2005 Mountain West Conference Preview

MOUTAIN WEST Conference Preview

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The MWC was represented in a BSC game for the first time ever last season thanks to Utah’s perfect season. The Utes ran the table last year and were not challenged even once by an opponent. They will come down to the rest of the pack in 2005 with the loss of their coach and All-American quarterback. Also, the conference is getting stronger with Wyoming, BYU and Colorado St. ready to return to the top. The addition of TCU only strengthens the MWC even more. It is wide open with any of the top six teams having a chance at winning the conference.

Utah Utes PREVIEW

Fargo’s Take Utah had a magical season a year ago but a repeat of that will be impossible as too many pieces are missing from that undefeated run. Despite all of the losses, this is the team to beat in the conference and even though I think they won’t be at the top come season’s end, I can’t go against them. They will lose a game they shouldn’t and that will open the door for another team to take over the reigns.

Returning Starters on Offense – 5 The loss of Alex Smith, Paris Warren and Steve Savoy is going to sting as will the departure of offensive guru Urban Meyer and offensive coordinator Mike Sanford. Most of the offensive line returns which will be a big help for a new quarterback. The running game has experience and will aide in bringing around the passing game. The offense ranked third in both scoring and total offense last season but a top 40 finish in each is likely this time around.

Returning Starters on Defense – 5 The defense was forgotten in 2004 because of the offensive success and it will be up to the stop unit to carry the team until the offense can find its way this season. They must replace six starters and the defense surprisingly allowed the most yards per game in the past six years but it was still above average. Overall, they are deep and will once again be one of the top units in the conference.

Schedule The schedule is pretty tame with a trip to North Carolina being the only non-conference roadie. Arizona and Utah St. visit followed by a Thursday trip to TCU that could have early season implications on the conference race. A four game stretch in October and November isn’t easy but all four games should be won. That leads to the showdown at rival BYU that could decide the conference.

Keep an eye on… Utah is 14-2 ATS since 2001 against non-conference teams and the Utes will get a test right away as Arizona visits on September 2nd. The Wildcats were improved last season and were one of only two teams to lose by 17 points, the smallest margin of victory for Utah in 2004. They should be even better this year and Utah will likely be an overpriced public favorite to start the season.

Wyoming Cowboys PREVIEW

Fargo’s Take The Cowboys were the surprise team in the conference a season ago and they went on to defeat a decent UCLA in the Las Vegas Bowl. Wyoming has a lot coming back on both sides of the ball and should be able to carry some momentum heading into the fall. The one downfall of the Cowboys was that they played a very weak schedule last year so it will be hard to judge their early part of the season.

Returning Starters on Offense – 9 The offense returns nine starters on a team that scored 20 or more points six times and that number should increase this season. Wyoming averaged 26.5 ppg last year and that team had just five players coming back. The running game is a big question mark with a couple of freshman likely to start the season. The offensive line is strong with four of the starters back.

Returning Starters on Defense – 8 The defense has improved in each of the two seasons since Joe Glenn took over and with the entire secondary coming back, they should improve once again. The front four is tabbed as weak but three starters are back and all are seniors. The linebackers took the biggest hit but there is plenty of depth. Last year, the defense allowed less than 400 ypg for the first time in five years.

Schedule The slate is more difficult this season as 1-AA Appalachian St. is replaced with new conference foe TCU. The season kicks off with a game at Florida and after a home date against UL-Monroe, two tough road games follow at Air Force and at Mississippi. The next three games are at home but they end the season with three of four on the road, taking their home field edge away late in the season.

Keep an eye on… This has only come up three times in five years but the Cowboys are 3-0 ATS following a win and playing on the road as dog. Wyoming faces Air Force after hosting UL-Monroe and the Cowboys will be getting some points in that game. It’s a big game as they go to Mississippi the following week and a loss would likely have them start out at 1-3. It’s an early must win.

TCU Horned Frogs PREVIEW

Fargo’s Take TCU enters its first season in the MWC and it makes so much sense as the Horned Frogs are geographically better off which is going to help recruiting as well. They’ll hit the ground running, literally, with one of the best backfields in the conference. TCU was killed by injuries last season and it cost the Horned Frogs a bowl berth for the first time in six years. That should change this year.

Returning Starters on Offense – 5 Experience is coming back at quarterback, running back and wide receiver but it won’t matter much if the offensive line doesn’t produce. Only two starters are coming back along the line and even though there are some veterans there, they are small and ranked as one of the worst in the league. Their development will determine if TCU can stay in the top 20 in scoring and total offense.

Returning Starters on Defense – 7 The Horned Frogs took a huge step back last year, allowing over 100 yards rushing per game for the first time in years and giving up a whopping 33.9 ppg, up 12.7 ppg from 2003. Some experience returns to all positions and there are upperclassmen in 16 of the 22 spots on the two-deep chart. A better rush on the passer is needed as the secondary was chewed up for 264.5 ypg.

Schedule The schedule starts off difficult but then eases up at the end. A game at Oklahoma starts the season and after a trip to SMU, Utah comes calling in TCU’s first ever MWC game. BYU, New Mexico and Wyoming follow with the final five games all very doable. The problem down the stretch could be fatigue as the Horned Frogs are the only team in the conference without a bye week.

Keep an eye on… The first few conference games will tell a lot. These are all brand new opponents and if they struggle in the first few MWC games, they could struggle all season. Even though the competition gets lighter down the stretch, there is no previous film and experience to go from. TCU is just 3-7 ATS the last three years against non-conference foes and that is basically what this year is going to be.

BYU Cougars PREVIEW

Fargo’s Take There is optimism at BYU this season with a new offense that is more spread out and a defense that improved toward the end of last season. Following a 12-1 record in 2001, the Cougars have had three straight losing seasons, which cost Gary Crowton his job. It’s up to Bronco Mendenhall to restore the winning tradition in Provo and things already look to be going in the right direction.

Returning Starters on Offense – 7 The majority of the offense is coming back and with a new spread attack similar to that of Texas Tech, scoring should not be a problem. The rushing game was awful for a second consecutive year while sacks were on the ride. Experience on the line will help as will the new offense that is designed to get rid of the ball quicker. The Cougars scored more than 24 points only four times last year.

Returning Starters on Defense – 6 The defense ranked in the lower half of the country last season but improved as the year progressed. Only three starters came back last season so there were growing pains. BYU allowed 18.5 ppg in its last four games before playing Utah so the defense definitely tightened up. The secondary is very young this season which is the biggest concern, especially in a pass happy conference.

Schedule USC is off the schedule and that makes things better right there. The cougars start with Boston College and Eastern Illinois at home and then have a quick bye, which might not be a very good thing so early on. The MWC is split in half with a trip to Notre Dame, a team looking for some revenge, in the middle. They get Utah at home in the season finale.

Keep an eye on… BYU is only 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games as a road favorite. The Cougars weren’t in that spot last season but should be favored at San Diego St. and UNLV, the two bottom teams in the conference. The trend should start going the other way as those two teams are going to have two of the worst defenses in the MWC and BYU should be able to light up the scoreboard in those two road games.

New Mexico Lobos PREVIEW

Fargo’s Take The Lobos can win the conference or finish as low as seventh. It all depends on the health of tailback DonTrelle Moore, who had offseason knee surgery and will be out right up until the opener. The running game is a huge part of the Lobos offense so if he can’t last, they could be in trouble. Last year was the first season since 1999 that New Mexico didn’t increase its win total but it had to end sometime.

Returning Starters on Offense – 8 Even with a healthy Moore, New Mexico will try and throw the ball more and the Lobos have the talent at quaterback and at the receiver position so there can be success. The Lobos ranked 108th in total offense last season and 101st in scoring offense so things definitely need to improve. The offensive line remains strong and one of the biggest around.

Returning Starters on Defense – 6 The defense carried the team once again last year and there is enough talent and experience to do it again even though the Lobos need to replace the majority of their starters. New Mexico finished in the top 25 in both scoring and total defense and it allowed 17 or less points six times and didn’t give up more than 28 until its bowl game. Nine juniors and seniors will be starting.

Schedule This could be the downfall of New Mexico. The Lobos start they year with a conference game against UNLV, which is a good thing but there is a stretch of four road games in five weeks that could really hurt. They have to travel to TCU, Wyoming and Utah so the conference slate is not an easy one. An early road game at Missouri could show us a lot of what this team is made of.

Keep an eye on… New Mexico is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 games as a single-digit road dog. The Lobos have won six of the last seven outright and with such a good defense, they will always be in the game. They should be in this situation in their first four road games and winning two of those outright is not out of the question. The status of Moore will have an impact on the lines and the outcomes as well.

Colorado St. Rams PREVIEW

Fargo’s Take Similar to BYU, the Rams are looking to get back up toward the upper half of the conference after a disappointing 4-7 campaign. This team has the ability to make a run at the MWC Championship but there are some unknowns still that might keep them in the middle of the pack. If everything comes through as expected a shot at the title is more than possible. The Rams have the most returning starters of any team in the conference.

Returning Starters on Offense – 10 Nearly everyone is back with the only starter that needs to be replaced is at left guard. Quarterback Justin Holland is back from his broken ankle and if he played all of last season who knows what might have happened. One thing is for sure and that is that Colorado St. is going to run the ball more as the Rams finished with the lowest rushing averages in the 11 years Sonny Lubick has been head coach.

Returning Starters on Defense – 8 The defense was a major problem last season but again, a good number of veteran players are back. The unit allowed 31 or more points five times last season which resulted in a 29.5 ppg average, 80th in the country. Like the offense, the rushing defense was the biggest problem as they allowed an incredible 221.7 ypg, nearly 70 yards more per game than the previous year. It will be better but the front is still young so there is no definite answer for sure.

Schedule The team should be able to find out how it stands after the first two games against Colorado and Minnesota. Whether or not the Rams come out of those contests with a win shouldn’t matter, as it will get them ready for conference action. The next three games are at home including big games against BYU and Wyoming. Three of the final four games are on the road which is never a fun way to end the year.

Keep an eye on… Colorado St. is 1-8 ATS as a favorite of 17 or more points since 1999 and the Rams overall have not been a good chalk team going 21-32 ATS the past seven years. They should be big favorites twice this season against Nevada and San Diego St., but be careful about laying the wood. The defense is still too vulnerable to be laying big numbers as the back door cover will be possible.

Air Force Falcons PREVIEW

Fargo’s Take Air Force is another of the MWC teams that has dropped off considerably after being near the top on an annual basis. Youth and injuries were part of the problem as was a defense that yielded the most points per game in four years. Returning starters in three of the past four seasons were six, six and eight so winning as much as the Falcons did was an accomplishment but that eventually caught up. Now, it might be going the other way.

Returning Starters on Offense –7 Sophomore Shaun Carney will be starting at quarterback and the good thing about that is the fact that he started nine games as a freshman and picked up an offense both on the ground and through the air. The backfield is a question mark but there is starting experience at every position on the offensive line, which can help ease the transition.

Returning Starters on Defense – 5 This unit was a huge disappointment last season and there doesn’t look to be much in the way of improvement heading into 2005. Four of the five returning starters are seniors but the best player could be sophomore linebacker Marcus Brown. The Falcons allowed 200 ypg on the ground last year and they allowed 37 or more points five times. The offense won’t be good enough to outscore opponents.

Schedule The schedule doesn't do Air Force any favors early on as four of its first six games are on the road with all four being difficult. In total, the Falcons have just five home games with Army being the only non-conference game in Colorado Springs. Getting the Commander-In-Chief Trophy back will be tough, as the Falcons have to travel to Navy to get it back.

Keep an eye on… The game at Navy splits the schedule in half and this will be considered the most important game of the season at least at that point. The Falcons have been without the hardware for two straight years now and head coach Fisher DeBerry has made that his top priority this season. Navy will be down this season with only six starters coming back so this could be the year the trophy is returned.

San Diego St. Aztecs PREVIEW

Fargo’s Take Another disappointing season in 2004 put the Aztecs in the wrong direction of what looked like was going to be a turnaround after a .500 season in 2003. The time is now for head coach Tom Craft or he could be gone by the end of the year. The offense needs to improve and the defense needs to replace a lot. This could be a surprise team if everything comes together sooner rather than later.

Returning Starters on Offense – 9 The offense needs to improve considerably but things are looking up. The quarterback situation is still up in the air but there is experience at every other position. The offensive line is huge and can pave the way for running back Lynell Hamilton who is back after missing all of last season with a broken ankle. The receivers are some of the best in the conference and should take some of the pressure off the quarterback situation.

Returning Starters on Defense – 4 The defense was decent last season as it held six opponents to 21 points or less. Only four starters return but the secondary will be the most experienced which is big since the defense was 75th in the country in passing defense last season. The linebackers are young and the depth is thin with the entire second unit being freshmen. Stopping the run was good last year and the Aztecs need to reproduce that.

Schedule 0-3 is looking like what The start of the season is going to be for San Diego St. A trip to Air Force can be won and if so, that can build some great momentum heading to Ohio St. the following week. Remember this team was very close to winning at Michigan last year and at Ohio St. the previous year. The difficulty of the conference schedule is fairly balanced between home and road games.

Keep an eye on… The game at Ohio St. look like a rout on paper but the Aztecs lost to the Buckeyes by three points two years ago and by three points to the Wolverines last year. It’s a guarantee that Ohio St. will not be taking this team lightly but another close game wouldn’t be a huge surprise seeing that the Aztecs are 10-1 ATS when getting 14 or more points on the road which will be the case against Ohio St.

UNLV Rebels PREVIEW

Fargo’s Take It’s definite transition time in Las Vegas as the Rebels have a new coach in Mike Sanford, a new offense revolving around young players and a defense reloading with new personnel. 2004 was a disaster for UNLV and the fact that the Rebels are starting over is a very good thing. John Robinson retired but he didn’t leave the team in total shambles and there are positives that can be built upon.

Returning Starters on Offense – 5 The offense is Sanford’s specialty as he was the coordinator at Utah that saw plenty of points so there will no doubt be an improvement to the 95th ranked scoring offense of 2004. Nine of the projected starters are juniors and seniors so the learning curve of a new offense might not be long. The biggest need is at tailback where experience is lacking.

Returning Starters on Defense – 3 This is where the biggest project needs to take place but the defense was 98th in points allowed last year so any new people coming in should only help. While there are only three returning starters, there will be some good experience but little depth. The biggest problem lies at linebacker where the top five players are gone and only one senior is on the two-deep chart. Defensive line will need to play its best early on to keep the rest of the defense together.

Schedule The schedule is the best part about the upcoming season as the three non-conference games can all be won if the Rebels get the right bounces going their way. Even though two are on the road at Nevada and Utah St., both are in the weaker WAC so they can be had. They host Idaho in the third game, which should be a win. The WAC is evenly balanced as they get Utah at home but TCU and Wyoming on the road.

Keep an eye on… While the three non-conference games seem like wins, the Rebels have not been good in recent years coming off wins. UNLV is just 2-11 ATS since 2001 in the game following an outright win. That includes a 0-8 ATS record as a favorite and we could see that when the Rebels travel to Utah St. if they win at Nevada. That could be a stretch though.

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By: Matt Fargo
Matt Fargo remains the NUMBER ONE handicapper in 2005 at the Professional Handicappers League --- get his premium plays here.