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I've always believed that the number zero
is extremely defining! In the world of sports,
as in real estate, it's all about "location,
location and location!" A zero in the right-hand
column of the won-loss standings is a very good
thing, while one in the left-hand column, is
not so good!
As college football enters its stretch run,
anyone remotely associated with the game is
well aware that USC, Texas and Alabama (listed
in order of the team's BCS rankings), remain
the nation's lone unbeaten teams. However, there
a few other teams with a zero in that right-hand
column, when it comes to conference standings.
West Virginia of the Big East, easily took care
of Cincinnati on Wednesday night, moving to
5-0 in league play. The Mountaineers still have
games remaining on November 24 versus Pittsburgh
(in Morgantown) and on December 3 at South Florida.
The Mountaineers had the Big East title in their
grasp last year but lost at home to Boston College
36-17 and at Pittsburgh (16-13), to finish the
year. This year's team shows no signs of imploding
but one never knows
TCU has already clinched the MWC title, in its
first year in the league. The Horned Frogs easily
dispatched of Colorado State last Saturday (33-6),
clinching the school's first outright conference
title since winning the SWC crown in 1958. At
7-0 in the MWC, the Horned Frogs (29-point favorites!)
need only beat UNLV in Fort Worth on Saturday,
to finish at 10-1 overall and 8-0 in league
play. Ironically, the team's only loss in 2005
came against an old SWC rival, SMU. Just one
week after opening the season by winning 17-10
in Norman versus the Sooners (as almost four-TD
underdogs), TCU lost 21-10 at SMU, a team that
is just 3-6 on the year.
At least one of college football's seven
remaining conference unbeatens HAS to
lose this weekend. Boise State and Fresno State
of the WAC (both 5-0), meet Thursday night on
ESPN. Boise State entered the WAC in 2001 and
in that very first year, ended Fresno's 17-game
home winning streak with a 35-30 victory as
a 16-point underdog. After losing at La Tech
later that year, Boise began a conference winning
streak that's reached 31 games! During
that run, the Broncos are an impressive 21-10
ATS.
Despite the fact that Boise owns that long conference
winning streak and have beaten Fresno in all
four meetings since joining the conference (winning
by an average score of 41-21 and goings 4-0
ATS), the Bulldogs are solid favorites (more
than a TD) in Thursday's game. Fresno State
is surely no slouch, as the Bulldogs are 38-5
SU at home since 1998 and enter their showdown
with the Broncos at 7-1 (only loss at 8-1 Oregon,
37-34) and ranked No. 20 in the AP (current
BCS ranking is 22).
The winner of Thursday's showdown will likely
win-out the rest of the way in conference-play
but it's no 'lock.' Boise gets an easy game
at home versus Idaho but must play at La Tech
(7-1 SU at home since 2004). As for Fresno,
after traveling to USC on December 19 for a
non-conference game, the Bulldogs must go to
Reno, where Nevada has gone 9-2 SU and ATS in
its last 11 home games. Fresno finishes the
season with a game against La Tech at home.
Getting back to the nation's top-three teams,
USC faces the one school that's given them the
most trouble the last few years. USC takes a
31-game winning streak into its game at Cal
this Saturday, as well as a 14-game road winning
streak and a 21-game Pac-10 winning streak.
Cal was the last team to beat USC, 34-31 in
triple-OT back in 2003. Cal almost beat the
Trojans last year in Los Angeles losing 23-17
and in 2003, losing 30-28. Adding some more
drama to the mix, a USC win will tie Cal's Pac-10
record winning streak of 22 straight, set from
1947-50. USC is an 18 1/2-point favorite and
will close the year with home games against
Fresno State and UCLA (Trojans have won 25 straight
in the Coliseum).
Texas, the nation's No. 2 team, goes for its
17th straight win this Saturday in Austin
against Kansas. While both Texas and USC have
won games by similar margins, Texas outscores
its opponents 48.3-14.3 with USC outscoring
its opponents by an average of 49.9-20.6, the
Longhorns are 8-1 ATS while the Trojans are
just 4-5! Texas is a 33-point favorite over
Kansas and finishes its regular season with
a visit to College Station, where the Longhorns
face the disappointing Aggies. The likely opponent
for Texas in the Big-12 title games is Colorado,
a team the Longhorns beat in Austin 42-17, back
on October 15.
While few think either USC or Texas will stumble
down the stretch, the nation's No. 3 team, Alabama
(but just 3-6 ATS), finds itself a home 'dog'
(plus-3) this Saturday to No. 5 LSU. Since losing
WR Tyrone Protho, the Tide have scored just
ONE TD in their last three SEC games.
However, Alabama owns the nation's No.1-ranked
scoring defense (8.2 PPG) and shouldn't be counted
out of any game. If Alabama escapes against
LSU, the Tide play Auburn in the "Iron Bowl"
on December 19 in Auburn. Alabama's likely SEC
title game opponent (if the team makes it that
far) is either Georgia or Florida.
The SEC saw Auburn go 12-0 last year but get
left out of the BCS title game and it seems
likely that Alabama could finish 12-0 in 2005
and also get left out. USC increased its lead
over Texas in the latest BCS standings and Texas'
lead over Alabama is SUBSTANTIAL! BCS
history says that the two teams ranked first
and second in the initial BCS poll of the season
(this year it was USC and Texas), have NEVER
gone on to meet in that year's BCS title game.
However, USC and Texas have already made BCS
history in 2005, as the same two teams have
never before been either one or two in each
of a season's first-four BCS standings. Maybe
USC and Texas are destined to meet in
Pasadena?
LOVABLE LOSERS
I can't close without listing the winless teams,
the ones with the zero in the wrong location!
Temple is 0-10 (4-6 ATS) in 2005 but gets the
week off before closing its season December
19 at Navy. New Mexico State is 0-9 (2-7 ATS)
and is home to Nevada, where the Aggies are
9 1/2-point underdogs. Buffalo, also 0-9 (5-4
ATS!) is at Kent State and the Bulls may actually
have a chance. The not-so Golden Flashes are
just 1-8 themselves in 2005 but are favored
by about a TD. Note: Buffalo also owns the nation's
longest current road losing streak with 22
straight losses.
Rice (0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS) in 2005 and owners
of the nation's longest current losing streak
at 14, plays its Homecoming game this week against
2-6 Tulane. The Owls are actually a ONE-POINT
favorite! Could it be? By the way, including
Buffalo, New Mexico State and Rice (Temple is
playing this year as in Independent), there
are still 13 schools which are still
winless in conference play entering this weekend's
action.
Larry Ness is a documented member of The Professional
Handicappers League.
Read more of his articles and get his premium
plays here.
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