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We all look at matchups and stats when assessing
point spreads and potential winning angles.
Another area most noticeable in college sports
is emotion. Sometimes things happen on and off
the field that can affect a team's attitude.
Rivalry games, bounce-back spots and revenge
situations are several.
One factor cropped up on Saturday. Last week,
undefeated USC dropped to No. 2 behind Texas
in the bowl championship series standings after
being No. 1 all season. Coach Pete Carroll dismissed
the slip, but several players said after the
game that they used it as motivation.
"It's definitely something in the back of our
minds," said WR Steve Smith. "What are they
doing? They're messing us up. We just have to
show them on the field." And they did, not only
winning but covering as a 30-point favorite.
USC amassed a season-high 745 yards and the
defense shut down Washington State's high-powered
attack, 55-13. It worked, too, as USC grabbed
back two first-place votes from Texas in Sunday's
AP poll.
One of the plays I had Saturday was South Carolina.
I thought Tennessee was vastly overrated based
on its play and erratic offense this season,
and the Gamecocks were getting no respect as
a +14 dog. South Carolina had never won at Tennessee,
and there was the extra emotion of Steve Spurrier
against Phil Fulmer. Sparks often fly, both
on the field and off, when those two hook up.
It was also interesting that Randy Sanders resigned
as Tennessee's offensive coordinator on Monday,
two days after the Volunteers lost their third
straight game with another weak performance.
Tennessee's offense is one of the worst in the
country, averaging 16 points a game. They are
99th in total offense, 98th in rushing offense,
79th in passing offense and 101st in passing
efficiency, all factors as to why they have
been overvalued.
Emotion certainly played
a roll when Notre Dame hosted USC a few weeks
ago. All the money came in on the Irish as a
double-digit dog, and the public and sharpies
were right as Notre Dame not only covered easily
but came within a few seconds of winning.
The Miami/Virginia Tech matchup this week is
going to elicit emotion, as well. Both teams
have a good rivalry and are fighting for the
top spot in the ACC Coastal division. This week
some players from Miami were talking about their
last trip to Blacksburg in 2003, when the Hokies
ripped them, ending a long Miami win streak.
Players and coaches do recall many times what
happened in recent years. Think back to the
Oklahoma/Texas game a few weeks ago. The Texas
players delighted in pouring it on a Sooners
team that had beaten them 5 straight years.
Channeling emotion can be a big edge - of course,
you then have to have the talent on the field
to help make an upset possible.
Bryan Leonard is a documented member of The
Professional Handicappers League.
Read more of his articles and get his premium
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