2005 WAC Conference Preview

The WAC is one of many conferences that got overhauls during the offseason and the new look of the WAC is not overly impressive. Gone are SMU, Rice, Tulsa and UTEP, who all went to Conference USA, and the replacements New Mexico St., Utah St. and Idaho are coming from the Sun Belt. It’s not like these three were top tier Sun Belt teams as they were below average at best. This will be a two-team race between Boise St. and Fresno St. with a surprising Nevada squad hot on their heels.

Boise St. Broncos

Fargo’s Take The Broncos will be the team to beat once again as everyone is gunning for the three time regaining champions. Boise St. was a loser only once last season and that didn’t happen until the Liberty Bowl against Louisville. The Broncos will have a tough time matching that feat again due to their out of conference schedule but they will make another run at the top spot in the conference.

Returning Starters on Offense – 8 Five of the six skill position players return including All-WAC quarterback Jared Zabransky so the only drawback is replacing two starters from the line. The offense averaged 48.9 ppg last season and that was with just four players coming back from 2003. The Broncos have averaged 43 or more ppg in four of the last five seasons and there is no reason to believe that the offense won’t be even better this year.

Returning Starters on Defense – 8 The defense was decent last season but nothing spectacular as the Broncos allowed 31 or more points five times. The secondary needs to have a better year after finishing 99th against the pass last season. All three units on defense (line, backers, secondary) need to replace just one player so that makes it much easier in the early part of the season.

Schedule This team has goals of a BCS berth but the WAC schedule hurts as does a visit from Portland St. What would help however is a sweep of the first three games on the schedule – at Georgia, at Oregon St. and Bowling Green. Anything is possible and a 3-0 start means a trip to Fresno St. on November 12th is the only thing that stands in the way of a possible at large bid and another undefeated season.

Keep an eye on… The Broncos are 7-2 ATS following a straight up loss the last six seasons and with only a few losses the past three years, this hasn’t come up much. The tough early schedule could bring this into play this season. The goals are lofty and with this talent, a loss could mean a bloodbath for the opponent next time out.

Fresno St. Bulldogs

Fargo’s Take The Bulldogs look to be the only team in the WAC that can end the Boise St. championship run and the fact that the they get the Broncos in Fresno is a huge plus. The downside is that they have lost to Boise St. in each of the last four seasons. Fresno St. has a chance to be undefeated heading into that game which should decide the WAC Championship.

Returning Starters on Offense – 9 If you thought Boise St. was loaded, look out. The Bulldogs bring everyone back sans the tight end and left guard so this offense should be potent once again. They ranked 5th in scoring last season and 31st in total offense and those rankings should slightly improve this year with eight juniors and seniors in the first unit.

Returning Starters on Defense – 7 Fresno St. had a solid defense last season, allowing just 21.1 ppg and the bulk of that unit returns with the exception of ¾ of the defensive line. That might not be all that bad however as the Bulldogs were 70th against the run last year and their only returnee is an All-WAC DE. The points allowed from the defense has decreased in each of the last three seasons and a fourth is quite possible.

Schedule A visit from Weber St. starts everything and will be nothing more than a warm-up. Fresno St. coach Pat Hill is one to play any team anywhere and he usually gets his wish, as his schedules are usually the toughest around. This season is no exception with a trip to Oregon followed by a home date against a tough Toledo team. Don’t think this team has a cakewalk after Boise St. They travel to USC the following week.

Keep an eye on… It’s going to be all hyped up but the Boise St. game is going to be their season. This team is 8-1 since 1996 as a home underdog and depending on how things work out, the Bulldogs could be getting points once again. The good news about the game being late is that Fresno St. is 17-1 since 2001 in games in November and beyond. That late season success could push them over the top.

Nevada Wolf Pack

Fargo’s Take Nevada was a disappointment last season but I feel that the Wolf Pack are going to be the surprise of the WAC. Both offensive and defensive schemes are being tweaked for the upcoming season making Nevada a darkhorse for the league title. Chances are it won’t make it to the top but playmakers on both sides of the ball along with a favorable schedule give them an excellent shot of staying in the hunt.

Returning Starters on Offense – 6 This offense is going to make some noise again, coming off a 27th ranking in total offense and featuring the best group of receivers in the conference. Quarterback Jeff Rowe took over the starting spot in October and flourished and should be able to improve even more. They need to replace three starters on the line along with the running back but things should be in place once WAC play starts.

Returning Starters on Defense – 7 The defense last year was good at times and absolutely horrible in others. A new coordinator along with a 3-4 scheme should improve the 103rd ranked rushing defense from last season. The secondary is one of the best in the pass happy WAC so that will be a big factor once again. They allowed over 48 ppg five times last season but that should not happen this time around.

Schedule The Wolf Pack probably have the most favorable conference schedule of any team and that is the main reason they could be fighting to the bitter end. The season starts with three difficult non-conference games but those will get them ready for WAC action. They went 0-6 on the road last year but only Colorado St. and Boise St. are the tough ones this year as a 3-2 road record is vital. It’s possible the season finale at home against Fresno St. might mean something.

Keep an eye on… Nevada went 0-6 both SU and ATS on the road last season but the road opener at Colorado St. comes after playing host to Washington St. and UNLV so they will be more prepared this time around after hosting Buffalo and Sacramento St. in its first two home games last year. The line value should be good against the Rams and it will be worth keeping an eye on.

Hawaii Warriors

Fargo’s Take Hawaii is in definite transition mode after losing record breaking quarterback Timmy Chang along with four of his top receivers. An offense that retools usually needs a defense to hold the team together until the unit gels but that might not be the case here as the unit ranked 116th in total defense and 112th in scoring defense. The upside is that Jerry Glanville is the new defensive coordinator so things should be better on that side.

Returning Starters on Offense – 4 The bad news is that only four players return from the 9th ranked scoring offense in the country. The good news is that all four are on the offensive line, which will be one of the best in the conference and is always a plus in the beginning of the season when an offense is coming together. There are going to be struggles however, as this team has no starting quarterback yet.

Returning Starters on Defense – 6 With only six coming back on defense, it might be a blessing in disguise as new personnel might steer them in the right direction. Old friends reunite with Glanville trying to improve a defense that can really go nowhere but up. This might not be the worst defense in the WAC again but the prime reason for that is the fact that three Sun Belt teams enter the fray this year.

Schedule Nothing like starting the season by hosting USC then traveling to Michigan St. the following week, a team with some serious revenge on its mind. The Warriors could easily start the season 1-4 but with four of its last five games at home, anything can happen as they have one of the best home field advantages around. A November 5th trip to Nevada could decide early whether or not they go bowling.

Keep an eye on… Hawaii is a horrible traveling team as the Warriors have covered just one game on the road over the past two seasons. Last season they were outscored 231-66 in their four games on the mainland and their first game this year is at Michigan St., a team that they kept out of a bowl last year by winning the season finale. Depending on how bad they lose to USC, which will define the line, the Spartans could be a big play early on.

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

Fargo’s Take This is a tough team to dissect as the Bulldogs lost 13 starters from last season but do have a lot of experience with eight seniors replacing some of those vacancies. They’ve also had some changes in the coaching staff so the continuity of this team could be a concern early on. Head coach Jack Bicknell is in the hot seat and anything less than a winning season could mean his job but the Bulldogs should be bowl eligible come December.

Returning Starters on Offense – 5 Replacing tailback Ryan Moats will be impossible and if he stuck around for his senior season, the Bulldogs would be a major player in the WAC. But that isn’t the case so the offense is going to have to open things up and they are going to use the quarterback in a lot of option and spread formations. The interior of the offensive line is back but two sophomores will control the outside tackle spots.

Returning Starters on Defense – 4 This is where the season will be a success or failure as Louisiana Tech needs to replace the entire front line and three of the four backs in the secondary. The Bulldogs have one of the best linebacking units in the WAC but this defense ranked 92nd in scoring and 84th in total defense last year and there doesn’t look to be much improvement. Six of the seven replacements are juniors and seniors so things could be ok.

Schedule The schedule eases up from last season. This team had a brutal schedule that included non-conference games against Miami, Fla., Tennessee and Auburn. They are replaced with Florida, Kansas and North Texas and the latter two can actually be won. They face Boise St. and Fresno St. in the last two games of the season so they will be in the hunt up until that point with an easy WAC slate prior to that.

Keep an eye on… The Bulldogs are 1-12-1 ATS following a straight up win the last three years and there is every reason to believe that improves this season. Games against Clemson, Penn St., Michigan St., LSU, Miami and Auburn followed wins the last three years so it’s no wonder they couldn’t recover from a win. That changes in the first opportunity this year when they host Hawaii after defeating New Mexico St.

New Mexico St. Aggies

Fargo’s Take A new conference, a new athletic director and a new head coach are the big stories in Las Cruces and while success in the first season won’t come easy, it should be a fun ride. Hal Mumme brings in his wide-open offense and New Mexico St. should have no problem fitting into the pass happy WAC. Like any newcomer, the Aggies will struggle but there will be a game down the road which they will win that they aren’t supposed to.

Returning Starters on Offense – 7 This is going to be a fun offense to watch as the Aggies’ 24.8 ppg scored a season ago will be a distant memory. The key to this offense is the fact that four of the five offensive linemen are back so protection and run blocking will be solid. The receivers are not going to scare anyone but that is because of a lack of passing before this year and the switch of QB Paul Dombrowski to slot will pay huge dividends.

Returning Starters on Defense – 6 This is where New Mexico St. is going to struggle. The defense ranked 91st total defense and 97th in scoring defense last year and that was from playing in the Sun Belt Conference. The WAC is more explosive and even though there is good experience coming back, those numbers could get even worse in 2005. Points allowed has gone up in each of the past three years and a fourth straight increase is likely.

Schedule Welcome to the WAC even though it’s the non-conference portion that is a killer. UTEP, Colorado, New Mexico and Cal are the first four games and the Aggies won’t take a breath until Idaho pays a visit eight games into the season. The finish will be better than the start and winning the final two games could be a great confidence builder heading into 2006.

Keep an eye on… The Aggies are 11-2 ATS as a home underdog since 1998 with eight of those covers being outright wins. The first three home games will have New Mexico St. getting points, and a lot of them. With a new offense, they should always have a chance at a backdoor cover at the very least with the Aggies putting a scare into one of those opponents. The best chance for the outright win would have to be the opener against UTEP.

San Jose St. Spartans

Fargo’s Take The Spartans are another WAC team with a new coach roaming the sidelines as veteran Dick Tomey will look to turn around this struggling program. Defense needs improving, as does attendance seeing that the Spartans are dangerously close of getting thrown out of 1-A due to low fan counts. Chances are, San Jose St. won’t finish last in the WAC again thanks to a couple teams coming over from the Sun Belt.

Returning Starters on Offense – 6 A new offensive coordinator should revive an offense that sputtered at times last season. A new west coast look will rely on more balance, which will give this talented group of receivers, led by All-WAC Rufus Skillern, more legitimate opportunities. An inexperienced quarterback hurts but Adam Tafralis looked good in the spring so things could pan out.

Returning Starters on Defense – 7 The defense returns seven but that might not be a good thing. The unit was dead last in scoring defense and 108th in total defense. The Spartans couldn’t stop the run last season but Tomey is a defensive genius and he can improve them with the new attacking style he made famous at Arizona. The Spartans have been the worst defense in the WAC the last three years so something must be done and fast.

Schedule The Spartans get three teams coming over from the Sun Belt Conference which could help improve on their two wins from 2004. They lose Stanford and Washington and replace them with Illinois and San Diego St. Those aren’t easy games by any stretch but they will be good warm-ups heading into the conference slate. They have a killer eight-game stretch with six of those being on the road.

Keep an eye on… The Spartans are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite going back to 2001. This is a rarity for sure but San Jose St. has flourished against the teams that it should be beating. We probably won’t see this until very late in the season but watch the October 8th game against Utah St. as the Spartans could be a small chalk depending on how both teams come into that game.

Utah St. Aggies

Fargo’s Take Utah St. makes the jump to the WAC after finishing in a tie for last place in the Sun Belt a year ago. Add to the mix a new head coach and what we have is a team just looking to compete let alone win. There is talent on this squad but there is a lack of go-to guys and with only half of last year’s starters returning, experience is going to be an issue as well. Remember the Aggies were an independent only three years ago so while the transition may be slow, it will eventually work.

Returning Starters on Offense – 5 The biggest problem is no experience at quarterback, no experience at running back and the offensive line is thin. Ok, that’s three problems and all are very major. The Aggies ranked in the bottom six in the country in three of the four major offensive categories last season and with just five players coming back, improvements might be hard to come by. A new shotgun attack might give them a much-needed spark.

Returning Starters on Defense – 6 The defense was better than the offense last season and finished strong, allowing no more than 35 points in its final six games after allowing 48 or more in three of its first five. New head coach Brent Guy improved the Sun Devils defense over each of the last four years in his time there so he could get this unit going in the right direction as well. The secondary is very solid.

Schedule At least the Aggies will be undefeated to start the season as they should handle Nicholls St. before heading to Utah. Playing Fresno St., Boise St. and Alabama in consecutive weeks in October isn’t going to do much for their confidence but at least it will toughen them up for the final stretch. The best thing about the schedule is no back-to-back road games after having four straight and six of seven last year.

Keep an eye on… Utah St. is a putrid 7-21 ATS as a road dog of seven or more points dating back to 1998. They will be in that situation four times this year (Utah, Fresno St., Alabama, Hawaii) and with the rebuilding taking place, blowout losses are likely. That record goes to 4-18 ATS when getting two touchdowns, which will likely be the case in at least three of those four games. It could be ugly.

Idaho Vandals

Fargo’s Take Mopping up the bottom of the WAC this year will be the Vandals, the third team from the Sun Belt to make the move over. It’s not so much that Idaho will be lacking experience and depth, but the schedule is difficult with no games circled as sure wins. This team will be more competitive but that doesn’t mean that is going to produce any wins. The good thing is that there will be less off field distractions.

Returning Starters on Offense – 9 You would think a team that returns nine starters should have a successful season but that might not be the case for he Vandals. There is already a quarterback controversy and we haven’t even begun fall practice. The entire line was supposed to return but two of those players are questionable heading into the season. So basically, Idaho can return as little as six starters from an offense that ranked 99th in scoring last season and had seven games of 14 points or less.

Returning Starters on Defense – 7 This is another unit that looks to be returning a lot on paper but most of the vacancies are in the troublesome secondary. The passing defense was the strength last season and that came in ranked 81st in the country. The scoring defense allowed 39.4 ppg a year ago and a switch to the WAC should make that number jump up even more as UL Monroe and UL Lafayette, two of the best games played by the defense, are off the schedule.

Schedule The schedule is better than last year but not by much. The first three games are extremely tough non-conference tilts and after playing only three home games last year, the Vandals get just four this season. The closest thing to a win is a visit from Utah St. but even that is no guarantee. Surpassing last year’s win total of three is going to be next to impossible.

Keep an eye on… Idaho is just 2-11 ATS since 2000 when getting 20 or more points. That is a trend that is going to play a factor in its lines this season and even though the Vandals won’t break through with any big upsets, the games should be closer. There is a good possibility of them getting this many points three times this year and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them cover at least two of those with a lot of experience coming back.

This is Part 5 of a 20 Part College Football Preview Series from Matt Fargo. Check out future stories all summer long.

--By Matt Fargo ( Check Out Matt's NCAA Football Picks ) - Click Here

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