2007 Sugar Bowl Preview

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Notre Dame Fighting Irish (10-2) vs. LSU Tigers (10-2)

This year's Sugar Bowl matchup features one team looking to end an almost decade-long bowl game winless drought and another that is practically playing in its own backyard, looking to avenge its two losses this season at the hands of two top-five ranked opponents.

The 11th-ranked Fighting Irish are looking to avoid their ninth straight defeat in a bowl game, when they meet No. 4 LSU in the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans on Jan. 3.

After last season's Sugar Bowl was moved to Atlanta when Hurricane Katrina severely damaged the Louisiana Superdome, the game has returned to New Orleans. The Fighting Irish will have their work cut out for them as they face a raucous crowd, while simultaneously trying to snap their eight-game bowl losing streak - tying the NCAA record set by South Carolina (1945-1988) and matched by West Virginia (1987-98).

"I know LSU home games are known for being a loud crowd," Notre Dame safety Tom Zbikowski said in an interview recently. "It's definitely going to be like another home game for them playing in their home state. But Notre Dame travels pretty well so hopefully we'll come prepared. We've played in hostile environments before, so we should be ready."

Ready or not, this game promises to be a real thriller between two fairly evenly matched teams. Here is a look at each team and the upcoming matchup as well as a prediction on the outcome and the spread:

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Senior quarterback, Brady Quinn, the likely number one pick in this summer's NFL draft, will be looking to erase the bad taste left in his mouth after Notre Dame's loss to USC in his final regular season collegiate outing. Quinn's strong arm and firm understanding of coach Charlie Weis' pro-style offense will obviously help against a talented defensive LSU team, but Quinn will also need better pass protection in this game than he got against the Trojans.

If he's given any significant amount of time, Quinn can routinely find either of his talented wide receivers, Jeff Samardzija or Rhema McKnight. Running back Darius Walker will need to be more consistent in this game than he has been all season, which would help to provide some balance to a lopsided offense that has been too pass heavy all season long.

Defensively, Fighting Irish defensive coordinator Rick Minter does a solid job of mixing up coverages to mask the unit's lack of speed in the secondary, which USC exploited and LSU will try do as well. Zbikowski is a big-hitter, but a major liability in pass coverage.

In order for Notre Dame to have any chance at stopping LSU's potent offense, which is ranked 11th in the nation, they will need huge games from defensive end Victor Abiamiri (10 sacks) and tackle Derek Landri (seven sacks). Notre Dame had also better be prepared to stop LSU's rushing attack, which really improved down the stretch of the regular season.

If this game comes down to special teams, Notre Dame could be in trouble. Placekicker Carl Gioia missed a combined four extra points in late-season games against Air Force and Army and finished just 8 of 12 on field goals for the season, with nothing longer than 40-yards.

LSU Tigers

I don't know how else to say it - LSU's offense, led by their often jaw-dropping, improvisational quarterback, JaMarcus Russell, is one of the best in the country and has become even more effective with some solid rushing performances down the stretch. The Tigers enter their bowl game ranked 11th in the nation in scoring and 18th in total offense, averaging 33 points and 404 yards per game.

The combination of Russell and his talented trio of wideouts, Dwayne Bowe, Craig Davis and Early Doucet, has combined for 2,355 yards and 23 touchdowns on 163 receptions this season, and they should pose major problems for Notre Dame's slow-footed defensive secondary.

Defensively, LSU has been among the nation's best defenses all season. They enter the Sugar Bowl ranked sixth in scoring defense, second in total defense, third in pass efficiency defense and 15th against the run. They allow just 12.5 points, 238 total yards and 93 rushing yards per game. They also lead the SEC with 30 sacks.

The Tigers are especially tough up front and in the secondary, led by DT Glenn Dorsey and FS LaRon Landry, a sure-fire first-round NFL draft pick.

LSU finished the regular season with the nation's second-ranked total defense, surrendering only 238.6 yards per contest and have watched first-year starter Glenn Dorsey develop into one of the best interior defensive linemen in the country. Defensive ends Chase Pittman and Tyson Jackson should provide consistent pressure on Brady. Four-year starter Landry is spectacular in run support and pass coverage.

Kicker Colt David and punter Chris Jackson have been solid this season, but nothing to write home about. Both Craig Davis and Trindon Holliday have returned kicks for touchdowns late this season.

The Line: Notre Dame +8 Over/Under 56

I hate to basically rip the Fighting Irish, but every one of their weaknesses plays right into the strengths of LSU.

Notre Dame's defense has remained a liability all season, especially against the pass, and LSU can throw the ball better than some pro teams. Notre Dame has an inferior offensive line, which has performed dismally in all of Notre Dame's big games this season, while LSU may have the best defense in the country at the moment, with several athletic players who can make spectacular game-altering plays either collectively or by themselves.

The Tigers ranked second in the nation this season in total defense, giving up 238.8 yards per game, and fourth in points allowed, at a measly 12.5 points per contest. Yes, Notre Dame averaged 398.0 yards of offense and 32.4 points a game, but Quinn will most likely face more pressure in this game than any other this season.

This high line may look scary, but LSU is about ten points better than Notre Dame, which is why I expect them to not only win this game outright, but to cover the spread as well.

As for the over/under, how can anyone not like the over? These teams should surpass the combined score, even if the game turns out to be a one-sided rout.

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Posted on 1/3/2007 1:33:34 PM
College Football Bowl Betting - Sugar Bowl
By Eric Williams

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