BIG 12 PREDICTIONS 2005-06

big 12 Conference Preview & south Division predictions 2005-06 ncaa football picks

PT 1. - As opposed to the Big 12 North, the South division is where the power lies once again this season. Texas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M and Texas Tech are all top 25 teams and all can be given legitimate shots at taking the division title. However, Texas and Oklahoma remain ahead of the pack and are the favorites heading into 2005 not only for the Big 12 South but also for a possible National Title. The Longhorns will need to get past Oklahoma in the Red River Shootout, something they haven’t been able to do in the past five years but this finally looks to be the year it happens.

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Texas Longhorns - BIG 12 PREDICTIONS 2005-06 - conference preview

Fargo's Take Texas is in prime position to make its first ever trip to the Big 12 Championship but obviously the biggest hurdle is getting by Oklahoma. After winning three straight against the Sooners from 1997-1999, the Longhorns have been outscored by Oklahoma 189-54 the past five meetings and now it becomes an issue of whether Texas is mentally ready. It should cruise though the rest of the conference with one of the best offenses in the country.

Returning Starters on Offense - 7 Quarterback Vince Young is one of the best in the country and he has the ability to take this team on his shoulders and carry them throughout the season. One of the best offensive lines in the nation certainly helps and that unit will need to pave way for a new running back and fullback. Young will also be dealing with some very young receivers and they could be the key to the entire season.

Returning Starters on Defense - 9 The defense was very good last season and even though it didn't dominate every game, it played well enough for the offense to get the job done. This year, it will be even better with nine players coming back and having the best front four in the country. The linebackers are the only area of concern with four sophomores expected to get significant playing time. The defense allowed 27 ppg over its last four games last year and that needs to be erased from memory.

Schedule UL-Lafayette and Rice are the two non-conference home games but the big one at Ohio St. is sandwiched between them. A win there and Texas controls its own destiny toward a BCS Title game but a loss will mean the Longhorns need help along the way. The Oklahoma game is the second conference game of the season and Texas can cruise the rest of the way before its finale at Texas A&M.

Keep an eye on. The game against Oklahoma is the big one for Longhorn fans but the game against Ohio St. has a lot more riding on it. Obviously Texas isn't looking past Ohio St. but it had better get off to a better start than in years past. Texas is 5-14 ATS in its first road game of the season but the Longhorns make up for it by being 14-7 ATS in their last 21 games as a road dog including a 5-0 ATS mark when getting a field goal or less.

Oklahoma Sooners - BIG 12 PREDICTIONS 2005-06 - conference preview

Fargo's Take Oklahoma is coming off a blowout loss to USC in the BCS Championship last season and 2005 looks to be a down year but you can never count the Sooners out of anything. The schedule is in their favor and Oklahoma simply has Texas' number and until the Longhorns can get the monkey off its back, Oklahoma will keep dominating. There are a lot of question marks however and the Sooners might stumble elsewhere.

Returning Starters on Offense - 7 The running game should be one of the best in the country but the offensive line will decide just how good. The line isn't very big nor is it very deep and the most important job is to protect a brand new quarterback. Jason White is gone and a new signal caller will have to emerge right away. The receivers are thin but very talented and just need someone to get them the ball.

Returning Starters on Defense - 4 The defense needs to replace seven starters and figure out a way to stop getting burned by the pass. USC exploited the secondary in the final game last year but new personnel might make some improvements. After recording 20 or more interceptions four straight seasons, they had just seven last year. The front seven should be one of the best in the conference.

Schedule It really couldn't be any better, as Oklahoma plays just three true road games the entire season. They play both Texas and Kansas on a neutral field. The biggest test comes early with a trip to a very tough UCLA team who they defeated by 35 points two years ago and who will be looking for some payback. The Big 12 schedule isn't overly difficult after Texas as a trip to Texas Tech in the season finale could spell trouble unless the secondary has improved.

Keep an eye on. Oklahoma is just 3-9 ATS as a road favorite going back to 2002 and lost all four games as road chalk last season. The Sooners will be favored in their first road game of the season at UCLA but it is not going to be easy. The Bruins remember getting blown out in Norman two years ago and with a bye week following the Oklahoma contest, everything will be left on the field.

Texas A&M Aggies - BIG 12 PREDICTIONS 2005-06 - conference preview

Fargo's Take In order for the Aggies to contend in the South, they need to be able to win on the road as they are just 2-10 in their last 12 road games. That includes an embarrassing loss at Baylor last season, which was the start of a 1-4 run to end the season. There is plenty of talent on offense to stay in every game but the defense is a big concern and that unit will be the deciding factor on how far the Aggies can go.

Returning Starters on Offense - 9 Reggie McNeal is the heart and soul of the offense and like Vince Young from Texas, he can carry the entire team. He does have some excellent wideouts even with the loss of L'Tydrick Riley as well as a running game that should improve this year. The only drawback is an offensive line that is very young but there is experience there and it is a very big group so there is plenty of potential to get the job done.

Returning Starters on Defense - 8 After allowing six points or less in three of their first five games last season, the Aggies imploded on defense allowing 30.3 ppg the rest of the way. To compete in the Big 12, this unit will have to improve dramatically. The front seven will be better as there is a lot of depth to make things happen but the secondary is a big question mark. They finished 93rd against the pass last season and they are even younger this year.

Schedule The home schedule is very easy as the first five games should be taken without much problem before the finale against Texas. The road slate is a different story however and this is where the Aggies have struggled. Clemson, Colorado, Kansas St., Texas Tech and Oklahoma are all difficult games and every one of those can be lost. They must go 3-2 at the very least to have any chance of a big bowl game.

Keep an eye on. The opener at Clemson is enormous for this team, not just for the sake of a win but for confidence building as well. A road win could bolster some momentum for the rest of the road schedule but a loss could send them reeling early. The Aggies are only 5-17 ATS in their last 22 road contests and that includes a 0-5 ATS mark in non-conference action.

Texas Tech Red Raiders - BIG 12 PREDICTIONS 2005-06 - conference preview

Fargo's Take The Red Raiders will be using their fourth different quarterback in four years but that isn't going to slow down this high-powered offense. Texas Tech won four of its final five games in 2004 including a huge upset of California. An extremely favorable schedule will get the Red Raiders jumping right out of the gate and they should be 6-0 heading into Texas.

Returning Starters on Offense - 5 The offense was the best in the country last season in passing offense and that ranking should be matched again in 2005. Fifth year senior Cody Hodges won the starting job at quarterback as expected and even though he has only 14 career passes to his credit, he will flourish in this system. The receivers are the best in the conference and while the offensive line is a concern, it shouldn't be too bad in this type of offense.

Returning Starters on Defense - 8 Defense was always the Achilles heel of Texas Tech but a huge improvement last year could be even bigger this season. They allowed the least amount of passing yards since 2000 and with one of the best secondaries in the Big 12, another step forward in expected. Stopping the run was a problem last season but experience should make them better run stoppers in 2005.

Schedule The first part of the schedule is fairly easy but Texas Tech cannot get too comfortable after dishing out some blowouts early on. The second half of the slate more than makes up for the first half with games against Texas, Texas A&M and Oklahoma. The only good news is that the latter two opponents visit Lubbock and a split in those two could result in a 9-2 finish.

Keep an eye on. The first road game on the schedule is against Nebraska so the Red Raiders had better be ready. Texas Tech handed Nebraska the worst loss in school history as numerous Nebraska people considered the 70 points scored running it up. The Huskers will be out for some revenge and Texas Tech is just 2-6-1 in its last nine road openers. However, the Red Raiders are 12-7 ATS in their last 19 Big 12 road games.

Oklahoma St. Cowboys - BIG 12 PREDICTIONS 2005-06 - conference preview

Fargo's Take The Cowboys have a new head coach, a new offensive coordinator and a new defensive coordinator heading into this season so it will be a tough team to gauge early on. Oklahoma St. finished 1-4 last season with the only win coming against Baylor so there isn't much momentum heading into this year. The defense is expected to be one of the worst in the conference while the offense has a lot of questions as well.

Returning Starters on Offense - 6 There will be a new look on offense this season with Larry Fedora bringing his no huddle scheme from Florida. A more open attack should benefit the Cowboys who have issues at running back with the graduation of Vernard Morency. The quarterback situation is unstable as well but there should be plenty of talented receivers to get the ball to if the offensive line can provide enough protection.

Returning Starters on Defense - 7 The defense gave up plenty of points in the second half of 2004 and there doesn't look like there is much of a solution heading into this season. A new 4-3 defense will be a start but the secondary will struggle with small corners and the susceptibility to giving up big plays. The front four should be better this year but will need to cut down the 4.6 ypc average allowed last season.

Schedule The first five games of the season are at home and that is very important with brand new coaches and schemes on both sides of the ball. If there isn't a lot of progress early on, Oklahoma St. could be in big trouble down the stretch with four of its final six games on the road. The Cowboys play the top three teams in the North division so the conference slate is the most difficult of any other team in the South.

Keep an eye on. After five straight home games to start the season, a visit to Texas A&M in the middle of October is going to be a challenge. Not only are the Aggies much improved, but the Cowboys struggle away from Stillwater as well. Oklahoma St. is 7-15 ATS on the road in the Big 12 and that includes a 3-14 ATS record when getting points and only two of those games have been won outright.

Baylor Bears - BIG 12 PREDICTIONS 2005-06 - conference preview

Fargo's Take It's no surprise the Bears sit at the bottom of the division once again. Baylor is going to be a better team in 2005 and could get four wins on the season, which would be the first time since 1996. The Bears have had nine straight losing seasons and playing in the toughest division of the Big 12 isn't going to help them very much. They've beaten a team they shouldn't have in each of the last four seasons and it will happen again this year.

Returning Starters on Offense - 6 Baylor is last in the conference in most offensive units but tailback Paul Mosley has the chance to be a very special player. He is a duel threat at both running the ball and making catches and it's up to quarterback Shawn Bell to keep this unit balanced. He has a solid group of receivers to throw to and if the line improves like it should, Baylor will up its 102nd ranking in total offense from last season.

Returning Starters on Defense - 7 You have to have a strong defense to survive in the Big 12 and that is what Baylor lacks. The Bears were 110th in scoring defense last year as they allowed 34 or more points seven times. The secondary is the most experienced group and it will be asked to play some tight coverage in order for the front six to get pressure on the quarterback. The front line needs to make a lot of things happen to be successful.

Schedule Being the worst team in the Big 12 means having to play every conference game against a team that is better. Getting one win in conference action will be tough since the Bears have never won a road Big 12 game and with home dates against Nebraska, Texas Tech, Texas and Oklahoma St., even a home win will be a tough task. Don't be surprised if Baylor starts the season 3-0 with wins over Army, Samford and SMU.

Keep an eye on. It usually comes down to the opener for teams like this as a loss could quickly kill any sort of positive momentum heading into the season. The first game is at SMU where the Bears are actually favored, something that hasn't happened since a road game at North Texas back in 2000. After a 4-17 ATS run on the road between 1999 and part of 2003, the Bears have gone 5-3 ATS on the road since then.

This is Part 16 of a 20 Part College Football Preview Series from Matt Fargo. Check out future stories all summer long. 

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Big 12 North Preview By: Matt Fargo
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