WEEK 17 FANTASY OBSERVATIONS

January 1st, 2006 11:00 PM ET

Four for Favre?
Credit the Packers' fans for their creativity in chanting/slurring "Four more years" to Brett Favre during Sunday's game. But, it's safe to assume that the fantasy owners in the stands weren't among them. Favre has been unstartable for more than a month, and his mistakes are so frequent that he actually scores negative points in a lot of leagues. Sunday's third quarter touchdown broke a 212-pass scoreless streak, and brought his December/January touchdown total to one. Even fellow semifinalist in the NFL's Sexiest Man Awards (thanks for that, Fox) Alex Smith has one touchdown this month. If he chooses to grant the fans' wish and return next year, he could be little more than a backup quarterback on your fantasy team. And that's assuming that Javon Walker returns to full speed.

Brown Out
Let's rewind to your keeper league draft last August. You took the best rookie running back in the draft, Ronnie Brown. While Brown's season wasn't a disaster (see Cedric Benson and J.J. Arrington), Miami's two-back approach sliced up his fantasy value. Equally troubling, Ricky Williams took advantage of Brown's knee and ankle injuries the last two weeks to showcase his new physique. At some point this offseason, you're going to have to decide whether to use a keeper slot on Brown or yield it to someone else. It's a tough conundrum because he's not worth keeping if he's just going to split carries again. Optimistically, Miami could trade Williams, thanks in part to his cap-friendly contract. Or, Brown could just beat out Williams. But the most realistic scenario is that Nick Saban has revealed his preferred style, the dreaded running back-by-committee approach.

Moss Rolls
Figures. Randy Moss posts the worst season of his career, and goes nuts in week 17 when it doesn't matter. His 116 yards and two touchdowns demonstrates the fat stat ability we haven't seen in a couple years. He's a tough guy to project for 2006. Nobody knows who the Raiders' head coach or quarterback will be, only that it won't be Norv Turner or Kerry Collins. There's also the consideration of his ongoing injury problems. If Mike Martz ends up in Oakland and the team finds a quality quarterback, his value would jump. But otherwise, a quick poll of Fanball editors puts Moss between the end of the second round and the end of the third round of next year's fantasy draft.

Do the Opposite, Revisited
As many Fanball readers know, I espouse a draft day theory called "Do The Opposite" in which you eschew running backs early, and take quarterbacks, wide receivers, and tight ends in the first three rounds (especially if you're drafting in the second half of the first round). Then, you draft a string of sleeper runners in the mid-rounds. So, how did it work this year?

The good news is that Do the Opposite probably saved you from an enormous group of running back busts: Willis McGahee, Jamal Lewis, Corey Dillon, Domanick Davis, Deuce McAllister, Julius Jones, Kevin Jones, Curtis Martin, Ahman Green, J.J. Arrington, Priest Holmes, and Cedric Benson, each of whom went in the first three rounds of many drafts. Other than a short list of known quantities like Shaun Alexander, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Edgerrin James, most people's running back rankings were disastrously incorrect.

Further, there were a ton of runners available in the mid-rounds (or later) who posted strong seasons: Larry Johnson, Mike Anderson, Thomas Jones, Warrick Dunn, Stephen Davis (for the first half of the season, anyway), Cadillac Williams, Jerome Bettis, and Willie Parker, who you could have drafted instead. Then, there were many mid-season free agent pickups that helped, like Samkon Gado, Mike Alstott, Mike Sellers, Marion Barber, Greg Jones, and Jonathan Wells.

The bad news was that the quarterback and receiver position were unusually erratic. Normally, those positions are very safe, with fewer injuries or unexpected volatility than the running back crew. But this year, we had more busts than normal. At wide receiver, Randy Moss, Javon Walker, Joe Horn, Andre Johnson, and Nate Burleson were early round busts. At quarterback, Daunte Culpepper and Donovan McNabb didn't pan out. And if you went tight end early, Tony Gonzalez didn't work out. Still, those positions featured a lot fewer busts than the running back position.

Vick Sick (not in the good urban vernacular way, either)
Like your grandma's latch hook fetish, my favorite time killer is picking on Michael Vick. I want to stop, but I can't help myself when he makes it so easy. Sunday's game was an embarrassment. Sure, Atlanta was knocked out of playoff contention, but this game was important because Vick's opponent was division rival Carolina. A victory against a hungry Panther team would have seriously hurt the Panthers' chances of getting into the playoffs, thus sending an important message for 2006. But instead the Vick-led Falcons rolled over like dogs. Vick absorbed multiple sacks and was intercepted before finally getting pulled early in the fourth quarter, allowing the team's best quarterback, Matt Schaub, to play. I can accept that Vick has some fantasy value in yardage heavy leagues due to his running, but throwing 16, 14, and 15 touchdowns in his three full seasons is just dreadful. We're talking about a 58-game starter who still needs a lot of on-the-job learning to become an effective passer.

 

Quick Hitters
- This preseason's fashionable Super Bowl pick was Carolina. The year prior it was Seattle. 2006's fashionable Super Bowl pick will be Miami, based on their strong 2005 finish and ability to beat good teams.

- The guys in our office have contrived an optimistic scenario that involves the cue card girl and the stenographer from the latest iteration of the Miller Lite courtroom ad. The less said here, the better.

- If Larry Johnson had started every game, his pro-rated season numbers would have been 2,400 rushing yards, 2,900 total yards and 30 touchdowns. And as he showed in his two first half touchdowns on Sunday, he's a much more dynamic runner than people realize.

- Southwest Airlines just unveiled a new commercial that features a series of people saying "ding" over and over and over. It should be an ad for Excedrin, since it induces an immediate headache. For years, Southwest's "Want to get away?" ads were some of the best on TV. The new one is the most annoying ad I saw all day. Congratulations to the suit that decided to change ad agencies.

- I was high on Antonio Bryant coming into the season and he disappointed me. He posted a great game on Sunday, and now I'm tempted to think that he'll blossom with Charlie Frye. Then again, Braylon Edwards will be back, which won't help Bryant.

- Doug Flutie rocks. Team kicker doesn't.

- Roddy White has a bright future, despite the burden of Vick as his quarterback.

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