2005 AFC West Preview

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1. Kansas City Chiefs 11-5

Dick Vermeil has a loaded arsenal of weapons on offense this year, and an improved defense this season, and should compete for a title, and no one should forget that Kansas City's Arrowhead Stadium is the toughest venue to play in the NFL, and I can verify that as a past ticket holder, and I still attend numerous games there now. Gunther Cunningham has 5 new key starters on defense; so all in all, this could be the year that KC fans have waited for since Vermeil\'s arrival. This will be a high scoring team, with an above average defense whose players will play hard for the coaching staff. This adds up to 11 wins in my book and a trip to the playoffs as a major contender.

OFFENSE- This team has always had the tools and Al Saunders is a great offense coordinator, who knows how to get the most out of it. Trent Green comes in healthy at QB, with plenty of weapons at his disposal, and he is as consistent as any QB in the NFL, and rarely takes chances or strays away from his strengths. There is also depth with Todd Collins and long time back-up Duane Huard at quarterback, and all know the system.

The running game has Priest Holmes, and when healthy, is the best all around running back in the NFL. Depth at RB is always key in the NFL, and last year Larry Johnson averaged 4.8 yards per carry when Holmes went down with injury, and Tony Richardson is a solid fullback and reserve Robert Holcomb can play either lead back or fullback, and all this behind an outstanding offensive line. That bodes well during a long season folks. The receiver corp. is thin to say the least, and with their offensive scheme, they need some players to step up. Utility tight end Tony Gonzales is all world, and WR Eddie Kennison is the main guy, so players like Sammy Parker, Marc Boerigter, Dante Hall and Chris Horn need to step up. They will have a downfield threat, but if Green is going to have huge numbers, the running game has to click. This offense was #1 in the NFL last season, and with the great offensive line they have, and experience as a team, I see no reason to doubt them again in 2005 to be a top 3 offenses in the NFL.

DEFENSE- Last year the Chiefs ranked second to last in the NFL in defense, and 29th in scoring defense, thus their demise. This year they drafted well, and picked up free agent defensive backs that were sorely needed including Miami\'s Pat Surtain and Sammy Knight. They also picked up Pro Bowler LB Kendrell Bell from the Steelers, DE Carlos Hall, and quite frankly, this will be a whole new program and look this season. Rookie Derrick Johnson out of Texas could have immediate impact at LB, and the old school will be the new school in 2005. The Chiefs have some work on the line here, but with Hall coming in, and Jared Allen coming off a rookie year where he led the team in sacks, they should be tons better. Eric Warfield was the best player in secondary last year and returns, but is average at best, but also understands the system. All in all, a middle of the pack defense, but a vast improvement from last year

SUMMARY- Not much more needs to be said, but the health of Priest Holmes is key, along with skill positions on defense. If the receivers step up, and Holmes has his standard year, I see the Chiefs going a long way this season and giving everyone fits on defense to try to contain them. With improved defensive play, this is a serious contender for the AFC crown in 2005. I would not be surprised to see them land in the Championship game in a shootout with the Colts.

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2. Denver 9-7

If you look at the Bronco\'s stats and rankings from 2004, one has to wonder what happened. I will tell you, injuries and bad luck, resulted in many near misses in 2004 and an OT loss in the Playoffs. I expect more from the Bronco\'s this season and with some new blood and young talent, expect Mike Shanahan to compete at a high level, but the schedule is brutal this season with KC, New England, Jacksonville and Philly all before the end of October. If they can weather the storm early and get things clicking, the Bronco’s can be a wild card team.

OFFENSE- While Gary Kubiak should be a head coach somewhere, it is a bonus for the Bronco\'s to have him leading the offense, and I was impressed with QB Jake Plummer last year, other than his ability to throw into coverage on the run, as he not a typical pocket passer, but neither was John Elway, it is just that Elway was better at it by a long shot. His numbers were solid and were in most cases, career highs. He makes poor decisions, but he should take better care of the ball this year. Depth at QB is a huge factor for the Bronco\'s with Danny Kanell as back up, which is a huge concern if Plummer goes down. The running back spot goes to Tatum Bell, a 2nd year guy out of Oklahoma State, and he just may be another middle of the pack college player that excels in Shanahan’s system, he has all the tools, and with Rubin Droughns traded away expect Mike Anderson and Quentin Griffen to get in some action and contribute, they are solid at running back. They also added big horse Ron Dayne from the Giants in the off-season, time will tell on that one. The receivers are a different story and they lack experience and depth expect for Rod Smith who carries the team at this position. I expect Ashley Lelie and Darius Watts to step up with a year under their belt in this system, but the “go to” tight end in gone, but they are high on Jeb Putzier at that position. The line is all world and zone blocks well and is very athletic, as all Bronco lines are. If Plummer can take care of the ball, and RB Bell gets it going, I think this offense that was ranked 5th in the NFL last year, can once again hold near that spot in 2005.

DEFENSE- The defense needed some work, and they drafted 3 cornerbacks in the first 3 rounds of the draft, as well as adding Courtney Brown at the DE spot from the Browns. The defense overall in the 2004 was ranked 9th, but the takeaways were ranked 29th. They needed some new blood and speed in the secondary and should improve in 2005. The linebacker spot is led by all world Al Wilson and second year guy DJ Williams who shows promise of being a Pro Bowler in 2005, so they are rock solid there. The line should improve as well with Brown coming in and should be able to rush the passer better which can lead to turnovers against a secondary that is a work in progress, but with Champ Bailey running around, it is always a danger to throw errant passes for opponents. John Lynch returns at safety and is always solid, but some players are battling for jobs and the Bronco\'s wasted no time in the draft getting 3 DB\'s in the first 3 rounds, the best one being 3rd rounder Foxworth out of Maryland in my opinion. All in all, another solid defense, and if the line can improve they will be better than average overall. Giving up big plays last year killed them; they should be better in 2005 with that weakness.

SUMMARY- A strong contender for a wildcard but they face many high-octane offenses in this conference, so I look for many totals to be eclipsed. If they settle in at running back and stay healthy at skill positions, this is an easy 9 win season, but the schedule is not kind early so if they are .500 or better going into November, it will be a hug plus in their favor to reach the playoffs.

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3. San Diego Chargers 8-8

Last year was a great year for the Bolts and they won this division at 12-4 overall, and Drew Brees benched the projected starter Phillip Rivers and had one of the best years of any QB in the NFL. Marty Shottenheimer has an excellent coaching staff including head offensive guy Cam Cameron back in the fold. Many think the Bolts are poised to go all the way, but I think their defense is weak, especially up front, to contain high octane offense\'s in the NFL, especially in their own division. This is a dark horse in this division, please take note of that.

OFFENSE- They are deep at QB, but Drew Brees will start and Philip Rivers will be foaming at the mouth to get a chance. Brees had a year that landed him an 8 million dollar contract for 1 year, as he simply was one of the best behind Manning from Indy last year, and was a Pro Bowler. The running game is equally impressive with LaDainian Tomlinson being the featured back, and one of the NFL\'s top 3 backs overall. They are deep with Chatman and Michael Turner in the backfield and Lorenzo Neal remains the lead blocker and sometimes-short yardage back. The line is young but above average and pass blocks well, ranked 4th in the NFL in sacks allowed, which explains only 8 interceptions by Brees in 2004. The receivers were led by Antonio Gates last season, and he emerged as one of the best in the NFL, but this position lacks depth and is injury prone, but look for Keenan McCardell to emerge this season and a solid #2 guy and Eric Parker to contribute. This is a very safe offense and that does not strike quickly, so it all must click and RB Tomlinson must remain healthy to succeed.

DEFENSE- Last year the Bolts ranked 18th overall, and stuffed anyone who tried to run on them, and that will continue. They allowed an average of 81yards per game last year on the ground, which gets you 12 wins in the NFL these days for those of you playing at home. The bad news is the passing defense was ranked 31st in the NFL, because people could throw all over them, and that has to improve for the Bolts to compete at a high playoff caliber level. They ranked 29th in sacks, with most their pressure coming from the linebackers, where they are solid but ends Cesarie and Olshansky must step it up and get some sacks. When linebackers blitz all the time, the secondary is left in man-to-man coverage, and that did not turn out well in 2004. The linebacker position is loaded and talented at every spot, with Foley, Edwards and Godfrey playing as well as any unit in the NFL. The secondary had its hands full last year and unless the Bolts can rush the passer better, it may continue. Free agent Bhawoh Jue steps in to replace Sammy Davis and Quentin Jammer will play the other side at cover corner. The DB’s are average at best, and not blessed with blazing speed, so being able to play some zone cover schemes to prevent big plays will be key. Terrance Keil gave up way too many deep plays at safety and must not bite on so much play action this year, he was burnt deep in support too many times for scores last year. All in all a decent unit, but without the pass rush improving, a team with a solid passing game and quick receivers will exploit them again.

SUMMARY- Question marks on defense, and trying to repeat a dream season, ands high expectations has me not as high on the Chargers as many, but they have talent at skill positions on offense and will trade punches and eat up the clock in games where they are outmanned on defense as a strategy. Shottenheimer and his staff have experience and will get the most out of these guys, and if the pass defense can improve overall, they could be a serious dark horse this year, and their special teams are solid which is a huge bonus. This is a good team bordering on great. Look out for them early, they may carry some big lines but not be able to post a wide margin like they did last year.

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4. Oakland Raiders 7-9

Some key additions such as WR Randy Moss and RB Lamont Jordan have many people thinking the Raiders may break out in 2005, but I say no. This is a great spot for trouble maker Moss, the Raider fans will love him to death till he shoots his mouth off, then the love affair will be over. The defense and injuries killed them in 2004, and the players did not respond well to Norv Turner, who is back, and fat man Warren Sapp was a flop. A rebuilding year for the silver and black is the way I see it. Anything over 7 wins is a huge step forward for the Raiders in 2005.

OFFENSE- If Kerry Collins can play consistent it will be a huge help, because Randy Moss, when his head is out of his rear, can catch about any ball thrown his way, and Porter and Curry along with Moss is the best 3 WR tandem in this division. The key is running back and while Lamont Jordan was Curtis Martin’s back up for 3 years, he has not been a featured back for 4 years, and his back-ups Wheatley and Crockett are average at best. Some question marks here, but they do get to play behind a good line anchored by Robert Gallery. If RB Jordan fails to deliver, it spells living and dying by Kerry Collins arm, and that has never been a good bet. They were ranked last in the NFL in rushing last year, and that should improve. They have some firepower here, the question is, with Norv Turners desire to have a balanced attack, will they exploit the passing game, and if so, can Collins deliver?

DEFENSE- NFL rankings tell the story here from last season, ranked 22nd in rush defense, 30th in pass defense, and 31st in scoring allowed. That and a 2-dollar bill will get you a cup of coffee and a sideline pass to the playoffs. They made some improvements drafting DB Fabian Washington out of Nebraska, who I have watched play for 3 years, and he may be decent, but is a year away from being an impact player in the NFL. They picked up CB Hill from the Cards and rush end Kenny Smith from the Saints, but this unit overall is not solid. The secondary is a mess, and Charles Woodsen has yet to sign as of this report. Renaldo Hill and Woodsen or Denard Walker will play cover corner with 2nd year players or rookies at safety. Not a good combo with Jake Plummer, Trent Green and Drew Brees in the division, and at the end of the day, with a linebacker unit not worth mentioning, the Raiders will get lit up again this season, bottom line.

SUMMARY- With numerous question marks on offense behind an erratic QB in Collins, it is unsure the what the Raiders fate will be in 2005, but I can assure you the defense will give up points and not be able to keep pace with the teams in this division, or a brutal schedule, which opens at New England, then Philly, Dallas and KC. The Raiders could start 0-4, and while it may not be as bad as last year, they will not make the playoffs again this season. Sorry Rabid Raider fans, it is the reality of the situation.

FINAL AFC PREDICTION

Kansas City vs. Indianapolis

Kansas City to the Super Bowl

PROP BETS- Kansas City to win the AFC Championship at 11 to 1. Kansas City OVER 9 1/2 wins at –105.

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Tony George enters his 13th years a professional handicapper, and is a well known NFL guru. Tony George is a documented member of The Professional Handicappers League. Read more of his articles and get his premium plays here.