Week 4 NFL Betting - 1pm Games Previews
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Sunday, September 30th --- Georgia Dome, Atlanta
--- 1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Line: Houston -3 (41.5)
The Texans have
been a pleasant surprise for both Texans fans
and the Texans loyal NFL betting followers.
They are 3-0 ATS this season, and their only
loss this season is to the Indianapolis Colts
in a game they didn’t have Andre
Johnson or a healthy Ahman Green. The Falcons
showed some life last year but are winless this
season and are 1-2 ATS this season.
To make matters worse for the grounded Falcons,
Matt Schaub is coming back to town. With 688
yards on the season, a 75.9 completion percentage
and four touchdown passes, Schaub is assuredly
making the Falcons regret trading him in the
off-season. Especially since Harrington guiding
an offense that has an -11.3 point differential.
Schaub will be
without receiver Andre Johnson once again,
but that shouldn’t be a problem
against a defense that typically gives up 326.3
total offensive yards per game. Don’t get
sucked in by Harrington’s performance against
the Panthers last week. He’s proven to
be an inconsistent mess and unworthy of a betting
investment.
NFL Free Pick: Houston 27 Atlanta 17
Baltimore Ravens (2-1) vs. Cleveland Browns
(1-2)
Sunday, September 30th --- Cleveland Browns
Stadium, Cleveland --- 1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Line: Baltimore -4.5 (37.5)
For all the praise
and credit Baltimore’s
renowned defense gets, it’s still giving
up 21.0 points per game. Luckily for them, the
Browns entire offense is predicated on getting
Jamal Lewis to pound between the tackles and
take pressure off of Derek Anderson. The Ravens
sixth ranked rush defense is only giving up 61.7
yards on the ground and won’t be scared
of their former starting tailback.
The Ravens offense
continues to be sub-par, but the Browns defense
is giving up 430.6 yards per game. That includes
176.3 yards on the ground against, which means
that Willis McGahee is due for a great game.
Billick can’t afford
to take the pedal off the ground game with McNair
losing a step every week.
The Browns have
been putting up solid points against weak defenses,
and though the Ravens defense is overrated,
it’s still a top-10
defense in the league. No smart betting investor
should be caught dead betting on Cleveland in
the upset.
NFL Free Pick: Baltimore 24 Cleveland 12
St. Louis Rams (0-3) vs. Dallas Cowboys (3-0)
Sunday, September 30th --- Texas Stadium, Dallas
--- 1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Line: Dallas -11 (45)
The loss of Orlando Pace is resonating through
the entire offensive roster. Marc Bulger is banged
up badly and Brian Leonard will get the start
while the injured Stephen Jackson gets groined
massages on the sidelines. The offensive line
is a mess and that means a bad weekend for Marc
Bulger who will have a face full of DeMarcus
Ware all afternoon.
Dallas posted 34
points on a very strong Chicago defense and
America’s Team looks unstoppable.
The Romosexuals are averaging 38.7 points per
game, good enough for tops in the league.
St. Louis is 0-3 ATS this year and, while an
eleven point line seems a little inflated, Dallas
will have no problem torching the scoreboard
this weekend. The team that once boasted the
Greatest Show on Turf is due for a beatdown at
the hands of the Boys.
NFL Free Pick: St. Louis 10 Dallas 28
Chicago Bears (1-2) vs. Detroit Lions (2-1)
Sunday, September 30th --- Ford Field, Detroit
--- 1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Line: Chicago -3 (44)
Lovie Smith finally broke. With his job in serious
jeopardy after a spanking by the Cowboys, the
Bears will turn to Brian Griese to right the
ship in Chicago. When the Bears visit the surprising
Lions in an NFC North battle that could very
well define their season.
Having five starters
injured on defense certainly doesn’t help against a Mike Martz offense
that looks very good. But the defense has desperately
missed Dre Bly’s presence in the secondary
as they’ve given up 278.7 yards through
the air. There isn’t a lot of tape on Griese
in this Bears offense, so that will make it difficult
for a spotty Detroit defense to gameplan against
him.
But he’s still Brian Griese. He hasn’t
started a game since week 6 of 2005 (with Tampa)
and this Bears offense isn’t doing much
against anyone. Detroit’s defense has obvious
weaknesses, but Griese can’t come close
to McNabb on his best day. The Bears have let
their betting faithful down by going 0-3 ATS.
Expect that trend to continue as the Superbowl
hangover continues for Chicago.
NFL Free Pick: Chicago 14 Detroit 20
Green Bay Packers (3-0) vs. Minnesota Vikings
(1-2)
Sunday, September 30th --- Metrodome, Minneapolis
--- 1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Line: Green Bay -1.5 (40)
If you’re wondering why the oddsmakers
have put the line so tightly, it’s because
the Vikings and Packers always play tight games.
Last season, the Packers squeaked out two wins
against Minny. Favre looks reborn this season
and will pass Marino on the all-time passing
touchdowns list, but Minnesota won’t go
down without a fight.
The Vikings defense
is incredibly fun to watch. They have speed
and power upfront, and the secondary vultures
picks at will. The running game in Green Bay
is absurdly bad. They average 57.0 yards per
game and the Vikings defense only gives up
67.3 yards per game. Favre will have to try
and beat this very opportunistic secondary,
which might not be so bad since he’s
been playing terrifically so far this season.
I expect both teams to play conservatively as
Minnesota lacks any offensive punch and both
teams possess amazing defenses. The Packers are
far more capable of getting on the scoreboard
then Minnesota and Favre has always come up big
in milestone games. In a game that will be highlighted
by defense, bet on the Packers to win.
NFL Free Pick: Green Bay 13 Minnesota 7
New York Jets (1-2) vs. Buffalo Bills (0-3)
Sunday, September 30th --- Ralph Wilson Stadium,
Buffalo --- 1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Line: NYJ -2.5 (37)
Buffalo’s
offense was anemic to begin with and now J.P.
Losman is hurt. Pennington may not be at 100%
health, but he manages a game far better than
most people who do. He has thrown zero interceptions
on the year and has a 72.1 completion percentage
with four touchdowns. Buffalo has to be worried
that Terrence McGee, their starting corner,
is still nursing injuries.
Buffalo only averages eight points a game, while
giving up 26.3. The Jets, meanwhile are 5-1 ATS
in their last six games and Thomas Jones has
been playing consistently in helping the Jets
average 90.0 yards a game.
The Jets are in
desperation mode as they try to keep pace with
the Patriots in the playoff race, and the Bills
just simply don’t have
any legs to stand on. They have been decimated
by injuries to their front seven and McGee is
still in repair mode. Bet on the Jets to take
advantage of a weak Bills team that is off to
a torrid start to what was once a hopeful season.
NFL Free Pick: New York Jets 24 Buffalo 10
Oakland Raiders (1-2) vs. Miami Dolphins (0-3)
Sunday, September 30th --- Dolphin Stadium,
Miami --- 1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Line: Miami -3.5 (39)
This is probably the toughest game to call besides
the tilt between Chicago and Detroit. Miami is
0-1-2 ATS this year and Cam Cameron is still
without an NFL win. Both teams are getting murdered
this year and Oakland continues to be a tough
team to bet on. This was the first time they
beat the spread in eight tries.
Ronnie Brown came
alive last week with three scores, but that
doesn’t mean it’s
a sign of things to come. Miami still has the
second worst offensive lines in football. Trent
Green hasn’t proven to be as effective
as the Dolphins had hoped, but he’s still
getting very little time to throw.
Daunte Culpepper will get the start for the
maligned Raiders. This will be the turning point
for Oakland. Culpepper is two years departed
from his ACL injury and has looked tremendous
in practice. With a chip on his shoulder against
the squad that kicked him to the curb over the
summer, look for Daunte and Raiders to get win
over the Fins. Revenge is a dish best served
with an upset victory.
NFL Free Pick: Oakland 24 Miami 20
More Picks...
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