2005 AFC South Preview

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1. Indianapolis Colts 12-4

No doubt the tools are in the shed and sharpened for 2005, expect greatness from this team, they should dominate their division and the AFC this season. This team has managed 24 wins the past 2 regular seasons, with a high octane and unstoppable offense via the arm and magic of Peyton Manning and company. Defense is the name of the game late into the season, and the Colts have suffered from a small DL and the big plays against their secondary, but overall, all the key components are back on offense and this should be one of the top 3 teams in the AFC and NFL overall.

OFFENSE- These guys are superstars all over the field, and offensive coordinator Tom Moore has the player, Payton Manning, to lead the way again in 2005. Ranked #2 overall in the NFL on offense, and #1 in passing offense, the trio of WR\'s are back with all world Marvin Harrison leading the way, a 1-2 punch at RB with James and Rhodes, and QB Peyton Manning is set to break about every NFL record before he is done. Simply put, the most prolific offense in the NFL and well disciplined too. Manning takes little chances and has not only Harrison, Wayne and Stokely, but Dallas Clarke at tight end. The line is above average and the schemes they run are diverse and hard to contain. They should average at least 24 ppg this season and be on cruise control most of the time.

DEFENSE- Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeny are all world on the line and should anchor a B+ defense this season. The KEY for the Colts is to improve a 29th place ranking overall in the NFL last season. They gave up over 375 yards per game in 2004, and in order to win a championship and play in the Super Bowl, that has to change. The defense was young in 2004, and all key players remain in tact or have been upgraded. The linebackers are getting better and all of them return, led by Rob Morris, Cato June and David Thorton, they should be a step better in 2005. The secondary gave up too many big plays, but they picked up Marlin Jackson out of Michigan as their #1 pick at CB, and he will be a good one. The first 4 picks in the draft were all defensive players, youth is prevalent in this roster, but some experience steps in this season. Look for improvement. Tony Dungy will have to step in and coach this group this year, the offense is in good hands.

SUMMARY- With an improving defense, and the offense remaining the same, the Colts are a VERY dangerous team, and one that I feel on November 7th, can knock off New England as they have a bye week before that crucial match-up. I do not think the Colts will lose more than 4 games, and they are a \"team\" and stand together and have revenge on their minds, they have playmakers all over the place, along with a great coaching staff, special teams, and a solid track record as a unit. I think this is their year unless a key player like Manning goes down. Look for the Colts to dominate.

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2. Jacksonville 10-6

Look for the Jags to continue to improve under Jack Del Rio\'s system, and they could be deep in the playoff race this season, and I feel are ready for the next level in all respects. This is a team poised to be a dark horse in 2005. The defense will hold opponents at bay, and if the offense can be productive on a consistent basis, look out!

OFFENSE- This offense needs more point production, bottom line. I feel QB Bryon Leftwich has to have a breakout year. He has the ability to lead from behind and make big plays, but he needs more consistency to be a major factor. At running back, when Fred Taylor is not injured, he is one of the top 4 backs in the NFL, bar none. If he stays healthy, this offense can be balanced and rock solid. The WR\'s are above average with Jimmy Smith at stud status, rookie Matt Jones (QB from Arkansas who has 4.3 speed at 6\'5\"), and Troy Edwards. This unit needs to gel somewhat and make big plays, and I think they will. Depth is an issue on offense, and being ranked 29th in the NFL last year in scoring will improve if they stay healthy. Look for more scoring from this unit in 2005. The line allowed 32 sacks last year, but should be better this season, and they drafted well in this area. Overall if they crack the Top 18 in offense, they will be a contender.

DEFENSE- The strength of this team lies here. They are hard to run on, have 2 Pro Bowlers on the line in Stroud and Henderson, and they have improved their secondary with CB\'s Terry Cousin and Kenny Wright. The linebackers get a new coach, and they need one, this unit HAS to step up and stop the run and short passes better, with Mike Peterson leading the way. The line is solid, the secondary has filled some holes and they will be stiff for anyone to go up against. An above average unit that is aggressive and makes plays.

SUMMARY- Youth and depth are key factors in the Jags success, but this coaching staff is solid, and this team is never out of a game until it is over. With that enthusiasm, and some key talent on defense and offense, and a solid special teams unit, this is a dangerous team. There are some question marks, especially at linebacker. The schedule is not kind early, going up against 6 playoff teams from last year in their first 7 games, but if they can weather the storm there with a 4-3 record, they can and will get better as the season rolls along. With youth and talent, confidence will play heavy in the second half of the season, do not count the Jags out. A for sure "go with" team later in the season.

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3. Houston Texans 9-7

Like many others in the NFL this off-season, this is a team the cleared out the cupboards after losing to the Browns in the last game in 2004. The natives are restless in Houston, and Dom Capers needs 9 wins or more this season in my opinion to keep his job. Rising star David Carr at QB is really one of the top 10 QB\'s in the NFL, it is just his talent pool around him is average at best. The defense needed help as well, and they cut 5 starters from last years roster, so there are some question marks for the Texans, and they are in a very tough division to take to long to figure it out. I think they are year away, but they will compete at a high level this season

OFFENSE- Young QB David Carr has been sacked 140 times the past 3 seasons, so shoring up an inept offensive line is KEY for the Texans. They picked up tackle Victor Riley from the Saints in free agency, a better pass blocker than they had, but Weigert and Wand have to step up with zone pass blocking in order for Carr to utilize his talents, because he has some weapons. Pro Bowl WR Andre Johnson is a top caliber wideout, in addition to Corey Bradford, Jabar Gaffney and rookie Jerome Mathis who has 4.2 speed out of Hampton University, a steal in the 4th round. The tight end position is very weak, and they really do not have an outlet guy at that position. The running game is led by Domanick Davis, with 3 players behind him. Basically none are lightning fast and Davis is prone to injury, so the balance on offense is shifted to the passing game, which was a respectable 9th in the AFC last year. Although they have no superstar RB, the placed 8th in the AFC is rushing at 177 yards per game, but remember that many AFC teams throw the ball, so those numbers do not gel with a 21st place ranking in scoring. If they can keep the heat off of QB Carr, they can make some plays.

DEFENSE- This is a weak point for the Texans here with a poor line, mediocre linebackers who have been revamped, and a decent secondary. Gone are Sharper and Foreman and in steps Morlon Greenwood from the Dolphins, who is a run stopper but unproven in starter status. This unit must play better than last years, and 4 out of the 5 guys are new here, so it will take some time. I look for Jason Babin, a young and talented outside linebacker to step up this year, the guy impresses me. The secondary picked up Philip Buchanon from the Raiders in free agency and Dunta Robinson is going to be a great cover corner, though young, he really shut people down in the second half of the season. With Marcus Coleman at free safety and Glenn Earl at strong safety, they are pretty strong in the defensive backfield. Overall is this a B+ unit, but the line needs to step up as they were dead last in sacks last year in the NFL. This will be crucial, because if they do not get to the opposing QB, they will get lit up by the likes of Peyton Manning, Leftwich and McNair in this division.

SUMMARY- Overall this team will compete and win some games they should not, and lose some they should win. They are inconsistent, but QB David Carr can make things happen, they run the ball effectively, and play some pretty tough defense overall. This is hard team to figure out week to week, and until they develop some pass blocking skills and an identity as a team, they will wander in the middle of the pack. Dom Capers will have his hands full this season, but I expect this young team to play hard for him and his staff and reach 9 wins.

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4. Tennessee Titans 5-11

To say the Titans cleaned house is an understatement, as they look to build for the future, and this will be a very rough year for Jeff Fisher\'s crew. The names that departed are scary including Derrick Mason, Samari Rolle, Kevin Carter, Fred Miller and Andre Dawson. They finished 5-11 last year and look to be bottom feeders for another year. A rebuilding effort for a good coach in Jeff Fisher could at times get ugly.

OFFENSE- The good news is QB Steve McNair is returning after talking retirement in the spring. They drafted 3 wide receivers in the 3 and 4th rounds, but not much support with their passing scheme to be honest. The depth at QB is good with Billy Volek in the wings, and in my opinion, he could start for about 10 other teams. Steve McNair is prone to injury, so he will figure in the mix and has a great arm and accuracy. Drew Bennett is the best WR they have and tight end Ben Troupe is an up and comer. The line is good and deep, so RB Chris Brown, if healthy has no excuses this year, as last year he had over 1000 yards in 11 games but had injuries, and rookie Damien Nash out of Missouri is a decent back with size and speed, and he can catch the ball. They will struggle in the passing game with youth and inexperience, but should be able to put up 17 -20 ppg this year consistently.

DEFENSE- This unit is all new, and it should be since it was ranked 27th in the NFL last year. A far cry from when they were 2 yards away from a Super Bowl win in recent years. hey picked up ex-Husker and then Arizona Cardinal Kyle Vanden Bosch, who if healthy can rush the passer and is a great player, he has had injury problems since turning pro. Losing the amount of talent they lost will be hard to replace. The linebacker position is deep, but no superstars, but I expect Rocky Calmus to secure a starting spot and contribute this year. Keith Bulluck is the best of the bunch and is very aggressive. The secondary took two big hits with Rolle and Dyson departing. The safety position is also below average and this is a team that others can throw on at will this year. Overall, just not a typical Titan defense, and they will give up points.

SUMMARY- A go against team again this season, they are young and inexperienced and not deep at skill positions other than quarterback. Jeff Fisher is an outstanding coach, and if he can get this team to 6 wins or more, it may be his best coaching job ever. This is a rebuilding year, and off a horrible year last year, look for Tennessee to put up a fight, but they are way down from previous additions.

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Tony George enters his 13th years a professional handicapper, and is a well known NFL guru. Tony George is a documented member of The Professional Handicappers League. Read more of his articles and get his premium plays here.