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Finding Value in NFL Futures Betting

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The New England Patriots are widely considered the team to beat in the National Football League for the 2007 season. So if you’re looking to do some NFL betting right now would it be possible to get Tom Brady and company as an underdog on any prop?

Yes it would – but you’d need to think in reverse for a few minutes. The Patriots are the biggest underdog on the board (+400) on the “NFL Odds Not To Make the Playoffs” prop bet. The last time New England failed to qualify for the postseason was 2002, when they ended up only 9-7. The Pats also missed the playoffs in both 1999 and 2000.

What other teams would pay off nicely for this prop bet if they suffered through a disappointing 2007 campaign and failed to advance past the regular season? The Chicago Bears are listed at +250, while the Indianapolis Colts are at +225, and the Pittsburgh Steelers are at +200. The other three longer-shots on the board are the San Diego Chargers (+150), Seattle Seahawks (+120), and the New Orleans Saints (EVEN).

Don’t think the Denver Broncos have what it takes to get to the postseason this year? Jay Cutler’s team is pegged at -115 on the ‘odds not to make the playoffs’ prop bet right now. That puts Denver at the top of the second tier of teams, which also includes the Carolina Panthers (-120), Cincinnati Bengals (-120), Baltimore Ravens (-140), Dallas Cowboys (-150), Philadelphia Eagles (-150), and the upstart San Francisco 49ers (-250).

The New York Giants slipped into the postseason with an 8-8 record last year, but they won’t have running back Tiki Barber around in 2007. That has pushed the Giants down into the third tier of teams, where they sit at -325 to not make the playoffs. Following New York on the list right now are the Jacksonville Jaguars (-400), Arizona Cardinals (-500), St. Louis Rams (-550), Washington Redskins (-550), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-600), New York Jets (-700), Green Bay Packers (-750), and Minnesota Vikings (-750).

Vince Young got the Tennessee Titans to the .500 mark last season, but his team is still listed at -1000 odds to miss the playoffs in 2007. Other projected also-rans for this year include the Detroit Lions (-1500), Cleveland Browns (-2000), Kansas City Chiefs (-2000), Oakland Raiders (-2000), Buffalo Bills (-2500), Houston Texans (-2500), and Miami Dolphins (-2500). And if you’re looking to cash in on Michael Vick’s troubles you’re going to have to wait – the Atlanta Falcons have been taken off this prop’s board.

Check the BetUS sportsbook odds section for all the latest NFL lines during the preseason, and keep your eye on the local papers for all the latest tidbits on who will get playing time.


Posted on 7/30/2007 5:45:52 PM
Finding Value in NFL Futures Betting
By Cliff Vicious
BetUS.com (http://www.BetUS.com) is one of the oldest and most respected legal online sports betting organizations in the world and is licensed and bonded in two recognized gaming jurisdictions – Canada and Costa Rica. Employing over 500 people, BetUS.com provides a safe and secure place for sports wagering to more than 100,000 clients. Members can enjoy wagering on some of their favorite sports including: football, basketball, baseball, hockey, golf and boxing. BetUS.com has been in operation for 11 years.

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