Big 12 Championship Preview By: Matt Fargo
Matt Fargo remains the
NUMBER ONE handicapper in 2005 at the Professional
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Big
XII Championship Preview - COLORADO VS TEXAS
| Colorado
Buffaloes vs. Texas Longhorns 1:00 PM ET
Saturday - Big XII Championship - Reliant
Stadium - Houston, TX
Texas is just one win away from the Rose Bowl
and the BCS Championship and a likely showdown
against USC for the national championship.
The Longhorns can not get ahead of themselves
as they will be facing a Colorado team that
has struggled over its last two games and
really has nothing to lose in this spot. The
pressure is squarely on Texas but the Longhorns
have been dominating all season so a hiccup
here is very unlikely. Texas has won 18 straight
games with only four of those being single-digit
victories.
The Buffaloes backed into this championship
game thanks to an Iowa St. loss to Kansas
in overtime. The offense has sputtered, scoring
only 19 points in its last two games after
averaging 30.3 ppg through its first nine
games. Colorado is 62nd in total offense because
of a rushing game that has been non-existent
over the second half of the season. The Buffaloes
have averaged only 84.7 ypg over their last
six games after putting up 165 ypg over their
first five games.
The passing game is where this team is strong
but that didn't show last Friday against Nebraska
where Colorado threw for a season low 159
yards and averaged a season low eight yards
per catch. It was just the second time this
season that the Buffaloes were held to fewer
than 300 total yards and the first time happened
to come against the Longhorns. Texas held
them to 237 total yards as the Longhorns jumped
out to a 298-0 lead and never looked back.
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Texas scored touchdowns on
its first five possessions of that game and
the damage was done through the air. The Longhorns
threw for a season high 337 yards as the running
game was held in check. Texas rushed for 145
yards, its second lowest output of the season
but that is where the Buffaloes excel. Colorado
is second in the country in rushing defense,
allowing only 79.5 ypg and 2.4 ypc. The 145
yards allowed to Texas was a season high but
Texas rushed the ball for just 3.1 ypc.
The Longhorns finished 3rd in rushing offense
in the country so it will be strength against
strength once again. Texas will likely try
to exploit the Buffaloes passing defense that
is 95th in the country in yards allowed. Colorado
is ranked 30th in passing efficiency defense
but Vince Young is the third most efficient
quarterback in the country and that shows
in the first meeting where he completed an
astounding 25 of 29 passes. Colorado has to
find a way to control the clock as the defense
was on the field for nearly 39 minutes in
the first meeting.
Texas was a perfect 6-0 ATS at home this season
but 3-2 on the road which included a 1-2 ATS
mark when giving three or more touchdowns.
The Longhorns averaged exactly 50 ppg in their
four Big XII road games but Colorado has not
allowed that many points all season long.
The problem for the Buffaloes is that they
averaged just 22.5 ppg in their conference
road games and they finished the season just
1-4 ATS on the road. Texas surpassed the total
is nine of 11 games this season while Colorado
was 6-5 over but four of those overs came
at home.
Matt Fargo is a documented member of The Professional
Handicappers League.
Read more of his articles and get his premium
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Big
12 Championship Preview By: Matt Fargo
Matt Fargo remains the
NUMBER ONE handicapper in 2005 at the Professional
Handicappers League --- get
his premium plays here.
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