2005 Sun Belt Conference Preview

The Sun Belt did some reshuffling in the offseason and it is now a more geographically consistent league with Idaho, New Mexico St. and Utah St. going to the WAC. In comes Florida Atlantic and Florida International, who will be players sooner rather than later based on their Florida recruiting connections. This is still the lowest rated conference in the country but they play good football down south and every team will be gunning for North Texas.

North Texas Mean Green

Fargo’s Take Seeing that no conference team has defeated the Mean Green in the last 25 tries, North Texas will once again be perched at the top as the team to beat. This is the year that this team finally gets beat however and could be the first time in four years they don’t make the trip to the New Orleans Bowl. North Texas is as vulnerable as it has been since joining the conference but you have to put them at the top despite that.

Returning Starters on Offense – 5 The running game is the best in the conference and one of the best in the country with two outstanding backs. The problem could be opening holes however as the offensive line is young and inexperienced with a redshirt freshman at center. The quarterback is also green with only 12 college passes under his belt. The passing offense ranked 107th last season and shouldn’t be much better this year.

Returning Starters on Defense – 3 This is the problem area that could be the Mean Green’s downfall. The defense wasn’t great last season but it was good enough in conference play to keep opposing offenses at bay. The entire front line needs to be replaced while the only senior linebacker was injured during the spring. The secondary is also very thin and there are some explosive offenses that they will be facing.

Schedule In what is considered a possible down year, North Texas couldn’t have asked for a better schedule. They travel to LSU and Kansas St. in their two tough non-conference games but the Sun Belt slate is in their favor. Their toughest road game is their first at Middle Tennessee and then they travel to Florida Atlantic and Florida International in their only other conference road games. The schedule is their best chance of another undefeated campaign.

Keep an eye on… North Texas is 9-2 ATS as a home favorite of eight or more points since 2001. This team has been able to beat up on the rest of the conference but there is a ton of parity in 2005 this year. The Mean Green are the conference public favorites for obvious reasons and seeing that they went 7-0 ATS in the Sun Belt last year, they will most likely come out of the gate overvalued.

UL-Monroe Indians

Fargo’s Take I believe the Indians have the best chance at dethroning North Texas even though they have to make the trip to Denton this season. Their non-conference schedule is tough but should get them ready for the season. The Indians had only one win two years ago and improved that win total to five last year. Adding another couple wins to the total in 2005 in not only possible but is likely.

Returning Starters on Offense – 9 This is going to be a great offense with one of the best quarterbacks in the conference who can both pass and run. The offensive line is extremely young but all four sophomores either started last year or saw a lot of playing time so those growing pains should be gone. There is explosion from the receivers and durability from the backfield meaning the Indians’ 106th ranking in scoring will no doubt go up.

Returning Starters on Defense – 7 The defense is being listed as having between five and eight starters returning and that is due to the platooning that took place last season. The unit loses a couple playmakers but it is deep and experienced. The Indians allowed 27.5 ppg last season but that comes down over four points when taking the non-conference portion out. In total, nine juniors and seniors will be starting and will improve the defense even more.

Schedule Wyoming, Georgia and Arkansas are part of the non-conference portion of the schedule but those three losses won’t matter much. The Indians get to play four of the seven conference games at home where they went 3-1 last season. Two of the road games are at North Texas and Middle Tennessee, which isn’t easy, but a split is possible.

Keep an eye on… The Indians have been a horrible team coming off a win, going 3-14 ATS following their last 17 wins. This is a trend that we should see a reversal of this season. The first game is against Northwestern St. and then they travel to Wyoming, a team that is high on a lot of lists this season. We should be getting a ton of points and this offense should be able to keep up with the Cowboys.

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

Fargo’s Take This is another team with a ton of people returning that should make some serious noise in the Sun Belt. The Blue Raiders went 5-6 last season including a 4-4 record in the conference with two of those losses by a touchdown or less. If they win one of those games, they would have been bowl eligible although they probably wouldn’t have gotten an invite. They ended the season 5-2 excluding a loss at Florida and that is something to build on heading into this season.

Returning Starters on Offense – 8 This offense is going to be an explosive offense once again. It would surprise many to know that the Blue Raiders ranked 15th in the country in passing offense last season and with quarterback Clint Marks under center again, that ranking will be challenged. Middle Tennessee can use improvement in the running game, which should come this season with both running backs returning. The offensive line will be strong as well.

Returning Starters on Defense – 8 The defense had problems last year and didn’t finish especially strong but with the bulk of the unit coming back, they will no doubt be improved. The pass defense was a sieve, ranking 112th in the country but a year of experience can do wonders. The defensive line is experienced and deep and after ranking 45th in rush defense, they should give the Mean Green a challenge.

Schedule Speaking of the Mean Green, North Texas comes to Murfreesboro in the second game of the season which is the conference opener. That follows a sure loss at Alabama but there will be no letdown after the Tide. The other non-conference games are at Vanderbilt and hosting Akron, both of which can be won. A game at NC State comes late while four of their seven conference games are at home.

Keep an eye on… Middle Tennessee plays North Texas very early this season and with the experience the Blue Raiders have, the matchup comes at a perfect time. North Texas is retooling on defense and the Blue Raiders should be ready to go on offense. Plus, they can stop the run, which is the Mean Green strength. The Blue Raiders are one team that gives North Texas fits, having lost by no more than 10 points in each of the last four years (6.8 ppg). This could be the year.

Troy Trojans

Fargo’s Take Troy was a huge surprise last season with wins over Marshall, Missouri and a four point loss to LSU. Things will be different this season as the Trojans lost a lot on both sides of the ball and return the fewest amount of players in the entire conference. Even though they had some big wins last season, they also had some bad losses, getting beaten by Arkansas St. and New Mexico St. Making it back to a bowl in 2005 won’t happen.

Returning Starters on Offense – 4 The offense was bad enough last season now the Trojans need to basically start fresh, beginning with their offensive line that needs to replace four of five starters. The quarterback is returning although he was ranked last in the conference in pass efficiency last year. A new tailback is replacing the school record holder and a true freshman will be starting at receiver. Basically, this is an offense that is going to struggle.

Returning Starters on Defense – 4 The defense was the cornerstone of this team last season as they ranked 16th in total defense and 10th in scoring defense. The entire line needs to be replaced and there will be only one senior in the entire two deep. The linebackers are the strength of the unit and they will need to carry the defense early on. To make matters worse, the defensive coordinator split for Clemson.

Schedule Troy opens with Cal Poly but then three losses follow against UAB, Missouri and South Carolina. The Trojans missed North Texas last season but they must travel to Denton this year. Four of their conference games are on the road and none are easy. They finish at home against Middle Tennessee but at that point, they may be only playing spoiler.

Keep an eye on… Troy didn’t cover once as a road favorite last season and I certainly don’t expect them to again this time around. Depending on their start, they might be road chalk in later Sun Belt games based on the reputation from a season ago. This team should get better as the season progresses but the Trojans went 2-4 away from home last season and that is when they were a much better team.

UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns

Fargo’s Take The Cajuns are another team that can finish anywhere from first to fifth in the conference. They have improved slightly in each of the past three seasons and I emphasize slightly. Even thought they went 4-7 last year, three of those losses were by a field goal and another was by four points. While it doesn’t look good in the record, it does show that the Cajuns are close and they return a majority of starters from last season.

Returning Starters on Offense – 7 This unit really slipped at the end of last season and that was the main cause for the 1-5 finish. Everyone who was anyone last year returns including quarterback Jerry Babb who also led the team in rushing. He will get some help in the backfield with a trio of backs that need to produce again – rushing totals increased by 56 and 36 yards in each of the past two seasons. Although he will miss the opener, WR Bill Sampy is the go to guy on offense and his extra year of eligibility is huge.

Returning Starters on Defense – 6 The passing defense was the best in the conference last year but the rushing defense was 107th in the country, allowing over five ypc for the second straight year. The secondary took the biggest hit in graduation but the decline shouldn’t be severe. The Cajuns allowed only 19.3 ppg over the final four games and they allowed over 40 points just once and that was to Kansas St. The potential is there but stopping the run is priority number one.

Schedule Louisiana opens the season at Texas but it gets much better after that. Five winnable games follow with three of those being at home. The problem lies over the second half of the schedule as they have to travel to North Texas, Middle Tennessee and UL-Monroe, teams that should all be in front of them. Winning one of those games is a must but it likely isn’t going to happen.

Keep an eye on… The Cajuns have not covered as a home favorite of more than a field goal since 1995. They are 0-8-1 ATS in that span but something tells me that string gets broken this year. Home games against Central Florida, Florida Atlantic and Florida International should put them in the favorite roll and all three of those games should be won. They have been a favorite of more than 4.5 only once in six years so the chalk won’t be huge.

Arkansas St. Indians

Fargo’s Take The Indians likely won’t have a shot at the conference crown but a winning record is a possibility. They showed signs of getting over the hump last year but close losses cost them dearly. Arkansas St. needs to find focus every time out as they lost to Memphis and Ole Miss by a combined 15 points but were shelled by Middle Tennessee and Idaho by 42 points total. The non-conference slate is easier this year and that might help the confidence, which could be most important.

Returning Starters on Offense – 4 This is a big area of concern since four of the five offensive linemen need to be replaced. The line last year paved the way to a 64th national ranking in rushing offense while allowing only 20 sacks. The entire backfield is experienced including QB Nick Noce but the receivers will be raw with no starters coming back. The Indians finished 103rd in scoring offense last year, scoring 17 or less points five times. The defense isn’t good enough for a repeat of that.

Returning Starters on Defense – 6 The defense is switching to a 4-3 in 2005 which will make things more simple and hopefully help in stopping the run. The scoring defense was just as bad as the scoring offense, coming in at 102nd in the nation. The secondary is going to be young and the dismissal of LB Josh Williams, the country’s leading freshman tackler, is going to be huge.

Schedule Missouri and Oklahoma St. are on the non-conference schedule but those are the only two real dingers compared to four last season. Army and Tennessee-Martin replace LSU and Memphis so a couple wins this time around are possible. The Indians have four Sun Belt home games, but like Lafayette, they travel to North Texas, UL-Monroe and Middle Tennessee. Five wins out of this schedule is a must.

Keep an eye on… It might not be the best home field advantage in the country but the Indians have played well as a home dog going 13-4 ATS since 1999. They are 9-1 ATS when getting a touchdown or more but they might not see that many points this season based on their opposition although they got 13 from Troy last year and the Trojans visit in November.

Florida Atlantic Owls

Fargo’s Take The Owls finished 9-3 last season but they had 21 starters back from the previous season and that isn’t the case this year. This is their first full season at the 1-A level so there will be no Northern Colorado, Texas St. and Edward Waters on the schedule in 2005. Atlantic did defeat Hawaii, North Texas and Middle Tennessee last year so the record isn’t all that deceiving. However, there are too many uncertainties and the first year will be a tough one for the Owls.

Returning Starters on Offense – 4 The Owls will be breaking in a whole new pass/catch combo but the experience is there to not be totally shut down. The offensive line will be 3/5 new so blocking for their best runner Aaron Sanchez, who is actually a fullback, might be a challenge. The offense mustered only 30 points in its final three games against 1-A opponents last season so the going might be slow with new personnel.

Returning Starters on Defense – 4 The defense was awesome a year ago, allowing just four opponents to score more than 20 points while averaging 17.2 ppg allowed. But again, it wasn’t a full 1-A schedule and three of the four highest point totals came against teams at the higher level. Seven starters need to be replaced including the majority of the front line so keeping the trend of decreased rushing averages the last three years will come to an end. The secondary remains strong with two outstanding corners.

Schedule This will obviously be the toughest schedule the Owls have ever faced and they are certainly going in strong with games against Kansas, Oklahoma St., Minnesota and Louisville with the Cowboys being the only team coming to Boca Raton. The Sun Belt schedule isn’t overly tough even though four games are on the road. North Texas, UL-Monroe and Middle Tennessee are the three toughest but all three are home games.

Keep an eye on… The October 15th battle with Middle Tennessee should be interesting. The Owls have defeated the Blue Raiders in each of the last two seasons so Middle Tennessee will be coming into this game with some revenge and won’t be taking Florida Atlantic lightly. To make matters worse for the Owls is that the Blue Raiders will have two weeks to prepare.

Florida International Golden Panthers

Fargo’s Take Florida International is also entering its first full season of 1-A football and the Golden Panthers could easily end up the worst team in the country. They have never defeated a 1-A opponent, losing all five games by an average of 13.6 ppg. This team gets a ton of returning players back but the talent isn’t overly impressive. Coming from Florida, the talent will eventually come but it isn’t going to show this season.

Returning Starters on Offense – 9 The entire offensive line is coming back with four seniors and a junior but the unit isn’t very big, averaging only 300 lbs across the board. They will be blocking for a freshman tailback so the running game will be average at best. An experienced quarterback and receivers to go along with a new spread offense should provide some strikes down the field but protection will be a problem.

Returning Starters on Defense – 8 Even if the offense somehow finds a way to flourish, the defense isn’t going to keep the opposition down enough to win games. Playing against eight 1-AA teams last year, the Golden Panthers allowed 478.8 ypg including 203 ypg on the ground. Eight seniors will be part of the starting defense this year so the experience might improve the numbers slightly but with the jump in class, there won’t be a dramatic jump.

Schedule The schedule compared to last season will be like night and day. The Golden Panthers still get two 1-AA opponents on the slate but also coming on are Kansas St. and Texas Tech. They likely won’t have a 1-A victory this season with the season finale against Florida Atlantic being the only possible chance. Both 1-AA games are at home so a 2-9 season is likely although Western Kentucky is a tough draw as it beat Florida International by 21 points last year.

Keep an eye on… The season is going to be a long one but the team should get better as the season progresses so keep a watch on the lines late in the season. The Golden Panthers will be getting over 40 points in the first two games and will most likely be getting double digits most of the season. They certainly aren’t a team you should be playing but there isn’t going to be enough value to go against them either. Standing on the sidelines is the best bet this year, at least early on.

This is Part 6 of a 20 Part College Football Preview Series from Matt Fargo. Check out future stories all summer long.

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