2005 MAC Conference Preview

The MAC continues to gain respect across the country as teams such as Miami, Toledo, Bowling Green and Northern Illinois have all grabbed national attention. The departure of Marshall to Conference USA would have hurt about four years ago but there is an abundance of teams that took the spotlight away from the Thundering Herd to make this one of the best mid-major conferences in the country. The aforementioned four teams will be vying for the championship in 2005.

Bowling Green Falcons Preview

Fargo’s Take The Falcons make the move over from the West to the East and will give Miami a challenge for the division crown. Bowling Green will be a very hungry team this year after throwing away a chance to play in the MAC Championship last season after blowing a huge lead at Toledo. The Falcons were one of the best in turnover margin last season and they have been on the plus side in four of the last five years so keeping that pace should not be an issue.

Returning Starters on Offense – 6 One of the best offenses in the country last season returns most every playmaker including All-American quarterback Omar Jacobs. This guy was unstoppable last year and while trying to match the numbers from last season will be tough, he should have another outstanding season. The offensive line needs to replace three starters but the two coming back are both all-conference players and there is plenty of experience in the new starters.

Returning Starters on Defense – 6 This is a very experienced defense and will once again be very tough against the run. The stats showed that the Falcons finished 104th in passing defense last year but that is very deceiving. Teams had to play catch-up and were forced to throw the ball more in garbage time. Bowling Green led the MAC in pass efficiency defense and with four seniors in the secondary, they will be even stronger this time around.

Schedule The Falcons play their first three games on the road this year with tough games at Wisconsin and Boise St., a game in which 200 points could be scored. The next six games are all easy wins but then the division deciding games loom with a trip to Miami followed by a visit from Toledo. The Falcons should be undefeated in MAC play coming into those games with revenge on their side in both contests.

Keep an eye on… The non-conference part of the schedule is tough with the Badgers and Broncos waiting. Bowling Green is 9-1 ATS in last 10 non-conference games but a lot of those games were against teams not ready for the Falcons. They are no longer flying under the radar and no one is going to take them lightly. They will be dogs in the two big games mentioned above and those are two of the toughest places to go into and snatch a victory.
Bet on the Green Falcons >>

Miami Ohio RedHawks PREVIEW

Fargo’s Take Miami is the team to beat as the RedHawks are reigning division champions while they bring back a ton of starters. Miami slipped somewhat last season with an 8-5 record following a magical 2003 campaign. The RedHawks should definitely improve on that record as the schedule is in their favor along with some of the best talent in the conference. A new coach is roaming the sidelines but Shane Montgomery has been the offensive coordinator the last four years so the transition will be smooth.

Returning Starters on Offense – 8 The scoring offense finished 22nd in the country last season and should improve even more this year. The offensive line brings back four starters, which will help ease in a new starting tailback. Quarterback Josh Betts finished the season strong last year and will get great protection from his veteran line and the return of receiver Martin Nance, the 2003 record holder in receiving years, will help ease the loss of Michael Larkin.

Returning Starters on Defense – 7 This will be one of the best defenses in the conference despite the fact that only one assistant coach on that side of the ball is coming back. Nine seniors will be starting for the defense that finished 34th in total defense in 2004. They allowed 88 points to Michigan and Cincinnati but allowed only 19.1 ppg in their other 11 games.

Schedule The schedule is not overwhelming at all and certainly gets better after the opener at Ohio St. Rival Cincinnati is at home this season while Temple is the only other non-conference game on the slate. The MAC schedule couldn’t be better as they don’t play Toledo and get Bowling Green at home. The toughest road game is at Northern Illinois while the other three road tilts are all easy wins.

Keep an eye on… Miami is 8-1 ATS at a home favorite the past two seasons with six of those covers being as double digit home chalk. It’s obvious the big lines don’t bother Miami, as the RedHawks are 18-5 ATS in their last 23 as double-digit favorites and 10-2 ATS when laying less than 20 points. We can expect four games this year where they will be laying more than 10 and their first will be against Central Michigan, which follows the game at Ohio St.
Bet on the Redhawks >>

Kent St. Golden Flashes PREVIEW

Fargo’s Take Kent St. will need new quarterback Michael Machen to step up right away as the loss of Joshua Cribbs will definitely sting. One thing the Golden Flashes have going for them is the fact that they won their final four games last season and even though the competition wasn’t much, it provides a great mental boost heading into this year. Spring practices were reported to be very good and confidence seems to remain in place heading into the fall.

Returning Starters on Offense – 5 Replacing Cribbs will be next to impossible but Machen stepped up in the spring and seized control of the offense. He will have a very experienced offensive line protecting him, which will also help in breaking in a new tailback. His receivers are solid and experienced so that will also help early on in the season.

Returning Starters on Defense – 7 This was the top ranked defense in the MAC last year and 17th in the country in total defense. The unit was able to stop the run and defend the pass so there is no big weakness heading into 2005. The linebackers and the defensive line are two of the best units in the conference and it will be up to the entire defense to hold strong until the offense comes around.

Schedule A trip to Michigan St. and a visit from Miami highlight the first three games on the schedule. The conference portion is the best it can possibly be with the three toughest games all taking place in Kent. SE Missouri St. and Navy are the other non-conference games and with a relatively easy road schedule, a third place finish is likely as challenging for the division crown will be difficult.

Keep an eye on… The Golden Flashes play solid when in the dog role as they are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games when getting points. They will no doubt be getting points on a few occasions this year and with a solid defense to keep them in games, more of the same success should transpire. They have covered five of the last seven as home dogs and will be getting points from Miami, Northern Illinois and Bowling Green when they visit. Bet on the Golden Flashes >>

Akron Zips Preview

Fargo’s Take Like Kent St., the Zips will have to replace a four year starter at quarterback but unlike the Golden Flashes, they don’t have an offensive line to provide support. The defense will be average at best so there isn’t a chance for that unit to carry the team early on. Akron is coming off its best season ever at the division I-A level but surpassing or even matching last year’s success will be tough.

Returning Starters on Offense – 5 It’s obvious that the loss of quarterback Charlie Frye is the most serious but a close second is the offensive line that needs to replace four starters. A new quarterback and offensive line spells trouble. Brett Biggs will need to duplicate his efforts in the backfield for this offense to go anywhere. Despite an experienced unit last year, the Zips were just 88th in the country in total offense and 62nd in scoring offense.

Returning Starters on Defense – 7 The defense finished 87th or worse in the four major defensive categories last year and with only four seniors starting in 2005, they might be taking a step backwards. The secondary is the only strength with all four starters coming back but the Zips did finish 8th in the MAC in pass efficiency last year so it isn’t a dominating unit. The defensive line is the weakest in the conference.

Schedule The schedule could be worse but it could be better as well. Visits to Purdue and Middle Tennessee start the season followed by the home opener against Northern Illinois. The Zips travel to Miami and Bowling Green and the only significant break in the schedule comes at season’s end with three games that can be won. By then however, it might be too late and the season could already be over.

Keep an eye on… Akron is 7-0 ATS since 1995 when getting more than two touchdowns at home. That will likely happen once this year when Northern Illinois comes calling. The line will depend on how bad the Zips get beat at Purdue and Middle Tennessee so we could be getting some value if it goes over 14 points. The Huskies face Miami the following week so a look ahead is a definite possibility. Bet on the Zips >>

Ohio Bobcats preview

Fargo’s Take A high profile head coach shows that Ohio is looking to turn around a football program that has just two winning seasons in the last 23 years. The transformation into a winner isn’t going to happen overnight but a couple years down the road might have the Bobcats competing for a conference title. Frank Solich knows how to win and that attitude along with improvements in recruiting has Ohio fans looking toward the future but that future doesn’t include 2005.

Returning Starters on Offense – 6 Ohio struggled last season on offense as the Bobcats went to a one back passing attack after using the option in years past. It didn’t work and Solich will be looking to obtain more balance this season and that means running more option. The offense ranked 102nd in scoring and 105th in total offense last year and it must replace 3/5 of the offensive line that allowed a whopping 52 sacks a season ago.

Returning Starters on Defense – 7 The defense finished just outside the top twenty last year and with seven players returning, an improvement is possible. The Bobcats have one of the best secondaries in the conference along with a solid bunch of linebackers. The defense is going from a 3-4 to a 4-3 and that should help up front as stopping the run is going to be the deciding factor in how the defense performs overall.

Schedule A 0-3 start is almost a guarantee with tough games against Northwestern, Pitt and Virginia Tech. The good news is that the MAC road slate isn’t impossible with Bowling Green being the only definite loss. However, the home portion ends with visits from Toledo and Miami so any progress the Bobcats make in October will be for naught.

Keep an eye on… Ohio is only 3-12 ATS as a road favorite since 1997 and a visit to Buffalo on October 29th might put them in that role once again. The Bobcats have been double-digit favorites the last two trips to face the Bulls and they lost both games outright by a combined score of 70-17and losing the covers by a combined 82 points. Buffalo isn’t going to be very solid but it could be in a good spot. Bet on the Bobcats >>

Buffalo Bulls preview

Fargo’s Take Buffalo is going to be an improving team in 2005 but whether that results in more wins remains to be seen. The Bulls have a lot of experience coming back and if they can find a quarterback to lead the offense, Buffalo could be the surprise of the conference. However, the signal caller is not in place and until that happens, Buffalo is still at the bottom of the standings. Even if they do improve, the rest of the MAC is improving at a faster pace so moving forward will be a challenge.

Returning Starters on Offense – 6 The success of this unit all comes down to the quarterback. The Bulls finished 113th in passing offense last season and ended with just five passing touchdowns compared to 15 interceptions. The running game is decent thanks to an offensive line with three seniors and one junior but that isn’t going to carry the Bulls over the top. With all of the great MAC offenses around, Buffalo simply cannot keep up.

Returning Starters on Defense – 9 The defense improved significantly last year, lowering its scoring defense average by 5.2 ppg and its total defense by 74 ypg from the previous year. The Bulls still finished 94th in scoring defense but with nine players back and in the second year of the 4-2-5 defense, things could get better. The defensive line is one of the best in the MAC but the secondary is where the most improvements need to be made.

Schedule Buffalo starts out with three games against the Big East and while they aren’t against the best in the conference, they will be hard pressed to keep any close. Following games against Akron and Western Michigan, the Bulls face Bowling Green, Toledo and Miami in a span of four weeks. There is no sure win on the schedule but there are four games that could go either way.

Keep an eye on… This is a horrible road team. Buffalo is 5-12 ATS on the road when getting three or more touchdowns and has lost its last five when getting two or more touchdowns. The Bulls have won only three of 39 road games since joining division 1-A and have not covered in 10 of their last 13 road games. I expect more of the same in 2005. Bet on the Bulls >>  

<< CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP TODAY TO BET ON ALL THE GREAT GAMES IN STORE FOR THE MAC COLLEGE FOOTBALL CONFERENCE >>
 

By: Matt Fargo
Matt Fargo remains the NUMBER ONE handicapper in 2005 at the Professional Handicappers League --- get his premium plays here.