KEEPER DRAFT PREVIEW

Keeper Draft Preview

November 25, 2005 5:00 AM ET

In a one-player keeper league, fantasy owners have a chance to retain the rights to a player who could carry their team to greatness for several years. For owners who have players such as LaDainian Tomlinson and Shaun Alexander, their draft day decision is a no-brainer. Contrarily, owners who have ridden Priest Holmes, Jamal Lewis, and Terrell Owens to fantasy success over the last few seasons will have a difficult decision to make come draft day.

Prior to the season, our top-10 keeper league rankings featured the following players (please note that Terrell Owens was holding out at the time this order was compiled):
(1) LaDainian Tomlinson
(2) Willis McGahee
(3) Jamal Lewis
(4) Shaun Alexander
(5) Peyton Manning
(6) Clinton Portis
(7) Edgerrin James
(8) Randy Moss
(9) Daunte Culpepper
(10) Priest Holmes

Of those 10 players, only Tomlinson, Alexander, Manning, and McGahee would be considered slam dunk candidates for franchise status in a one-player keeper league. Lewis has been one of the biggest busts of 2005. Portis is still a good play in yardage-heavy scoring formats, but lousy in basic scoring leagues. James is having a great year, but he's also in the final year of his contract and a departure from Indianapolis could change his value dramatically.

Moss is having another injury-plagued season and has actually been outperformed by receivers such as Santana Moss this year. Culpepper suffered a major knee injury and might not recover in time to play next season. Even if he does, his disastrous numbers in 2005 all but eliminate him from franchise consideration. Once considered the best fantasy player in the game, Holmes' future is also in question due to neck injury. And even Owens is a question mark due to his inevitable departure from Philadelphia.

Given the dramatic turnover in our top-10 keepers, we've come up with a list of candidates who warrant consideration in one-man keeper leagues.

Keeper Draft Preview - QB Carson Palmer, Bengals: The third-year quarterback has more passing yards (2,620) and the same number of touchdown passes (20) as Manning this season. He's also three years younger than Peyton and is surrounded by a younger nucleus of playmakers. The Bengals appear to be the offensive team of the future and Palmer is already among the best fantasy quarterbacks in the game. He has tremendous upside, as we believe the best is yet to come for Carson.

Keeper Draft Preview - QB Tom Brady, Patriots: The two-time Super Bowl MVP doesn't get as much respect from fantasy owners as he deserves. Although he's never thrown 30 touchdown passes in his career, he has tossed 28 scores in two of the last three years and has also topped the 3,500 yard passing mark in three consecutive seasons. Despite his team's struggles this year, Brady has still tossed 17 touchdowns through 10 games and is still on pace to top the 25 touchdown mark. He's been incredibly consistent over the last few years, which makes him keeper-worthy in leagues that emphasize quarterback scoring.

Keeper Draft Preview - RB Steven Jackson, Rams: Jackson has rushed for 735 yards and six touchdowns already this season. We entered the season concerned that Marshall Faulk would take a big share of the workload, but that hasn't turned out to be the case. The Rams finally started to address their offensive line issues by selecting Alex Barron with the No. 19 overall pick in the 2005 draft. Two rounds later, they added center Richie Incognito, who may have earned first-round consideration had it not been for the knee injury he suffered prior to the draft. Furthermore, Jackson's numbers would be even more impressive if the Rams hadn't fallen behind early this season because of their lousy defense. Some might suggest that this second-year rusher is a risky keeper league pick due to the uncertain coaching situation in St. Louis. However, it's widely assumed that Mike Martz has coached his last game with the Rams, and it's hard to imagine that the next head coach could be more pass-happy than the Mad Scientist has been during his run in St. Louis.

Keeper Draft Preview - RB Larry Johnson, Chiefs: Some keeper league owners will wait to find out whether Holmes actually retires following his latest injury. Keep in mind that some fantasy owners have been aggressive enough to start both running backs in the same fantasy backfield this season, so we strongly suggest latching on to Johnson regardless of Holmes' status. Aside from the Priest concerns, we are also worried that the rumored retirement of head coach Dick Vermeil could have on the ground game in Kansas City. Nevertheless, we'd take our chances on Johnson. Even if Holmes returns, it's still only a matter of time before he calls it quits.

 

Keeper Draft Preview - WR Chad Johnson, Bengals: No. 85 is locked in with the Bengals through 2009, which means he'll continue part of one of the most exciting young offense in the league for at least four more seasons. C.J. has topped the 1,100 yard receiving mark in each of the last three seasons. Having gained 997 yards through six games, he's well on his way to shattering that mark this year. And after visiting the end zone six times already this season, he also has a shot at topping the career-best 10 touchdowns he scored in 2004.

Keeper Draft Preview - WR Steve Smith, Panthers: Some skeptics will label Smith a one-year wonder simply because he's only topped the 1,000-yard mark once before and had never scored more than seven times in a season before this year. However, we must point out that quarterback Jake Delhomme hooked up with Muhsin Muhammad for 16 touchdowns last year while Smith was nursing a broken fibula. Thus, Jake has had tunnel vision for his No. 1 receiver in each of the last two seasons. Moose has moved on to Chi-Town during the offseason and left Smith as Delhomme's top target, which has resulted in 72 receptions for 1,106 yards and nine scores through 10 games.

Keeper Draft Preview - WR Torry Holt, Rams: The perennial bridesmaid, Holt is traditionally second-round fodder in most fantasy drafts despite the fact that he's become one of the most consistent performers in the game. He's topped the 1,300 yard receiving mark in five consecutives seasons and has shed his reputation for having an end zone phobia by scoring 18 times over the last two seasons. Granted, he's missed a pair of games this year with a torn knee tendon, but he's still caught 59 balls for 812 yards and six scores through eight games. There are only a handful of wideouts who have performered consistently well over the last few years and Holt is one of them

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