Colts vs Ravens Prediction

Indianapolis Offense vs. Baltimore Defense
There is no question that the Ravens’ defense will be keying in on stopping Peyton Manning this weekend but the question is how?

The first positive stat in favor for the Ravens is that Manning’s quarterback rating is weaker on the road (93.0) than it is at home (109.6).

Manning and the Colts offense will live and die with the passing game and you can expect them to attack Samari Rolle, the weaker of the two Ravens’ cornerbacks, on a number of occasions. Rolle was targeted by opposing quarterbacks all season and struggles with double-moves.

His opposite, Chris McCallister, is a player that Manning may want to avoid. McCallister returned two of his team-leading six interceptions for touchdowns.

The Colts love to use their stretch running play with running backs Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes, but last week, they found more success pounding the ball up the middle against a fast defense. This week, the Colts will struggle to find any running space as the Ravens have two road blocks in the middle of their defensive line, Haloti Ngata and Kelly Gregg, and they have speedy linebackers to shutdown the stretch play.

The Colts will have to avoid the long third-down situations this week if they plan on advancing to the Conference Championship game.

Baltimore Offense vs. Indianapolis Defense
The Colts run defense was outstanding last week but that was likely a one-week aberration.

While the Colts are now a perfect 9-0 at home, they are a mediocre 4-4 on the road. More importantly, their rushing defense is significantly worse outside of the RCA Dome.

The Ravens don’t boast a very strong rushing attack – they finished with the league’s 25th-ranked rushing offense – but they should be successful against the Colts.

For starters, the Ravens will be fresh coming off of a bye week. Secondly, their offensive line is finally healthy and much stronger than the unit that the Colts dominated last weekend.

Overall, the Ravens front five is a middle-of-the-pack group and the running attack does not boast a lot of speed. The Colts have the quickness on defense to get to the spot before Jamal Lewis gets to where he wants to go, but they can not afford to miss tackles.

In the passing game, the key match-up will be on the left side of the defensive line. Pro Bowl left tackle Jonathan Ogden is just over a turf toe injury and Colts defensive end Dwight Freeney will test him.

Steve McNair has top-notch awareness in the pocket and has a keen sense of when he needs to get rid of the ball. He is mobile and can buy time if he needs it.

The Colts don’t match-up very well against all of the Ravens receivers so they will need to get pressure on McNair to slow down the passing game. The Colts don’t have the personnel to stop receivers Derrick Mason and Mark Clayton and tight end Todd Heap if McNair is allotted plenty of time to throw the ball.

Special Teams
Neither team boasts a solid return game, but Baltimore would hold the advantage if B.J. Sams (broken ankle) was healthy.

In the kicking game, while Adam Vinatieri is the epitome of clutch, Ravens’ kicker Matt Stover was the league’s most accurate kicker this season, making 28 of 30 field goals.

While the Colts have struggled in coverage, their punting unit is on par with the Ravens.

Prediction
The Colts are no longer the powerhouse they once were. The Ravens will send a lot of blitzes to jostle Manning in the pocket and they should win that battle, especially coming off a bye week, at home.

The Colts run defense overachieved last week and, although they won’t be a complete disaster this week, they should allow around 150 rushing yards. That will be enough to keep the Colts defense off balance and that will allow the Ravens to win the battle of time of possession.

Ravens 24, Colts 17

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