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The Art of Handicapping:
We cannot stress enough that the goal of the spread in
each gaming contest is to equalize betting on both sides
and it is NOT a prediction of the score differential between
two teams. The sportsbook wants to have equal action on
both sides so they have no risk regardless of the actual
outcome. It is because of this fact that players receive
their biggest advantage--their ability to shop. When books
begin to receive more money on one side over another they
will adjust the line in order to create interest on the
other team. If you like that "other" team, it
is in your interest to wait until the line moves before
placing a bet, thereby receiving the best value. But, if
you are backing the team in which most of the money is going
to, it is in your interest to wager before the line moves.
Because there are so many sportsbooks, some books may not
have received as lopsided money as others and thus put a
slightly different line on a game. A good shopper will eventually
find the best value for his side, and over the long haul
a 1/2-point here, and a point there can translate into significantly
greater profits.
An infinite variety of activities play into each line.
The weather in baseball and football are big factors. Injuries
to star or integral players make having the latest information
on a team vital. Such considerations as who is the home
team and what's the history behind a match up are very important.
Historical results which show tradition and revenge situations
are very crucial in determining how a game will play out.
Equally essential is the upcoming schedules of the teams,
their starting participants and who's in the coach's dog
house. Many sportsbooks hire experts and consultants to
help them with the odds because there are too many of the
above factors, along with current power statistics and trends,
for a busy casino to follow them all accurately.
Who will win the game? That's the answer all handicappers
are searching for and since the sportsbooks conveniently
place numbers on a game in order to equalize betting on
both sides, the numbers make your job of selecting the winning
team more difficult. With all of the factors available to
you as a handicapper and also available to the oddsmakers
and bookmakers the difference between winning and losing
comes down to the practical application of that information.
Common sense, hunches, TV games and personal loyalties
are nice instruments to keep a player interested, but over
the long run they are also a nice way to keep you broke!
The best and most successful handicappers are money managers
looking for ideal situations which are defined as games
with only a high percentage of return. In individual situations
dumb luck will play into the outcome of games which no amount
of handicapping can overcome, but in the long run a disciplined
handicapper will win more of those lucky games than they
lose, because they aren't depending on the luck-factor for
winners.
Experts will gather as much information that's available
through the latest in available statistics, trends, weather,
home field and team histories. One well known example of
a historical trend is that NFL teams which play on the road
three weeks in a row have been strong go-against plays.
This trend has been a winning play for a decade.
Computer programs are also being written daily to review,
analyze and predict how each team does against the point
spread. These programs reflect the opinions of each individual
because some handicappers give more value to some factors
over others. For instance one handicapper may determine
home field to be the most important issue in each game,
while another believes that the coach is the most important
component in a game. It is important to note that there
is no "right" way to pick a game. The emphasis
of a handicapper needs to be on disciplining themselves
to a system that has produced winners for them and never
varying from it.
The information available to a player can be found in daily
publications, news services, computer services or specific
detailed programs for this purpose. The goal of a handicapper
is to study as much information as you can, for as far back
as you can, in order to find the necessary trends which
fit your handicapping needs. You will find that the more
time and work you put into your task the more you will learn
and more successful your handicapping will be.
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