2005 AFC East Preview

Who will un-seat the New England Patriots? As Mike Ditka put it in a speech I was present at in July this team in unique in character because they care more about the name on the front of the jersey than they do about the name on the back of it. Pretty strong words from a guy who should know wouldnt you think? A few teams come to mind most notably Indianapolis and Pittsburgh this season with a longshot in Kansas City in my opinion all should be in the hunt at the end of the day. One serious dark horse the Baltimore Ravens now have some WRs on the roster picking up Derrick Mason from the Titans and rookie sensation to be Mark Clayton who should be an impact player and lest we not forget a great defense returns in tact.

The make-up of the AFC this year is the Haves and the Have nots and the parity level in this conference is much lower than the NFC but all in all one should find some good pointspread opportunity again this year and some tight division races with others having a dominant team and a bunch of also rans again this season so lets break it down and get to business with prop bets on each division for this seasons wins and losses. Lets break down the East and follow up with the North Later this week.

1. New England Patriots 11-5

Loaded is the keyword with these guys. There are a few key components missing this year off the field two head coordinators are gone Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel. Eric Maggini will take over as head guy on defense and is a longtime Bill Belichick disciple and knows the system well as he has been a secondary coach in it. Some key pick-ups in free agency most notable to me Chad Brown from the Seahawks should add more strength to an already strong defensive line and Chad Scott and Duane Starks at cornerback will add serious depth and speed. All in all until someone knocks them off Ill ride the horse here.

DEFENSE- The best DL in football and a defense that ranked 7th in the AFC and 9th overall in the NFL returns in tact after releasing Ty Law who was trouble anyway and picking up 3 studs in free agency here and also adding 2 key rookies in cornerback Ellis Hobbs out of Iowa and a sleeper Ryan Claridge out of UNLV. The LBs are deep fast and big hitters who gang tackle and fly to the ball. The question mark is Teddy Bruschi who has an issue with heart problems my guess is he will sit out time will tell. The Secondary does give up a few plays but Rodney Harrison is the best in the business at safety and is a good leader. This unit will be formidable to say the least and because of New Englands offense are always well rested.

OFFENSE- Need I say more than Tom Brady and Corey Dillon? I could but why? A great offense scheme with balance and the ability to hit hard down the field with Deion Branch who is a big time player and Givens is no slouch. Look for TE Ben Watson to make some noise after an injury last year slowed him but he is capable. Depth at QB is always a concern with a star like Brady but with Doug Flutie Chris Redman and bust Rohan Davey along with rookie Matt Cassel they are in good shape. Flutie at 42 is better than the bottom 3rd of starters in the NFL and may make some sort impact at some point. This team is simply loaded with a great offensive line and will move the chains at will. Lets not forget great special teams with Bethel Johnson as a returnee that burns and Adam Venatieri as the best clutch kicker in NFL history no more needs to be said.

SUMMARY- A tough schedule and nemesis Indy this year with serious revenge so it will be no cakewalk through the playoffs or getting to them either but the Pats have the will strong home field and the ability to find a way to win and a formula that no one has been able to beat with the best coach leading them in the NFL. A strong contender again this year in the AFC overall and in this division.

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2. New York Jets 10-6

These guys have all the tools in the shed to make it happen and were almost there last year folks. They lost to the Pats in the playoffs by 3 points and have every intention of getting it done in 2005. Question marks with key players concern me here as Curtis Martin is getting no younger and stud QB Chad Pennington is coming off shoulder surgery. They have a new offensive coordinator in Mike Heimerdinger so they need some time to gel there. I see them going vertical after Paul Hacketts departure and trying to strike with big plays and Pennington has the arm to do it if healthy. The defense is solid but a weak secondary in this division it will be no picnic.

DEFENSE- The line is the strength of this team without question but losing Jason Ferguson to the Cowboys in free agency hurts and replacement Lance Legree is no equal by any stretch but with Ellis and Abraham back the pass rush will be strong and they should be able to stuff the run as they were 5th in the NFL last year at doing so. They also were 4th in the NFL in scoring allowed and a decent 14th against the pass. Overall it is a sound unit that likes to run a 3-4 scheme in pass coverage. They still can get to the QB which is rare in the NFL anymore in a 3-4 scheme. The weakness is the secondary which is injury prone and lacks the speed in man-to-man coverage but the pass rush negates that somewhat. Playing a tough OL will be tough for them and big plays can be had against them downfield so they must improve in the secondary. Reggie Tongue needs to step up along with rookie sensation last year Erik Coleman. If they cannot rush the passer they can get lit up in a hurry keep that angle in mind. Eric Barton is a big time linebacker who makes plays and Jonathan Vilma was defensive rookie of the year at LB last season so they are good in the middle.

OFFENSE- The key again is the health of Chad Pennington at QB. He may start out slow but this kid is a gamer and makes plays and is a solid leader. Martin at RB is always a good bet but he is older now and losing back-up Lamont Jordan to the Raiders was a huge hit. Derrick Blaylock steps in from KC but he is average at best. Depth is a huge problem if Martin goes down. Laveranues Coles is the key wideout and McCareins is capable and of course Wayne Cherbet is back. An average unit at best but Coles is a stud. Hopefully they can use Doug Jolley at tight end effectively and spread it out with short passes. The OL is solid led by all world center Kevin Mawae and is somewhat deep. A nice balance should be in order but look for them to open it up downfield this year more than last.

SUMMARY- With a solid coaching staff in place led by Herm Edwards they will compete at a high level. They lost a ton in free agency and Lamont Jordan was a mistake to give away and not re-sign but with some decent special teams and a new rookie kicker along with that old Jet pride I expect this team if they stay healthy to make some noise here. They went 10-6 last year and with some help can do it again. Lack of depth will hurt them in the playoffs but they should make a wild card appearance.

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3. BUFFALO BILLS 9-7

I rank these guys third although I think they are more talented than the Jets overall but starting QB JP Losman who was injured last year who is basically a rookie is a big question mark. That scenario provides a learning curve and in the NFL that spells doom. Defense is the strength of the team by far but they have some weapons on offense even with the departure of Drew Bledsoe. A rebuilding year with dividends down the road and if they get QB Losman in sync they could finish second here.

DEFENSE- Ranked 2nd overall in 2004 look for another good year from this unit. The Schedule is in their favor and they could open up at 3-1 but it gets hard after that. Defensive head coordinator Jerry Grey will zone blitz a ton this season and they rush the passer very well. The DL is stout and can stuff the run led by Pro Bowler Sam Adams. The linebackers are very good with Takeo Spikes London Fletchers and Jeff Posey. They are also very deep at this spot. The secondary is also solid with Troy Vincent Kevin Thomas Nate Clements Terrance McGee and Lawyer Milloy. This is an A+ unit and they will make plays and are great in zone or man-to-man coverage. Second best in this division maybe the best defense overall time will tell.

OFFENSE- JP Losman is scheduled to start at QB but the good news is depth at QB with a more than capable Kelly Holcomb and Shane Matthews in the wings. Losman has a strong arm and is very mobile in the pocket and can run with it as well but not playing in the NFL for a year as he was lost his rookie year is going to be a an obstacle. The running game is solid with Willis McGahee in tact and at 100%. He is a solid runner with speed and size and he should be a great NFL running back as he has all the tools. They are loaded at wideout with Lee Evans Eric Moulds and Roscoe Parrish with plenty of depth behind them. This is an all-star bunch of guys with speed galore. The problem is the offensive line is mediocre at best and must step up in pass protection. The Bills passing offense was ranked 27th in the NFL in 2004 with Drew Bledsoe so the ability of JP Losman to move around and buy time is crucial but that also creates forced passes which creates turnovers for the youngster. They should be able to put up some points this year and they have a weak schedule but they are looking at 3 to 4 looses in this division no matter how you slice it unless QB JP Losman is better than expect out of the gate.

SUMMARY- this team is somewhat of a question mark and off a bad year last year and a new face in QB JP Losman I think they are a year away from breaking out. This is a tough division so the learning curve is difficult and mistakes are prone to cost you games. The could finish second in front of the Jets which would not surprise me but designing an offense to accommodate Losman and adding in more as weeks go by could spell some inconsistency. With solid special teams good coaching I see the Bills getting stronger as the season wears on and improving on a weekly basis and taking small steps forward will make them a serious contender in 2006 for sure but keep an eye on them this year.

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4. Miami Dolphins 7-9

Look for the Fish to bounce back with new head man Lou Saban from LSU this season as these guys stunk it up in 2004 and Ricky Williams situation was no help and they floundered at QB badly. I think 7 wins would be a huge step forward. The vaunted defense of Miami was shredded last year as they ranked dead last against the rush. Turnovers played a huge role as well in their demise in 2004. Running back Ronnie Brown from Auburn as their 1 pick will help a ton and Ricky Weed Williams may make an appearance yet this season. This is a tough division so a .500 record will get you nowhere but it is a rebuilding year but I expect the defense to play better and look for the Fish to play with some heart this season.

DEFENSE- What a change from the 2003 addition as this defense led by Zach Thomas was buried last year. The good news their secondary is was ranked 1 in the AFC in 2004 and 2 in the NFL but with your line giving up rushing yards in huge chunks who needs to throw? The bad news is most of the secondary is gone. They ranked 20th in scoring defense and being in this division will make you pay for that with losses. That was addressed by the signing of two studs Vonnie Holiday and Kevin Carter. This will be a huge help in a porous run defense. Jason Taylor is back and can make plays but at less than 250 pounds he uses speed and against a good tackle or tight end he struggles. A switch to a 4-3 scheme does Zach Thomas no good but they have some depth here with Junior Seau returning and Crowder and Pope in the mix a solid LB unit that should do better at stopping the run. The secondary was destroyed in free agency and will not be the same with Patrick Surtain gone Sammy Knight gone and Will Poole lost in training camp to injury. A team that can throw will beat these guys up and with little depth or experience lone returnee Sam Madison cannot carry the load alone. It could get ugly against a pass happy team who can protect the passer.

OFFENSE- Enter rookie RB Ronnie Brown a great college back and he should be a good NFL back but he is a rookie folks. Quarterback is an issue with A.J. Feeley and head banger Gus Frerotte fighting it out for a starting job. Look for a battle here in preseason. No depth here is a concern and neither has ever set the world on fire and Feeley loves to throw it to the other team. Look for them to pound the run as often as possible and throw underneath a ton. Low scoring games would not surprise me all season. Travis Minor steps in at RB and if Williams returns this year off the mushroom cloud he may impact big there are just allot of question marks on offense. They cannot trade punches with good offensive teams. Ranked 31st in the run and 21st in the pass in 2004 with a line that is below average is a large concern. The receivers are a bright spot with tight end Randy McMichael ready to break out and he is a good one for sure. Wideout and 1 receiver Chris Chambers is a huge playmaker a serious threat along with Marty Booker also adding some depth and talent.

SUMMARY- these guys lost a ton in free agency and have a new staff in place and new schemes to learn with limited depth. I put a ton of emphasis on having no real leader on offense especially with a featured rookie running back. That does not bode well for them and their draft and free agency was spent mainly on defense. Look for some low scoring outputs this season the emphasis will be on defense. Special teams are decent and Olindo Mare back at kicker is huge and he will be busy. All in all they are better than advertised with the right coaching decisions being made this year they should compete but I look for them to have a few blowout losses. No wonder Dan Marino passed on the general manager job last year this team is 2 to 3 years away and they need a veteran quarterback to lead them.

BEST PROP BET IN THE AFC EAST

Buffalo OVER 8.5 wins at +105

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Tony George enters his 13th years a professional handicapper, and is a well known NFL guru.Tony George is a documented member of The Professional Handicappers League. Read more of his articles and get his premium plays here.