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National Title Game Free Pick

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2008 BCS Championship - Title Game Pick - Tony George

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Ohio State +4 vs. LSU

BCS national Title Game - Courtesy of Tony George Sports

I cannot ignore some trends in the bigger bowl games.  Under estimated teams, a high emphasis on speed versus brawn, and public perception have led to some point spread covers where everyone is scratching their head.  I watched LSU's final 2 games of the season, one of them a loss to 8-5 Arkansas, who were soundly beaten by Missouri in the Cotton Bowl, and Tennessee who beat a decent Wisconsin team in a bowl game as well.  One can make an argument that Tennessee beat themselves in the SEC title game with 2 costly turnovers, one for a TD that lost them the game.  Other than that, Tennessee was in command of that game for 3 1/2 quarters.  Hardly a blueprint for LSU to dominate a physical team like Ohio State.

Ohio State returns to the national title game for the second year and the one thing that worries me is the same thing that happened to them last year, over 50 days off between games.  I assume they have learned how to oversome that issue with experience on the coaching staff.  While the Big 10 is overrated, throw that out a minute.  Ohio State has one game they messed up and it was Illinois.  Other than that they beat who they were suppose to beat and many times in dominating fashion.  They say speed kills, but did anyone watch Michigan light up Florida last week?  Clearly Florida was loaded with speed, it did little to help them against a Big 10 foe, who is not as good as Ohio State.  While one game has nothing to do with the other, it is a good argument for speed versus brawn. 

Both teams are healthy, which is a huge plus for LSU who were missing key players including QB Flynn.  That being said, Ohio State is on a mission and have the "no respect" card in their favor.  They also have a MONSTER defense allowing 10 ppg all season and 16 ppg their last 3.  This is a physical bunch who want to redeem themselves for last years national title game debacle against Florida.  LSU's defense, led by now Nebraska coach Bo Pelini has showed signs of weakness, and an inability to stop the run.  They are not as dominant as 2006's edition.  Ohio State's defense ranks #1 in scoring defense, yards allowed, pass defense and rank #3 in pass defense,  Granted the Big 10 does not pass as much as the SEC, but the bottom line is defense wins championships, and I am sticking to my guns in this one for that reason.

LSU is a solid team with playmakers, but they need big plays to make things happen and Ohio State is good at stopping big plays.  3 zone coverage's, man to man and doubles at WR position, and still being able to stop the run is what Ohio State is good at and that is what you need to beat LSU.  LSU is also horrible when it comes to penalties, they create their own adversity numerous times in big games.  I think this will tip the balance tonight, especially with time off, and a unit that is at times very undisiplined.

All in all, a great game of strategy tonight and I like the more physical team who is back for the second time to make a statement.  Played in the Superdome or not, Ohio State pulls off a small shocker as LSU simply has struggled away from home even when winning, and Ohio State clearly have done what it takes since last years BCS championship game to get back here and make things right.

Ohio State 21  LSU 16  - I am grabbing the points

Thanks for all your business in 2007 in College Football.  Tony George

NCAA football betting has started, and BetUS sportsbook already has tons of college football Futures betting available for those of us who can't wait. Bet on the Heisman winner, Conference and Divisional winners and, of course, the 2008 BCS National Championship winner. Bet NCAA Football Futures in our sportsbook today in the Future / props section!

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