2005 AFC North Preview

In my continuing series of division breakdowns in the NFL, my 2nd report deals with the AFC North Division. This one is parity filled, with the exception of the Browns, and any of the top 3 teams here could be the champion in the AFC North, here are my takes:

1. Baltimore Ravens 10-6

The key, as with many NFL teams, is the QB position, and this has to be Kyle Bollers year, and free agency was very kind to him, as the Ravens added to their WR corp., with Derrick Mason from the Titans, a big threat for them, which they were missing last year. Brian Billick has banked his job on QB Boller in my opinion, and both are on the chopping block if it fails. This team lost some discipline last year, but head man Billick will get them in check, Ray Lewis will continue to dominate and the Ravens are poised to take this division and have a big year.

OFFENSE- You cannot succeed at QB unless you have some protection, and the Ravens signed a SOLID lineman in Keydrick Vincent from the Steelers. The Ravens line was all about running, with Jamal Lewis, who is back and out of house arrest in time for the season, but they picked up some needed help on the line and should be better against a pass rush. Given the time, I think QB Boller has some chops and with WR Mason, Taylor, and rookie and future superstar Mark Clayton, they should be able to balance their attack and move the chains. Another huge Bonus is all world tight end, Todd Heap, who can play underneath, go deep, run block, and is a serious weapon for Boller. Now that they have a deep threat and a solid running game in place, Billick is out of excuses if they fail to produce, I think they will. It should be noted that Anthony Wright is a solid back-up QB, and I think Jamal Lewis will have a huge year.

DEFENSE- Two words here, Ray Lewis! Need I say more. New head coordinator Rex Ryan (Buddy Ryan\'s son) knows these guys and they will play hard for him. Coach Ryan is going to mix things up and go away from the 3-4 defense to multiple 4 man fronts, and the old Buddy Ryan \"46\" defense, the Bears ran back in the mid-80\'s with great success. Off season workouts for the defensive players were very good according to my sources, and of course they are the hardest hitting defense in the NFL, and really can turn the tide in almost any game, since they have playmakers all over the place. The front line is the weak point, but with the speed at Linebacker and the secondary, zone blitz\'s will be the order of the day, and with the talent to cover in man-to-man coverage, they will again wreak havoc. The secondary is lead by Chris McCallister, incoming Samari Rolle from the Titans, Ed Reed and Will Demps, an all star cast. With a new scheme and solid talent, with Ray Lewis doing his thing, this defense which ranked 4th in the AFC last year and 6th overall will once again be stiff.

SUMMARY- Some new components in place, Jim Fassel running the offense this year, Rex Reed the defense, and solid cast of special teamers including Mr. consistent, Matt Stover, the Ravens could very well make some serious noise this season. Opening at the Colts is tough, but after that the first half of the schedule is a breeze. All in all, I look for a breakout year from this team, and they are a serious dark horse to play in the AFC championship.

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2. Cincinnati Bengals 9-7

Marvin Lewis has dome an impressive job with the bottom feeding Bengals the past 2 years to play .500 ball. I see Carson Palmer at QB having a huge year, and he is surrounded by weapons. The schedule is cake. They open with the Browns on the road, but have all their tough games the first half of the season games at home including the Vikes, Packers, Steelers and Texans. The rodie at Jacksonville and Baltimore could go 1-1, but these guys could open up at 6-2 easy. With a high octane offense and an improved defense, these guys could shock everyone in 2005, it would not surprise me, and they could be a great cover team early, take note of that.

OFFENSE- Carson Palmer will be a solid QB this year and is backed up by more than capable Jon Kitna. They have re-signed Rudi Johnson at running back, and he is top shelf and the RB position has some depth with 2004 rookie bust Chris Perry, who is a solid back, off from injury and if he gets with the program, with his spedd, will contribute. The WR\'s are all world and Chad Johnson is a big time stud, plus TJ Houshmandzadeh can finds openings and has a great set of hands. If Peter Warrick can get his head out of his rear, this maybe a lethal 3 man tandem, and Palmer can deliver big strikes. With big play capability, the offense can score in bunches. The OL is solid with all 5 guys back, and they also have 3 tight ends that each play a role. All in all, the best offense in this division if Palmer is clicking.

DEFENSE- The defense was improved in the off season, and they needed some help.They need to stop the run this year, they were ranked 26th in 2004. With a line upgrade, and Justin Smith rushing the passer and Bryan Robinson from the Dolphins now in the mix, the pass rush will be there, and they have upgraded at linebacker to better stop the run, adding a solid rookie in David Pollack out of Georgia and also drafting his teammate for the Bulldogs, Odell Thurman, both I feel will impact. Pollack is a huge playmaker, he is small but fast and tough. The secondary is good with Tory James off a Pro Bowl year, Deltha O\'Neil and rising star Keiwan Ratliff. I think this is a young group that will gel this season, given they get some rest, as the offense does strike quick, but they will be better than last year\'s addition. I see some \"Overs\" in the Bengals games this year, take note of that.

SUMMARY- A high powered offense with 3 stars, a great coach, a solid system that the players believe in, and great special teamers, with Chuck Bresnahan calling the shots on defense, and this could be a dangerous team. If overlooked, they will post 14 points on the board before you know what happened. The defense is young, but coachable, and I think the Bengals could be a wild card team. Keep an eye on these guys, if they can play some defense, they will be in the running.

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3. Pittsburgh Steelers 8-8

Not sold on the Steelers, YET! I want to see if rookie sensation QB Ben Rothlisberger is the real deal. He folded under pressure last year, but he did a great job leading this team to a 15-1 regular season record, I doubt they come close to that this year. The key with the Steelers is defense, they were ranked #1 in 2004, but still could not win it. Free agency killed the Steelers and it may show up early. They lost Plaxico Burress, Keydrick Vincent, Oliver Rose and all world LB Kendrell Bell. Some huge hits for veteran coach Bill Cowher overcome. Lets break it down.

OFFENSE- Quarterback Rothlisberger had a great year, if he does 80% of what he pulled off last year, the Steelers could win 9, maybe 10 games, but I have seen this scenario before. The offensive line is good, but losing Vincent was big, he will be missed. At running back, the 1-2 punch of Duce Stayley and Jerome Bettis is back, but they have no break way speed, but are bangers and eat up the clock. Look for speedster Antwaan Randle El to step up and take Burress\'s place, but Hines Ward will see double coverage now, so time will tell how effective he is. Cedrick Wilson can make some plays and they picked up rookie TE Heath Miller, thought to be the best tight end in the draft. They should have some balance, but will lack big play capability against some good secondary\'s in this division and they are not geared to score quickly, and that must change in order to compete at the level that got them to 15-1. A solid offense that was ranked 16th in the NFL last year, is a step slower in my opinion.

DEFENSE- The best defense in the NFL in 2004, stays in tact, but LB Bell is gone, and that is huge. James Farrior comes back after a huge Pro Bowl year and Joey Porter is solid. They will miss the run stopping ability of Bell, it will hurt them against the run, and with Rudi Johnson and Jamal Lewis in this division, that is trouble. The Steelers also struggles in man coverage and their secondary. They have some talent in Deshea Townsend and youngster Polamalu, who impressed everyone in 2004. They are weak on the 2nd corner and they safety position is weak. This secondary is young, but talented. I do not think this is a top 10 unit this year, and they are vulnerable against the run and the deep threat.

SUMMARY- Many have the Steelers as a top pick, I think there are too many question marks early, and you may catch some decent numbers with them early by going against public perception. All in all, they are a good team, but not a great team, as they were in 2005. Be careful laying big numbers with them, they are middle of the pack this season.

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4. Cleveland 4-12

Someone has got to be last, and without question, the Browns will have a rough year. They lost a ton in free agency, and picked up some players that have seen better days or were thrown away by other teams. They also lost head man Butch Davis, so in steps Romeo Crennel from New England, with a solid defensive mind. Too many changes for the Browns, new schemes and key personnel leaving will rear it\'s ugly head in 2005.

OFFENSE- The QB position is free agent Trent Dilfer\'s to mess up, as he was traded from Seattle to start, and rookie Charlie Frye out of Akron is the great white hope of the future. Average at best, and not surrounded by a ton of talent either, to make matters worse. Lee Suggs at RB, if healthy is decent, but he was racked with injuries in 2004, so time will tell. Denver Bronco free agent Reuben Droughns is average at best, and bust William Green out of Boston College has had a troubled NFL experience and is yet to break out. A decent group behind a less than stellar line spells doom. They were 28th in the NFL last year on offense, and will end up in about the same spot. The have some wideouts that can make some plays with rookie Braylon Edwards out of Michigan, but when your draft pick is slated to be your #1 slot guy with Trent Dilfer at QB, and an iffy running game, you are in trouble, bottom line. Kellen Winslow losing a season to a motorcycle accident also will not help.

DEFENSE- Four starters are gone from a defense that was ranked dead last against the run, and in this conference and division, that spells doom and despair. Linebacker Matt Stewart from the Falcons will help, but stopping the run is priority one. The secondary ranked 5th in passing defense last year, but that number is skewed since everyone ran all over them and rarely passed. The secondary however is decent, but young. Kenard Lang is a good pass rusher, but help from the other side is needed, and Orpheus Roye is quick and capable and needs to step up big in 2005. This defense is below average and did not do allot to pick up the pace in free agency and the draft. Rookie DE Davis McMilliam may impact out of Kansas, I saw him play in college, and he may earn a spot. This defense is not deep and very young, that is trouble folks.

SUMMARY- New faces, new places, free agency losses, young and raw talent that will need time to gel, so look for another rebuilding year with an NFL team. If this team wins over 5 or 6 games, it would be a great coaching job by the new staff. I just do not see it happening for the Browns in 2005.

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Tony George enters his 13th years a professional handicapper, and is a well known NFL guru.Tony George is a documented member of The Professional Handicappers League. Read more of his articles and get his premium plays here.