2007 BCS Championship Prediction

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Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Florida Gators

The granddaddy of bowl games is here, with the Tostitos BCS Championship Game, to be played 8pm ET/5pm PT, on January 8th at the University of Phoenix in Glendale, Arizona.

The Ohio State University Buckeyes, undefeated at 12-0 and ranked #1 in all polls, face the #2-ranked 12-1 University of Florida Gators for the title, to be shown on national television on the FOX network.

The Buckeyes won the national championship in January 2003 under present head coach Jim Tressel, and Urban Meyer will lead the Gators into this final college game of the 2006 season. The line with us at BetUS.com at the time of this writing was -7 Ohio State, with the game total at 47 and the team totals at 27 for OSU and 20 for UF.

Ohio State are sitting at the top because they have who many consider the best college football player in the game today, quarterback Troy Smith.

Smith compiled 30 touchdown passes and only threw five interceptions, which is an impressive ratio, and playing that way for the number one team helped Smith win almost every individual offensive award you can win, including the Heisman Trophy. Some are forgetting that Smith can also get the job done with his legs; he only ran for 233 yards and one touchdown this year, but that’s primarily because he figured out how to throw many more touchdown passes. In his junior season, he ran for 611 yards and eleven rushing touchdowns.

The Gators will definitely need to be aware of what type of pressure a passing and running quarterback can place on a defense, as the University of Southern California found out last year when former Texas Longhorns' quarterback Vince Young obliterated them by himself, with 200 yards rushing and three touchdowns on the ground, while he completed 30 out of 40 pass attempts. Believe it when it is stated that Ohio State will try to replicate that game plan.

When Smith isn’t throwing to the end zone or tucking it in to scramble down the field, he likely will be handing the ball off to running back Antonio Pittman, a diminutive but strong runner who rushed for 1171 yards with 13 touchdowns.

It does not end there, as the Buckeyes have impressive depth in the form of a not-so-diminutive freshman. The 6’1”, 225-pound Chris Wells will carry the ball when Pittman does not, and the 18-year old impressed by averaging 5.6 yards/carry to Pittman’s 5.0 mark, scoring seven touchdowns... all this while obtaining less than half the number of carries that Pittman received. Wells is clearly the future of OSU, but that future may be now if he explodes for a big run before Pittman does.

The Buckeyes have the privilege of having two main receiving targets, wideouts Ted Ginn Jr. and Anthony Gonzalez. Their numbers almost mirrored each other as Ginn Jr. had 59 catches for 781 yards and nine touchdowns with Gonzalez obtaining 49 balls for 723 and eight touchdowns. A third receiver, Brian Robiskie, had five touchdown receptions this season and must be accounted for as well.

The Florida Gators will be looking primarily to the arm of quarterback Chris Leak, along with the strength of their defense, to get the job done in Glendale. Leak had a nice season, throwing 22 touchdown passes to 13 interceptions, while passing for more yards than OSU’s Smith did (2729 to 2507). But some of his mistakes have led to ridiculous calls for freshman quarterback Tim Tebow to take over. Tebow had one impressive game when he substituted with Leak in Florida’s biggest blowout of the year, a 62-0 tailwipe of a Division 1-AA opponent, Western Carolina. Do not look for Tebow to take over if Leak falters a bit, although he may be put in the game briefly in specific situations.

The boys from the Sunshine State also have dual threats at wide receiver, Dallas Baker and Andre Caldwell, with the former getting 56 receptions for 897 yards and nine touchdowns while Caldwell had one reception less in compiling 571 yards and five touchdowns.

It has been well documented in these days leading up to the title game that Ohio State’s defense has not faced an offense like the Gators will employ: the spread option that incorporates multiple receivers and usage of the entire field to spread the defense apart and open lanes for a mobile quarterback and running back. Not that Leak is mobile… he had more than three times more carries than he had rushing yards.

Tebow actually came in second in the team’s rushing yardage category with 430 yards, and led the team in rushing touchdowns with seven on the ground, prompting those calls for replacement. Running back DeShawn Wynn led with 630 yards with a mere five rushing touchdowns, indicating the weakness of Florida’s offense. But head coach Meyer knows that the senior experience of Leak will be more useful than the freshman inexperience of Tebow.

The defense of Florida is the reason why the Gators even reached Glendale to give them a chance in this national championship. They ranked sixth in the nation in run defense, allowing less than 75 yards/game, never permitting a runner to obtain 100 yards in any game, including Arkansas Razorback Darren McFadden, who came in second to Smith in the Heisman voting. Linebackers Brandon Siler and Earl Everett figure in the reasons for this defensive strength.

As for Ohio State, they are anchored by a sophomore, middle linebacker James Laurinaitis. All he did was become the only sophomore to win, in the 14-year history of the award, the Bronko Nagurski Trophy as the top defensive player in the nation. When it is put into perspective that no junior or senior players were considered better this season and past winners include NFL greats Warren Sapp, Charles Woodson and Champ Bailey, one can see how impressive this feat is. Laurinaitis helped OSU hold opponents to seven or less points in seven out of their twelve games.

It appears that the exploits of Troy Smith and Ohio State may be too much for these Gators to overcome, as they incorporate several weapons to have incredible balance on offense to offset the one-dimensional attack of Florida.

OSU’s Ginn Jr. is also a dangerous returner for the favorites, and field position is always important, especially in huge games like this one. It is not likely that there will be an upset in this national championship game like the USC-Texas game of last year.

BCS TITLE GAME PREDICTION: Buckeyes to cover

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Posted on 1/5/2007 7:56:43 PM
NCAA Football Betting - Tostitos BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
By Anthony Oxley

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