| Here's
a look at a key AFC showdown this Sunday in
the NFL, and what you should keep an eye on.
Patriots at Steelers: When last we saw
these two, it was freezing cold in January.
Ben Roethlisberger was looking like a rookie,
with three picks, and Tom Brady was looking
like a two-time Super Bowl MVP, dissecting the
Steelers one vulnerability, the secondary, in
a 41-27 New England victory. If you check the
newspapers this week, the players are not really
talking about that game. Or the game last October
when the Steelers, on this same field, ran all
over the Patriots, 34-20. These are the two
powerhouses of the AFC. Expect a physical game,
just like the Panthers/Patriots game last week.
The keys here will be the health of QB Roethlisberger
and the Patriots offensive line. Big Ben apparently
played the Houston game on a bum knee, though
he played very well. He also took several hits
and Bill Cowher listed Roethlisberger as probable
for Sunday's game with a back injury. Big Ben
was rumored to have a thumb problem in last
year's playoff game and played poorly. The medical
staff was even seen pouring cold water on the
thumb (in zero degree weather - what was that
all about?). Big Ben will have to be at the
top of his game against the disciplined and
talented New England secondary and Bill Belichick's
schemes. The Patriots continue to terrorize
quarterbacks, as they did last season. Through
two games, they have allowed only a 44.6 percent
completion rate -- the best in the league.
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The Steelers win by running the ball first, something
they've been able to do with RB "Fast" Willie
Parker, stepping in for injured Duce Staley and
Jerome Bettis. However, the Patriots run defense
has been terrific thus far against the Raiders
and Panthers. The Panthers couldn't run the ball
Sunday and had just 250 total yards, so they appear
primed to take on the Steelers run game. New England
opened the season with their standard 4-3 defense,
but after the Raiders ran well on the opening
drive, they brought in DE Jarvis Green and changed
to a 3-4, which then shut down the Oakland offense.
Expect to see more of the 3-4 Sunday.
RB Duce Staley said he was close to playing but
it still questionable for this week's game. Halfback
Jerome Bettis is listed as doubtful again with
a knee injury. However, the Patriots appear to
have major problems on the offensive line, something
that was not a concern last season. RB Corey Dillon
has 99 total yards, just 2.7 yards per carry.
Rookie G Logan Mankins has been playing like a
rookie, and Stephen Neal had back spasms against
Carolina and missed some of the game. The Pats
running game and pass protection has been poor,
so expect Blitzburgh to attack early and often.
New England used an early reverse in last year's
playoff game to WR Deion Branch for a big game,
something designed to throw off Pittsburgh's aggressive
defense. Look for some early reverses again by
the Patriots.
Some interesting streaks are on the line, as well.
The Patriots last lost two in a row in 2002 when
they finished 9-7 and missed the playoffs. Roethlisberger
is 15-0 in the regular season, 17-1 overall, with
his only loss coming to the Patriots in last year's
AFC Championship game. The Patriots often used
a three-man rush with eight men back against Roethlisberger,
and they usually had a linebacker as a "spy."
The Steelers have home field and a revenge-spot,
having lost to New England in the AFC Championship.
New England is 14-5 SU, 12-6-1 ATS its last 19
road games, though 0-1 SU/ATS this season. Also,
the last four meetings between these teams (two
last year) all went "over" the total. Good luck,
as always...Al McMordie.
Big Al McMordie is a documented member of The
Professional Handicappers League.
Read more of his articles and get his premium
plays here.
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