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As I look at the NFL season, weeks 6 through
week 13, the favorites went 34-13 ATS in the
NFL from -1 to -9.5 chalk. This of course is
an anomaly of sorts since the average margin
of victory in the NFL is just over 5 points
per game over the last 10 years. The obvious
choice is always on the public's side when they
cover, because the betting public in general
loves to pound the favorites, public darlings
and big named teams and schools. You can usually
look at year end stats and find almost a 50/50
mix of NFL favorites covering versus underdogs
covering, there is rarely a large gap between
the two. That is not a scientific number, but
a very close ratio in terms of this article
to make an observation.
As a professional handicapper,
I like to go against the consensus and the public,
especially with late line moves in the NBA and
NFL, but lately the public has been right more
times than not in the NFL for instance (or lucky),
and in many public reports and articles I have
ready by respected Vegas handicappers and sportswriters,
it is no secret the books for the most part
in Las Vegas, and offshore have taken a beating
in the NFL. Be careful folks, because what comes
around, goes around. As a 13 year veteran, I
have had more success looking at reasons to
go AGAINST the favorites than with them, especially
in the NFL, and I look daily for reasons to
take the underdog FIRST, before I decide whether
to lay points with any given team, in any given
sport. Favorites hold value, have no illusions,
but I look for reasons to go against them before
I go with them, get my drift? The favorite in
any sporting event is the obvious choice, however
the pointspread, and value within it, holds
promise and profit for those who care to take
a deeper look at the numbers and intangibles
that carry weight when it comes to handicapping
games.
Lets talk about the
obvious and why we sometimes gravitate towards
it. Table games in Vegas casinos are popular,
lets look at Blackjack. How many times have
you seen a guy sitting on 13 with the dealer
showing a 5 or 6. How many times does everyone
check to make the dealer draw and beat them,
because it has always been the obvious choice,
and how many times have you seen the dealer
beat them? More times than not. In golf, all
of us hackers out there decide we need titanium
monster sized heads on our drivers, because
the Pro's use them and it is the obvious choice.
I have bought them myself , and my drives still
hook and they are not going 320 yards like Tiger
Woods, but I bought into public perception that
I could be straighter and longer without lessons
or hard work. How many times have you seen guys
go "all in" on pocket aces in Texas Hold'em
Poker on TV and get beat? Once again, more times
than not. The obvious choice has a downside,
bear that in mind.
Lets look now at some
College Bowl Statistics when it comes to favorites.
Since 1998, college bowl favorites are 74-104
ATS. Scary thought since there are a ton of
big favorites this year in the bowl games. I
always consider the "intangibles" when it comes
to college bowl games, for numerous reasons.
Extended travel time, a perceived easy game
by a big favorite, because do not forget, we
are dealing with 19 year old kids here. I almost
consider it a new season in terms of looking
at numbers and how they apply to the situation
to merit large spreads of 7 points or more.
I look for teams that each has played during
the season that have similar offensive and defensive
schemes to that of their bowl opponent, and
how they fared in that game, looking at boxscores
from those games to get an accurate read on
how an offense performed against a 4-3 defense
for instance. When they came up against a good
running attack and a big time running back,
how did they fare against them? There are numerous
bowl games that provide a profitable choice
on the underdog, the Sun Bowl for instance,
has featured 13 dog wins, 1 favorite has covered
and there were 2 pushes in the past 16 years.
There is just one example of underdog domination,
and in the past 31 years of college bowl games,
underdogs of 7 to 13.5 points are a solid 60%
ATS. Food for thought for sure.
If picking sports for profit against the Las
Vegas line was simply a matter of pounding the
favorites, who usually are the popular and obvious
choice, offshore sportsbooks would not thrive,
Vegas sportsbooks would shut down, and guys
like me would be out of business. Last time
I was in Vegas, I took a long look down Las
Vegas's main drag, and assured myself that it
was not built on the backs of winners who took
the obvious choice, it was built on the backs
of losers who took obvious choice. Food for
thought when it comes to bowl season, because
although there are more bowl games today than
30 years ago, no one team is there by accident
and they earned a bid by winning more games
than they lost.
Tony George is a documented member of The Professional
Handicappers League.
Read more of his articles and get his premium
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