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One of the best teams in the NFL has gotten
even better.
No, we’re not talking about the New England
Patriots here. They’re the ones making
all the headlines after acquiring Randy Moss
and others to bolster their receiving corps.
New England may now be the runaway Super Bowl
favorites at +225, but looming in their rear-view
mirrors are the San Diego Chargers at +550. The
stats say the Chargers were better than the Pats
last year, and given the moves San Diego made
in the offseason, the pecking order might not
change in 2007.
San Diego was the
only team to win 14 games during the 2006 regular
season. Both losses were on the road, at Baltimore
and Kansas City. The Ravens led the league
in team efficiency, according to the proprietary
DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average)
analysis performed by Football Outsiders. San
Diego was second, while New England came in
fifth – the Chiefs were 13th.
The Chargers were
so good heading into the postseason that oddsmakers
made them 5-point favorites at home against
the Patriots in the Divisional round. That’s
where things fell apart. New England won 24-21
as quarterback Tom Brady drove the team downfield
twice in the last five minutes, getting a touchdown
and a field goal to bounce San Diego from the
playoffs.
Thus, the first, and
probably most important, offseason adjustment
for the Chargers. They fired Marty Schottenheimer,
a respected architect on defense who won Coach
of the Year honors in 2004. But Schottenheimer
wasn’t the most well-liked
person in the front office, and when the loss
to the Pats ran his postseason record to 5-13,
that’s all the reason the Chargers needed
to let him go.
The reasoning behind
the firing may be suspect, but as they say,
the ends justify the means. Norv Turner is
Schottenheimer’s replacement,
and the Chargers should be better off for it.
Turner was the man responsible for the second-most
efficient offense in the league last year, having
installed the current system during his brief
tenure as the team’s offensive coordinator
in 2002.
Turner’s return
to the San Diego sidelines is a boon for Philip
Rivers. The present and future of the franchise,
Rivers had a marvelous 2006 campaign; his first
as a starter after two years holding the clipboard
for the resurgent Drew Brees. Rivers threw
22 touchdown passes with just nine interceptions
in a performance reminiscent of Dan Marino.
His development should continue smoothly under
Turner, a former quarterback with the Oregon
Ducks and a successful offensive coordinator
at several stops, including the dynasty Dallas
Cowboys of the early 1990s.
The Chargers’ brass has also gone to the
well to surround Rivers with more talent on the
field. They were already in excellent shape coming
out of 2006, with a fearsome offensive line,
league MVP LaDainian Tomlinson putting up monster
numbers at running back, and Antonio Gates cementing
his status as the best receiving tight end in
the NFL. Joining the party in 2007 are first-round
draft pick Craig Davis at wideout and fourth-rounder
Scott Chandler at tight end. Davis was a bit
of a reach at No. 30 overall, but has the jets
and the hands to make an immediate impact at
what was the team’s weakest position last
year. Chandler is a solid all-around tight end
who, at 6-foot-7 and 270 pounds, will provide
matchup nightmares on short routes.
San Diego’s defense was not quite as impressive
last year, finishing 14th overall in efficiency
and just 22nd against the run. Change is once
again the mantra; there is a new defensive coordinator
in Ted Cottrell, a veteran coach who is well
versed in the 3-4 defense the Chargers used under
Schottenheimer. The Chargers showed Cottrell
some love at the draft by aggressively trading
up into the second round to land safety Eric
Weddle. He’s a favorite of scouts, despite
standing just 5-foot-11 - the main, and perhaps
only, reason Weddle was available in the second
round.
There’s more on defense where that came
from. San Diego also grabbed a pair of linebackers
in Anthony Waters and Brandon Siler, and made
a splash in the supplemental draft by taking
cornerback Paul Oliver out of Georgia. The Chargers
are now deep at every position on the field – and
they didn’t have to pay big bucks on the
free-agent market to do it, like the Patriots
did.
Would you pay twice
the price to grab the Pats on the Super Bowl
futures market when the Chargers also look
like championship material? That’s
up to you to decide. As always, caveat emptor.
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Posted on 7/17/2007 3:52:29 PM
NFL Betting - Chargers Twice the Value
By Cliff Vicious
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