2005 MAC Conference Preview

The MAC continues to gain respect across the country as teams such as Miami, Toledo, Bowling Green and Northern Illinois have all grabbed national attention. The departure of Marshall to Conference USA would have hurt about four years ago but there is an abundance of teams that took the spotlight away from the Thundering Herd to make this one of the best mid-major conferences in the country. The aforementioned four teams will be vying for the championship in 2005.

MAC West - Toledo Rockets preview

Fargo’s Take The Rockets will look to defend their MAC title and this could be one of the best Toledo teams ever. Toledo returns a ton of talent including one of the best and most consistent quarterbacks in the country. Both coordinators need to be replaced but there isn’t going to be a lot of changes of schemes, especially on offense, since there is no reason to fix something that isn’t broken. The Rockets have won 30 of their last 31 at home but only have five games at home this season.

Returning Starters on Offense – 6 Toledo was 11th in total offense and 15th in scoring offense last season and with quarterback Bruce Gradkowski returning, the offense expects to not miss a beat. The biggest shoes to fill won’t be all-time leading receiver Lance Moore but will be All-American tackle Nick Kaczur. The good news is that three starters are back from that offensive line along with two quality running backs.

Returning Starters on Defense – 7 A very young defense last season got some great experience and should get better in 2005. The total defense was 89th in the nation and even though they allowed 31.1 ppg last season, most of that damage was done in the first two games. That average drops to 25.3 ppg when those first two are factored out. The defense is going to have a lot of looks this year, which will be beneficial in improving the unit.

Schedule Only five home games on the schedule hurts but the road games aren’t overwhelming. A non-conference game at Fresno St. and the finale at Bowling Green are the two biggest tests but both can be won. At the same time, both can be lost. Toledo should be 8-1 at the very least before its final two games that will likely decide the champions of both divisions.

Keep an eye on… Toledo has one of the best home field advantages in the conference and in the country for that matter. The Rockets are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite of a touchdown or more and we should see that scenario three times this season against Western Michigan, Eastern Michigan and Buffalo. Toledo has been at least 3-1 ATS as a home chalk in five of the last six years. Bet on the Rockets >>

Northern Illinois Huskies preview

Fargo’s Take Unfortunately for the Huskies, they are the second best team in the MAC West and until they can beat Toledo, this is where they will remain. Northern Illinois has dropped 11 straight meetings against the Rockets and this isn’t going to be the year it snaps the streak, as they have to travel to the Glass Bowl. As opposed to years past, the Huskies aren’t going to sneak up on anyone.

Returning Starters on Offense – 6 The running game of the Huskies is one of the best in the nation with two backs that could start for most teams in the country. They do have an inexperienced quarterback but Phil Horvath has taken a good number of snaps and the quality of the running game will ease him along. Three seniors and two juniors anchor a small but experienced line.

Returning Starters on Defense – 6 Six players return but this is still a young defense with only five seniors on the two-deep chart. Last season, the Huskies yielded the most yards per carry on the ground in five years but that should improve as the defensive line has the most depth on that side of the ball. This season, the secondary is the question mark with the departure of two key players. There is just one senior in the entire defensive backfield and depth is an issue.

Schedule Well, it all comes down one game and it’s already circled on the calendar. A trip to Toledo on November 16th will likely decide the division as long as both teams hold serve. The Huskies start the season with two Big Ten games, the first being a trip to the Big House to face Michigan. Northern Illinois doesn’t play Bowling Green and it gets Miami at home early in the year.

Keep an eye on… The Huskies are 9-3 ATS since 1999 as a single digit favorite and they will get a chance to increase that when Miami comes to town October 5th. A win over the RedHawks means a showdown with Toledo will likely be for all the marbles since the four games in-between are all against cupcakes. If for some reason Miami comes in a small favorite, the RedHawks are 1-6 ATS their last seven as a road favorite of less than a touchdown. Bet on the Huskies >>

Eastern Michigan Eagles preview

Fargo’s Take The offense in Ypsilanti will be a powerful unit and there will be a lot of high scoring games because the defense is going to struggle once again as well. The Eagles finished .500 in the MAC last season but losses to Eastern Illinois and Idaho by a combined seven points were tough to take and prevented Eastern Michigan from having a winning record overall. One big variable is that the Eagles have one of the best kickers in the country with Andrew Wellock.

Returning Starters on Offense – 7 The unit finished 21st in the country in total offense and averaged 12.7 more ppg than it did in 2003. That is a huge jump and with all of the skill position players returning, another successful offensive season is pretty much a guarantee. The Eagles scored 31 or more points six times last year after accomplishing that only once in the previous season.

Returning Starters on Defense – 5 The problem was that the defense allowed 31 or more points in 10 of the Eagles’ 11 games and they were next to lasting the country in points allowed with 41.6 ppg. That has to decrease dramatically for 2005 to be a successful season but it is going to be difficult to achieve. Only five players return and while that might not be a bad thing based on last year’s numbers, there is not a lot of depth or experience to fill the holes.

Schedule Eastern Michigan will be hard pressed to make a run at the top of the conference as it has just four true home games. Three can be won but the road slate includes Cincinnati, Michigan, Toledo and Northern Illinois, which are four likely losses. The neutral site game against Western Michigan will likely determine whether or not a 6-5 season will happen but the last three games on the schedule can and should be won.

Keep an eye on… The first three games of the season are against non-conference opponents and the Eagles are 7-40 SU and 8-25-1 ATS since 1990, including 0-3 ATS as a favorite, when playing outside the conference. This could be the year that they finally break though as a home date against UL-Lafayette on September 10th is the best chance for a win. The Eagles will be a small home chalk and should be able to pull it out. Bet on the Eagles >>

Central Michigan Chippewas preview

Fargo’s Take A good offense and a bad defense will be the common theme for the bottom teams in the MAC West and Central Michigan is no exception. After a very slow start, the offense started to show signs of life in the latter part of the season and that bodes well heading into 2005. Three of the wins last season were by a combined seven points while two of the losses were also by a combined seven points. A 6-5 finish or a 1-10 finish were both very possible last year and now it’s time to get over that hump.

Returning Starters on Offense – 7 The Chips have one of the best tailbacks in the MAC with Jerry Seymour and now that quarterback Kent Smith is more comfortable in the spread offense, the pressure can be taken off the running game. After averaging 18.2 ppg in the first six games, Central Michigan averaged 30.2 in the final five games and even though a 4 OT game skewed the numbers somewhat, it was definitely a move in the right direction.

Returning Starters on Defense – 6 See Eastern Michigan. The Chips are in the same boat with an offense that is going to produce and a defense that is going to give up a ton. The scoring defense and total defense both finished 105th in the country last season and after allowing no more than 27 points in their first four games, they allowed that many in six of their final seven games. The secondary is young and comes into 2005 as the worst unit in the MAC.

Schedule The schedule isn’t the easiest with the game at Penn St. being the only definite non-conference loss. They host Indiana and are at Army so those can be taken. The MAC road games are soft with the exception of a trip to Miami in the second week of the season. Home games against Toledo and Northern Illinois are by no means easy or even winnable but at least they are at home.

Keep an eye on… This team is going to score and keep some games close that they probably shouldn’t. Central Michigan is 7-1 ATS since 2001 when getting three touchdowns or more and we are likely going to see that in two of its first three games at Miami and at Penn St. None of those ATS wins have been outright wins and it won’t happen this year either but the backdoor is always going to be open. Bet on the Chippewas >>

Western Michigan Broncos preview

Fargo’s Take The Broncos have fallen considerably. This was one of the most explosive offenses in the country five years ago and the man that led that unit on the sidelines is back as the head coach as Bill Cubit takes over the program. This is going to be a fun team to watch once again but only if you aren’t a lover of defense. With 15 starters coming back from last season, a move in the right direction is possible but it will be a small move if that.

Returning Starters on Offense – 9 A lot experience returns with eight juniors and seniors on the starting unit. The problem last season was a falloff at the end of the season as the offense scored no more than 21 points in its final four games after averaging 26.4 ppg in its first seven games and that included one shutout at Virginia Tech. A new system was needed and Cubit had some explosive offenses when he was the offensive coordinator in the 90’s.

Returning Starters on Defense – 6 See Eastern Michigan and Central Michigan. This is the third team in the MAC West that is going to struggle on defense. Western Michigan finished 115th in total defense and 114th in scoring defense last year and the ppg average goes from 39.6 ppg to 43.6 ppg when throwing out the zero points allowed against 1-AA Tenn.-Martin. There are just three seniors on the unit and another long season is expected.

Schedule The Broncos play five home games this season and all five have a chance to be won depending on how the defense progresses throughout the season. The slate starts with games at Virginia and Toledo followed by four games against the two worst teams in the MAC, Temple and 1-AA Southern Illinois. Western Michigan only has three true conference road games but they are Toledo, Bowling Green and Northern Illinois so there isn’t much of a break. At least they miss Miami.

Keep an eye on… The Broncos are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games when getting double digits going back to 2003. Western Michigan will be in that spot in the first two games of the season and even though the offense will be better, the offenses they are facing are even stronger and the Broncos don’t have the defense to keep pace. Two blowouts are expected early. Bet on the Broncos >>

Ball St. Cardinals preview

Fargo’s Take The Cardinals could be in for another long season and unlike most MAC teams, the offense is not going to be very productive. They lost their best playmaker to the NFL a year early and the defense is still very young and very inexperienced. The win totals have decreased in each of the last three seasons but Ball St. is in rebuilding mode and given the youth on the squad, this could be a team that could make a run down the road but it won’t be this year.

Returning Starters on Offense – 6 The offense took a huge hit when receiver Dante Ridgeway declared early for the NFL draft. The Cardinals finished 98th in scoring offense and 96th in scoring defense in 2004 and it is going to be a slow process to improve those rankings. The one positive is an offensive line anchored by three seniors that will need to open holes for a new starting tailback after last season’s leading rusher was dismissed from the team.

Returning Starters on Defense – 9 The defense is young with eight sophomores and juniors on the first team. The unit allowed 35 or more points seven times last season and with the firepower in the conference this season, that probably will be matched again this year. The defense finished 100th or worse in all four major categories and opponents’ scoring has increased in each of the last four seasons topping out at 36.8 ppg last season.

Schedule The schedule is brutal once again with non-conference games at Iowa, Auburn and Boston College. The Cardinals have just four home games this season and the first two are against Bowling Green and Toledo. The season will likely start out with eight straight losses before the final three-game stretch that might salvage a couple of wins.

Keep an eye on… Ball St. is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games when getting double digits and that trend will likely continue as the defense is not good and the offense will be progressing very slowly. The first four games on the schedule will find the Cardinals being a dog of 10 or more and it will be very surprising if any of those games are close. If those games were on the back end of the schedule, it might be a different story. Bet on the Cardinals >>

This is Part 7 of a 20 Part College Football Preview Series from Matt Fargo. Check out future stories all summer long.

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By: Matt Fargo
Matt Fargo remains the NUMBER ONE handicapper in 2005 at the Professional Handicappers League --- get his premium plays here.