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The favorites
have had an amazing year and they refuse to
let up.
2005 ATS and O/U numbers to
date (thru week 13):
SU: 132-44-0 (75.0% @ 7.3 ppg)
ATS: 98-72-6 (57.6%) avg line -5.0
OU: 85-88-3 (49.1%) avg total 41.3
That's +18.8 units blindly
betting ever favorite on the board. Insane
numbers especially when you consider they
are -169.9 units in the 8 years prior! (-21.2
avg per season). With 5 weeks left to go no
other season has even come close to seing
these lopsided results. So this has either
been a statistical quirk or a sign of other
things that went on during the offseason and
regular season. I'm starting to think that
the way the talent has pooled heavily on some
teams during the offseason (free agency, draft)
is a big factor. Other teams like the Texans
are on the opposite end and when the good
and bad meet it hasn't been competitive. Injuries
have played a role on the lesser teams also,
especially at QB. The "rule emphasis"
with no contact and other things to open up
the passing game might also be to blame. In
the past you'd get a lesser team slow down
the receivers more, change the flow of the
game, and stay more competitive. Playing it
legitimately now means more open receivers
and they have to guard again the run differently.
The team with the playmakers at QB, WR, CB,
etc. then have gotten a bigger edge and ultimately
the cover.
Favorites in previous
regular seasons:
2004: 117-125-7 (48.3%) -20.5
units
2003: 129-118-7 (52.2%) -0.8 units
2002: 108-137-4 (44.1%) -42.7 units
2001: 114-125-7 (47.7%) -23.5 units
2000: 114-125-3 (47.7%) -23.5 units
1999: 106-122-15 (46.5%) -28.2 units
1998: 119-106-13 (52.9%) +2.4 units
1997: 100-121-13 (45.2%) -33.1 units
Just a side note for guys that
use small offshore books. Alot of new sportsbooks
pop up every year and may not be able to cover
their losses. This has happened in the past
as well. If you're using a smaller, lesser
known sportsbook I'd consider getting a good
chuck of my money out now and keep smaller
balances to be safe. Bigger, more established
books like MVP, CRIS, Pinnacle, BoDog, etc.
really aren't a concern but the iffy ones
might be in trouble if this continues. The
strange thing is that during the last month
of the season the favorites tend to do better
as the cream rises to the top in a playoff
push mode. November typically favors the dogs
in a big way but not this year.
Kevin Kavitch is a documented member of The
Professional Handicappers League.
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