State College,
No. 10 Penn State (No. 7 in the BCS) hosts No.
14 Wisconsin (No. 12 in the BCS). Traditionally,
the winner of the Big-10 gets a trip to the
Rose Bowl but with the Rose Bowl hosting this
year's BCS title game, Virginia Tech has a better
shot at making this year's Rose Bowl, than the
Wisconsin-Penn State winner!
Starting with the Big-10 game, who would have
imagined back on Labor Day weekend, that Wisconsin's
November 5 meeting with Penn State would have
this much riding on it? Wisconsin entered the
2005 season knowing it would be Barry Alvarez's
16th and FINAL season at Madison. While
Wisconsin was coming off a 9-3 season in 2004,
the Badgers had consecutive seasons of 5-7,
8-6 and 7-6 the previous three years and no
one expected much from Barry's "last team."
As for Penn State, the "Joe must go" crowd had
plenty of ammunition to work with, as leading
into this year the Nittany Lions had suffered
through losing seasons in FOUR of the
previous five years.
However, both teams are 8-1 (5-1) entering Saturday's
game. While neither can secure the Big-10 crown
with a win, the loser is all but eliminated
while the winner puts itself in a great position
to secure a BCS bowl bid. Since beating Wisconsin
in Happy Valley back in 1997, Penn State has
lost FOUR of its last five meetings (1-4
ATS) with Wisconsin, including both home games.
Penn State opened as a nine-point favorite and
the early money has moved them to an 11-point
choice.
Back to the ACC, it's former Big East rivals,
Miami-Florida at Virginia Tech in a showdown
that could influence much more than just the
Coastal Division winner of the ACC. Virginia
Tech holds down the "dreaded" No. 3 spot in
the BCS standings but the latest standings brought
significant news other than USC leapfrogging
Texas into the No. 1 spot. The Hokies trailed
the No.2 Trojans by .0592 the previous week
but trail the No. 2 Longhorns by .0435 this
week.
What this means is that while the margin-of-victory
component was removed from the computer ratings,
it CAN'T be removed from the minds of
the people voting in the Harris or Coaches'
polls, which make up two-thirds of a team's
BCS ranking. Texas cost itself some votes in
both the human polls last Saturday by falling
behind Oklahoma State, 28-9 (won 47-28). If
Va Tech can win impressively over Miami, the
Hokies may gain more ground in those human polls.
Va Tech won at Miami last year 16-10 as seven-point
underdogs, and has won FOUR of the last
five meeting with the Hurricanes in Blacksburg.
While Va Tech is 32-6 SU at home since 2000,
Miami is 31-4 SU on the road over the same period
of time. Miami leads the nation in total defense,
allowing just 3.29 yards per play, and Va Tech
is No. 2 at 3.92. Va Tech is No. 1 in scoring
defense, allowing 9.1 PPG, and Miami is No.
3 at 10.9. Va Tech opened a 4 1/2-point favorite
and has been bet up to a 6 1/2-point favorite.
MORE on the BCS
If you are rooting for a USC/Texas showdown
in the Rose Bowl and assuming that USC, Texas
and Va Terch all win out, here's what you are
rooting for. USC is in pretty good shape, considering
the Trojans have three, BCS top-25 teams still
left on their schedule in Cal (23), Fresno State
(24) and UCLA (5). However, Trojan fans don't
want any slip-ups by those teams except in their
games with USC. As for Texas, the Longhorns
would love to see the Red Raiders win-out (Tex
A&M, Okla St and Okla), a scenario that would
likely see Texas Tech finish in, or just out,
of the BCS final top-10 (helping Texas with
the computers on strength of schedule). Texas
will also be rooting for Colorado this Saturday
vs Missouri and in the team's subsequent games
at Iowa St and home to Nebraska. Colorado is
currently 22nd in the BCS standings and wins
in those three games would give Texas a quality
opponent in the Big-12 title game.
The biggest BCS surprises this week were
Notre Dame at No. 14 (No. 9 in both the Harris
and Coaches' polls) and Oklahoma at No. 25 (T-32nd
in the Harris and T-30th in the Coaches'). Notre
Dame will need to win its remaining four games
to get to nine wins, plus have a final BCS ranking
of at least 12, to guarantee itself a BCS bowl
bid. Wouldn't it be something if Tennessee,
arguably the nation's most disappointing team
in 2005, ruined Notre Dame's chances this week?
The Irish host the 3-4 Vols this Saturday in
South Bend, where they are nine-point favorites.
This year's Tennessee team is the "poster-team"
for why preseason polls are so ridiculous. The
Vols were ranked No. 3 in both the AP and coaches'
polls before the year but have won just three
of seven games in 2005! However, it's not just
Tennessee! SIX of the preseason top-15
have been out of this year's top-25 at one time
or the other. Joining Tennessee as teams no
longer in anyone's top-25 polls are Oklahoma,
Iowa and Purdue.
The Boilermakers may rival the Volunteers for
2005's biggest flop! Joe Tiller's team returned
18 starters (all 11 on defense!) from a team
that lost five games last year by a total of
just 14 points! The Boilermakers did
not have either Michigan or Ohio State on their
2005 schedule and were the pick of many (including
myself), as not only a legitimate Big-10 contender
but also as one of the nation's real "sleeper"
teams. Instead of glory in 2005, Purdue hosts
Michigan State this Saturday at 2-6 overall
and on a six-game losing streak. The Boilermakers
join the Blue Devils of Duke, as the nation's
only winless ATS teams in 2005. Both are 0-8!
'FLYING' under the radar
Utah made history last year by becoming the
first school from a non-BCS conference to get
a BCS Bowl bid. The Utes of course play in the
MWC and have struggled in 2005 without head
coach Urban Meyer and NFL No. 1 pick, Alex Smith.
However, another MWC school is on the verge
of "something special" this year, in
just its first year in the conference! TCU opened
the year by winning at Norman back on September
3, 17-10 (as 25-point 'dogs'). Only a 21-10
loss at former SWC-rival SMU the very next week,
prevents the Horned Frogs (18th in the current
BCS standings) from being perfect in 2005. Gary
Patterson's team is clearly not in the class
of last year's Urban Meyer-led Utes but let's
give him and his team their due.
TCU (8-1 / 6-0) hosts Colorado State (the Rams
would be next week's story if they win!) on
Saturday and a win would clinch the MWC title
for the Horned Frogs. While TCU owns three 10-win
seasons since 2000, the Horned Frogs have not
won an outright conference title since winning
the Southwest Conference in 1958! In this "new-world"
order of college football, TCU is playing in
its FOURTH conference since 1995 (SWC,
WAC, C-USA and MWC) and doing just fine, thank
you!
Larry Ness is a documented member of The Professional
Handicappers League.
Read more of his articles and get his premium
plays here.
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