2005 BIG 12 NORTH PREVIEW

big 12 north preview - college football predictions

PT 2. - The Big 12 North was a pretty mediocre division last season as only two teams, Colorado and Iowa St., finished with a .500 conference record. There doesn’t look to be much of a difference for this season as no team is ready to dominate the division. What it lacks in star power is made up for in parity, which makes for an exciting race with all six teams having a legitimate chance at taking home the crown. Only two games separated first place from last place in 2004 and it will be very surprising if it isn’t as close again this season.

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Colorado Buffaloes - COLLEGE FOOTBALL PREDICTIONS

Fargo’s Take After flipping a coin, I came up with Colorado to win the North. Ok, a coin really wasn’t flipped but it is next to impossible to pick a clear-cut winner and the Buffaloes get the nod based on having the most experience coming back in 2005 with 17 starters returning. Colorado ended last year winning four of its final five games so that type of finish can be a huge confidence boost heading into the new season.

Returning Starters on Offense – 7 The offense was very inconsistent at times last year, scoring 30 or more points four times while being held to 14 points or less four times as well. Seven players come back including quarterback Joel Klatt, who was as inconsistent as one could be. The running game needs help but four of the top five receivers are back including All-Big 12 tight end Joe Klopfenstein.

Returning Starters on Defense – 10 This is where the team expects to shine. The Buffaloes finished 2004 94th in the country in total defense but 61st in scoring defense, as they held their own when backed up. The mission this season is to improve the rushing defense even more as it has gotten better in each of the past three seasons. The linebackers and secondary have a chance to be some of the best in the conference.

Schedule The schedule is good for any team in the North since five games are all within the division. It comes down to who they play in the South and Colorado gets no breaks with Texas, Texas A&M and Oklahoma St. on the schedule. The annual showdown with Colorado St. leads things off followed by a home game against a tough New Mexico team and then a fatal trip to Miami.

Keep an eye on… Colorado hosts Missouri on November 5th which is the middle game of its five game stretch against North opponents. This team has been nearly unbeatable in the month of November as the Buffaloes are 19-3 ATS in their last 22 games in that month. They get two home games and the one road game is at Iowa St., which should be the toughest of them all but they are 12-1 ATS on the road in November.

Iowa St. Cyclones - COLLEGE FOOTBALL PREDICTIONS

Fargo’s Take What a year for the Cyclones last season as they made it back to a bowl game thanks to a 4-1 regular season finish. A missed field goal prevented a perfect 5-0 finish but the bowl win over the Miami RedHawks made up for it. Iowa St. can take the North with consistent play once again and because the Cyclones were 12th in the nation in turnover margin last season, some of the close wins they got last year might not happen this time around.

Returning Starters on Offense – 7 Quarterback Bret Meyer had a great season as a freshman but he will be asked to improve even more, especially in the passing game. He has a solid group of receivers and an explosive running game to keep the opposing defenses honest. The offensive line is young but there is some good experience coming back. The Cyclones have to improve their 97th ranking in scoring offense.

Returning Starters on Defense – 7 The defense was the heart and soul of the team in 2004 although not much was made of it. The Cyclones allowed 21.6 ppg on the season but only 17.4 ppg in their final five games. After allowing 34 or more points three times in their first five games, they didn’t allow a team to score more than 25 the rest of the way. That will carry into this season and they could be one of the best.

Schedule The non-conference schedule is pretty nice with games against Illinois St. and Army and the Cyclones get to host Iowa. Three of their five North games are on the road but the toughest is at home against Colorado. They really caught a break as far as the South schedule goes. They must travel to Texas A&M but get to host Baylor and Oklahoma St. as both Oklahoma and Texas are not on the slate.

Keep an eye on… The Cyclones travel to Nebraska for their first North division game and it could set the stage for the rest of the season. This is a streaky team as Iowa St. is 21-10 ATS following a win and having Army the prior week will likely result in a victory. The Cyclones have not had success against Nebraska having never won in Lincoln and are 2-9 ATS in their 11 trips there.

Missouri Tigers - COLLEGE FOOTBALL PREDICTIONS

Fargo’s Take The Tigers have been one of the biggest underachieving teams in the Big 12 the last four years and now it’s time for this team to step up. After an 8-4 season in 2003, high expectations were on Missouri last season but a 0-5 run after starting 4-1 left the Tigers under .500 for the fifth time in six years. The defense needs to replace a ton from last season and if they can get together a running game, the Tigers could surprise.

Returning Starters on Offense – 7 Brad Smith enters his senior season and he is one of the best in the conference and will be asked to carry the load once again. The backfield is very young as is the offensive line, which is one of the worst in the Big 12. The running game needs to improve in a hurry to take some pressure off Smith or another long season on offense is on the horizon.

Returning Starters on Defense – 3 The defense was one of the best in the conference last year and even though eight guys need to be replaced, this unit will still be one of the best around. There is a lot of experience despite there not being a lot of starts. The three starters who are coming back are some of the best and will be the leaders. Stopping the run was not a strong point last season and that needs to improve.

Schedule The Tigers start with a neutral site game against Arkansas St. but it’s in Kansas City so it isn’t really all that neutral. They then play five of their next six games at home with Texas and Iowa St. being the two biggest and toughest. While that might be a nice start, ending the season with three road games in the final four is not although all three roadies are possible wins. Baylor is the lone home game in that stretch.

Keep an eye on… The second home game of the season has the Tigers facing Troy, a team they lost to last season on national TV and with the Trojans in a rebuilding year, this one could get ugly. Missouri is 11-6 ATS in its last 17 revenge games at home where it is favored. The Tigers are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 as a double-digit home favorite, which will surely be the case here.

Nebraska Cornhuskers - COLLEGE FOOTBALL PREDICTIONS

Fargo’s Take Oh how the mighty have fallen. Nebraska is coming off its first losing season since 1961 and head coach Bill Callahan is already feeling the heat. The good news is that the new system he implemented last season will be in its second year so things should get better. A fast start could do wonders and there is no reason this team shouldn’t start out 4-1.

Returning Starters on Offense – 6 Nebraska will feature one of the best running games in the conference but the offense no longer revolves around it 100 percent. A new quarterback is in the mix this season since last year’s signal caller Joe Dailey decided to transfer which is probably a good thing. The offensive line is the wild card as this huge unit could be the difference.

Returning Starters on Defense – 5 The Huskers finished an unheard of 110th in the country in pass defense last year so replacing three of the four starters in the secondary is a step in the right direction. The defense never recovered from the 70-point pasting put on by Texas Tech, as Missouri was the only team it held to under 27 points the rest of the way. The front four will be one of the best in the Big 12 once again.

Schedule Starting off with five straight home games is good for any team but it should especially help the Huskers who are in dire need of some confidence. Maine and Wake Forest are the first two victims and Nebraska must find a way to win two of the next three against Pittsburgh, Iowa St. and Texas Tech. Four of the final six games are on the road and one of those home games is Oklahoma.

Keep an eye on… The final game of the opening five-game homestand is against Texas Tech and because the Red Raiders handed Nebraska its worst loss ever, you know the Big Red will be out for blood. It’s homecoming and this will be Texas Tech’s first road game of the season. It all sets up well for some Nebraska revenge but whether it can do it or not is another story. See how the first four games pan out.

Kansas State Wildcats - COLLEGE FOOTBALL PREDICTIONS

Fargo’s Take Kansas State is another team that has descended very quickly and last year was the first losing season and non-bowl appearance since 1992. There aren’t many expectations in Manhattan this season and that could be the best thing for this team. The Wildcats went 3-4 at home last season but lose that one extra home game this year which will be the first time they have only six home games since 2001.

Returning Starters on Offense – 5 Only one starter is back on the offensive line and that is going to be the difference this season. There is no experience in the backfield to make things happen so the running game is going to struggle. The quarterback position is junior Dylan Meier’s to lose and he will have some experienced and talented receivers to throw the ball to as long as he gets the protection he needs.

Returning Starters on Defense – 5 The defense took a big step back last season, allowing more points in 2004 than in the two previous seasons combined. The yards per carry average was over four while passing yards per game topped 200, both of which were the highest in the past eight years. This will be just an average defense again this season especially the secondary that is still very young.

Schedule The cupcake schedules of the past are long gone but the Wildcats still prefer to throw in a couple of easy wins which is the case this season with Florida International and North Texas on the home slate. The Big 12 opener is at Oklahoma but they do avoid Texas for the second straight year. Kansas St. doesn’t play back-to-back home games until the beginning of November.

Keep an eye on… The first road game of the season is at Marshall and how the Wildcats perform should dictate what type of season it’s going to be. Marshall came into Manhattan two years ago and pulled out the victory so the Wildcats will be looking for some payback. It will be tough however as Kansas St. is a slow starter away from home as it has dropped 17 of its last 23 road openers against the number.

Kansas Jayhawks - COLLEGE FOOTBALL PREDICTIONS

Fargo’s Take Just because Kansas is listed sixth here doesn’t mean it can’t win this division. The Jayhawks went 2-6 in the conference last season but five of those losses were by single digits and the loss at Oklahoma was the only one on the entire season that was by double-digits. Both Oklahoma and Texas are on the schedule so they must come up big in the other games to have a shot at the division title.

Returning Starters on Offense – 6 The quarterback situation is a mess and so is the running back position as John Randle was dismissed from the team leaving a big hole at tailback. The offensive line is the strength on this side and it will have to open some big holes and provide some serious protection for the quarterback. The receivers should be solid with All-Big 12 Mark Simmons leading the way.

Returning Starters on Defense – 8 The defense was a solid unit last season finishing 34th in the country in scoring defense. In order for Kansas to move up, it will have to be even better this season and that is not out of the question. The Jayhawks feature two defenders on the preseason all conference first team, which is huge for this program. There is experience everywhere and it will show once again.

Schedule Three home games start off the schedule and the Jayhawks should be 3-0 heading to Texas Tech which begins a four game stretch of three road games and one neutral site game. That neutral site game just so happens to be Oklahoma. The Jayhawks close out with three home games in their final four and while all three of those could be won, all three could be lost. Texas is the one road game sandwiched in there.

Keep an eye on… Texas Tech is the first road game of the season for Kansas and the Jayhawks lost by a single point to the Red Raiders at home last year. They have the defense to slow down the Tech offense but not to stop it and their own offense can’t go point for point. Kansas is just 10-26 ATS against the Big 12 on the road since joining the conference and that includes a 6-17 ATS mark when getting double-digits.

This is Part 15 of a 20 Part College Football Preview Series from Matt Fargo. Check out future stories all summer long.

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Big 12 North Preview By: Matt Fargo
Matt Fargo remains the NUMBER ONE handicapper in 2005 at the Professional Handicappers League --- get his premium plays here.