College Football Wagering: Betting
Trends - Auburn vs Florida
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I have a friend
who used to play for Vanderbilt in the 1990’s. He had to travel all over
the SEC, butting heads with Alabama, Florida,
Auburn, etc. One of the things he explained to
me is that he, and the rest of the Commodores,
was never “intimidated going into another
team’s stadium”. One of the pleasure
of playing college football in the SEC is that, “you
were recruited against the same players that
you play against” and that you “tend
to figure out their tendencies”.
Perhaps, my friend’s insight into SEC
football could explain why Florida, who is a
BetUS -18.5 against the spread favorite versus
Auburn this weekend, is 3–10 against the
spread in their last 13 conference games.
The trend includes
Florida’s game last
week versus Ole Miss. What does this trend tell
us? More importantly, does it say anything about
this week’s game?
When using trends
in your college football handicapping, it’s
important to think about which trends matter
in the game you are targeting. This is particularly
true in SEC play where most of the teams are
built around defense.
Here’s an example: Auburn is 3–7
against the spread in their last ten meetings
versus Florida. Also, the favorite is 7–3
against the spread in the two teams’ last
ten meetings.
The favorite this weekend, of course, is Florida.
Does the above trend assume that Florida will
cover the -18.5 points versus Auburn?
Not so fast. Another
trend concerning Florida is that the under
is 9-4 in Florida’s last
13 games in September. Okay, let’s take
a look at the BetUS total line for this game.
Right now, the over/under is 55 in this weekend’s
game between Florida and Auburn. That means that
Florida would have to score 34% more than Auburn
to beat them by 18.5 points.
That’s an awful lot of points because
Auburn, even though they have trouble scoring,
rarely gives up scores of their own. Here are
the scores in Auburn’s last four games:
Auburn - 23 vs. Kansas State – 13, Auburn – 23
vs. South Florida – 26, Auburn – 14
vs. Mississippi State – 19, Auburn – 55
vs. New Mexico State – 20.
The key game in
this stretch is Auburn’s
game versus Mississippi State. Mississippi State,
like Florida, is a fellow SEC team. Auburn played
them tough, slowing the game down, and trying
to get a win.
There is no reason
why they won’t be able
to do that against Florida this weekend. Auburn
still has a tough defense as evidenced by them
only allowing 26 points to a high-scoring and
athletic South Florida team.
More importantly,
remember that the goal isn’t
to follow all trends, but to notice which trend
is important to which particular game. The favorite
winning 7–3 against the spread in the last
ten meetings between Florida and Auburn is deceptive
only because in the past ten years Florida has
never really been favored by 18.5 point. Recency
is dead with this trend. Ten years is too long
of a time for a trend in college football to
be effective.
However, the trend
that says Florida is 3–10
against the spread in their last 13 conference
games is much stronger because it only covers
one or two years. There is a lot of recency with
this trend.
Until next week, good luck!
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Posted on 9/27/2007 5:46:04 PM
College Football Wagering: SEC Betting Trends - Auburn vs Florida
By D. S. Williamson
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