2007 College Football Season Wrap Up

Philadelphia, PA (My Sportsbook) - Congratulations go out to LSU for winning the BCS championship game over Ohio State, 38-24. Excitement pervaded the Louisiana Superdome throughout the contest, as the Tigers became the first team ever to win the title with two losses.

Down 10-0 early, LSU stormed back to tie the game at 10-10, and never looked back after Matt Flynn hit Brandon LaFell in the back of the end zone for a 17-10 lead. Flynn, 2-0 in bowl games, was voted the offensive player of the game, the same honor he received in '05 when the Tigers rolled past Miami- Florida in the Peach Bowl.

For the second straight year, the Buckeyes failed when it mattered most, getting hammered by an SEC club in the BCS title game. Once again, they broke out on top, this time with a 65-yard TD scamper from Chris Wells, but with the score tied at 10-10, a blocked field goal attempt ruined what could have been another Ohio State lead. LSU took advantage by parading down the field for a 17-10 lead, and you could have turned your television sets off there.

Can the Tigers accomplish what Ohio State did and reach the championship game for a second straight season? The odds will be stacked against them as the defense loses Glenn Dorsey and three-quarters of its secondary. In addition, they must travel to Auburn and Florida, two games that were played in Baton Rouge in 2007.

BOWL RECAP

Favorites won everything in sight early this bowl season, taking 13 of the first 15 contests. However, it was a different story against the spread as the underdogs covered seven of the final 15. The SU tide began to turn once the more important bowls hit the schedule, with favorites winning only eight of the next 14. The dogs prevailed more often than not with an 8-6 mark from New Year's Eve through the Orange Bowl.

What was the main reason for the drop-off in SU victories? The proliferation of higher-profile clubs squaring off against each other. There are two discernable sections, if you will, when discussing this phenomenon: pre= and post-New Year's Eve contests, and it's easy to see the difference.

Prior to December 31, there were seven games involving two BCS clubs. The favored team won all seven, while covering five. On the other hand, from New Year's Eve forward, just over half of the favorites (six of 10) recorded straight up wins, with only half attaining the ATS victory.

It's obvious looking back that once the more important bowl games rolled around, the better the matchups became. Therefore, more underdogs were able to come out ahead. In fact, five of the six dogs that covered were SU victors as well: Oregon, Auburn, Michigan, West Virginia and Kansas.

Favorites compiled a 3-0 SU and ATS record the last three games, finishing up with an impressive 24-8 SU mark (75%) and an above .500 ATS record at 17-15 (53%). Those numbers compare very favorably to the last couple of seasons when the betting choice combined for a straight up winning percentage of 66% and an abysmal 43% winning percentage against the spread.

How did BCS teams fare when matched-up against non-BCS schools? As Larry David of Curb Your Enthusiasm fame would say, "Pretty, pretty, pretty, pretty good." There were eight such instances, beginning with Cincinnati vs. Southern Miss and ending with Rutgers against Ball State, and six of the eight picked up SU wins, with five ATS victories. Finally, there were six bowl games involving two non-BCS schools, and those matchups were dominated by the favorites at 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS.

CONFERENCE RECAPS

The bowl games reinforced how much better the SEC and Pac-10 were over their competition. The two leagues were the only ones from the six BCS conferences to finish in the 90s in my power numbers, and the only pair to post an above .500 ATS mark in the bowls, not to mention a combined 11 of 15 straight up victories.

For the record, the SEC ended the year with a combined power total of 91.33, while the Pac-10 finished at 90.65. The Big 12 came in third at 89.13 followed by the Big East (88.06), the Big Ten (88.05) and the ACC at a dismal 86.29.

The bowl results showed just how realistic those numbers are, as the SEC went 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS, while the Pac-10 won four of six SU and five of six ATS. The Big 12 (5-3) and Big East (3-2) were the only other BCS league to compile winning bowl records. On the flip side, the Big Ten finished 3-5 both SU and ATS, with the ACC ranking last at 2-6 SU, 3-5 ATS.

Of the non-BCS leagues, the MWC (81.33) proved why it was about a touchdown better than Conference USA (74.67) and the WAC (74.06) with an extremely impressive 4-1 SU bowl record. The only loss came from Air Force, and if quarterback Shaun Carney hadn't gotten hurt, the Falcons could very well have defeated California.

Conference USA won only two of six matchups, while the WAC finished 1-3. The two leagues were a combined 4-6 ATS. The MAC lost all three of its bowl games, registering just one cover: Central Michigan against Purdue. Navy was the lone Independent representative, and the Midshipmen fought tooth and nail with Utah before falling by three.

Finally, I can't say enough about the Sun Belt. Much maligned over the years, the league had a remarkable season capped off with a New Orleans Bowl victory as Florida Atlantic cruised past Memphis, 44-27. The conference will never make waves in any BCS conversations but when was the last time a bottom-feeder league defeated teams from the SEC, Big 12 and Big Ten in the same season?

THE FINAL TOP 10

West Virginia and USC finished tied for first with a power number of 106.5, more than a field goal ahead of Missouri.

Here is the final breakdown for 2007:

1-T) USC and West Virginia, 106.5; 3) Missouri, 103; 4) Oklahoma, 102.5; 5-T) LSU and Kansas, 101.5; 7) Ohio State, 101; 8) Virginia Tech, 100.5; 9-T) Georgia and Florida, 100

My final regular season record was a disappointing 48-50-3, but an 8-4 bowl record brought the final total above the .500 mark at 56-54-3.

LOOKING AHEAD TO 2008

Next season's key game comes on September 13 when Ohio State goes out west to take on USC. If the Trojans win that game, they will have a great opportunity to run the table, since their toughest league game might actually be a road contest at Arizona.

The Pac-10 was the second-best conference in the land this past season, but could be fourth of fifth next year. Oregon will be without Dennis Dixon and if Jonathan Stewart applies for the NFL draft, the offense will be a shell of its former self. UCLA loses almost every key defensive starter, while Cal and Oregon State are certainly not of the caliber they were a couple of years back.

Arizona State should be decent, but the Trojans have beaten the Sun Devils eight straight times and 2008's matchup is a home game. By process of elimination, the Wildcats could be USC's most difficult conference tilt.

The SEC and Big 12 will both be strong once again as Georgia, Florida and LSU each have a chance to reach the BCS Championship game, while the same could be said for the Big 12 contingent of Oklahoma, Missouri, Texas Tech and Texas. Choosing which two clubs will be in the next BCS title game is always risky, but the early lead goes to USC and Oklahoma.

A FEW SURPRISES

A couple of non-bowl teams to watch for next year are N.C. State and Pittsburgh. The Wolfpack were in trouble early this season when running back Toney Baker was lost in the opener, and then proceeded to lose five of their first six games. However, quarterback Daniel Evans hit his groove in midseason sparking a four-game winning streak, including a victory over Virginia. Look for more improvement in Tom O'Brien's second year in Raleigh.

After getting off to a 2-4 start, Pittsburgh won three of its final six with big "W's" over West Virginia and Cincinnati. The Panthers have been extremely mediocre since Dave Wannstedt hit town three years ago winning only 16 of 35 contests, but the time is now for his prized recruits to make a huge splash. Don't be shocked if they win the Big East.

Two squads that reached bowl games in 2007 that should be even better in '08 are: Fresno State and Colorado. The former dismantled Georgia Tech in the Humanitarian Bowl on its way to a 9-4 season, while the latter came up short against Alabama in the Independence Bowl.

The Bulldogs have a great chance at overtaking Hawaii and Boise State in the WAC next season, especially with quarterback Tom Brandstater back for his senior campaign. The signal-caller improved his QB rating by over 30 points while completing 63% of his passes. He also turned around his TD-INT ratio going from 13-14 in '06 to 15-5 this past season.

Dan Hawkins will begin his third season in Boulder next year and the Buffaloes already picked up their play by compiling a .500 regular season. Don't forget they lost their first six games just two years ago on their way to a 2-10 campaign.

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