Week 1 NFL Picks & Betting Trends

Sept 5th, 2007

By Mike Halford and Jason Brough
Bodog Nation Contributing Writers

Each week, we break down four trends to help bettors make more informed NFL betting picks. The following are for Week 1:

Last season, the Ravens turned the supposed "toughest division in football" into a creampuff stroll. A 5-1 record included sweeps of both Cleveland and Pittsburgh, the broom jobs pacing Baltimore to its second AFC North crown in four years.

A solid road team (6-2 in 2006) that only allowed 15 points per away game, the Ravens are a quality play +3 in Cincinnati on Monday night. The points look tastier than the aforementioned creampuff when taking the Baltimore blitzkrieg into account.

The Ravens should pick apart a leaky Bengals offensive line. If 2006 was any indication, Cincinnati has serious problems along its front five. Carson Palmer was sacked a career-high 36 times, spending more time on his back than Chasey Lain.

The team hasn't done much to address the issues, and the line is still plagued with problems. Right tackle Willie Anderson is a question mark with an injured right foot while second-year player Andrew Whitworth looks to replace durable left guard Eric Steinbach, who signed with Cleveland in the offseason. Levi Jones missed 10 games last year with a bum knee and was rushed back into action this preseason, a move that didn't sit well with the Pro Bowl left tackle.

These are big developments for Baltimore defensive ends Trevor Pryce (12.5 sacks in 2006) and Terrell Suggs (9.5). They'll take advantage of the edges and rush to disrupt Cincy's high-octane passing attack. If the defense does the business, betting on the under (with the total currently floating around 40 points) could be a savvy play.

The New England Patriots were the darlings of the offseason, adding the likes of receiver Randy Moss and linebacker Adalius Thomas to an already impressive roster. Getting 2/1 odds to win the Super Bowl, the Pats are by far the team to beat, at least according to oddsmakers.

But in what world do the Patriots deserve to lay 6.5 points on the road against the New York Jets?

The Jets finished 10-6 in 2006, beating the likes of – hey, whaddya know? – New England (at Foxborough) and then sweeping its last three regular-season games to qualify for the postseason.

Throw in the injury to New England defensive end Richard Seymour and the suspension of strong safety Rodney Harrison, and the Pats are suddenly vulnerable on D.

As for the offense, Moss battled a hamstring injury throughout training camp and isn't even sure he'll play Sunday. Even if he does, at what level will he compete?

Take the Jets and the points.

For sports bettors, a Super Bowl pick is a little different than simply opining on who's going to win. It's a combination of that, plus taking into account the odds being offered. That's why sharp bettors probably aren't overly enamored with the New England Patriots, a very good team with extremely short odds (2/1) to win the Super Bowl.

That's not to say that the Buffalo Bills are a smart option at 100/1, either. They aren't. In fact, just glancing at their schedule, the Bills probably have a better chance of going 0-16 than winning it all.

You need that happy medium: a team with a legitimate chance and the payoff to boot.

For me, that team is the Pittsburgh Steelers (20/1). Only two years removed from beating Seattle in Super Bowl XL, new coach Mike Tomlin has a great shot at rediscovering the glory in 2007.

Here are a few factors to consider:

* The Steelers won six of their last eight games last season to finish 8-8.

* QB Ben Roethlisberger was terrible in the first half of last season. Might his offseason motorcycle accident and emergency appendectomy have had something to do with Pittsburgh starting the schedule 2-6?

* The Steelers' first four opponents in 2007 are all beatable: at Cleveland (4-12 last season), Buffalo (7-9), San Francisco (7-9), at Arizona (5-11). That could translate into a nice bit of momentum heading into the meat of the schedule.

Eleven teams are getting shorter odds than the Steelers in the Bodog Sportsbook. All have legitimate concerns. Might as well back the contender with the highest potential payout.

There's a lot to like about the 2007 Rams. They beefed up a shoddy run defense by drafting DT Adam Carriker and signing DE James Hall. Marc Bulger got two more quality receiving options in WR Drew Bennett and TE Randy McMichael. Rookie fullback Brian Leonard will relieve some of Steven Jackson's ball-handling burden. And the Rams will open the season with two winnable home games against the Panthers and 49ers.

So why, then, is St. Loo a prohibitive longshot to emerge from a relatively weak NFC, behind the likes of San Fran (6/1) and Detroit (10/1)?

I don't know the answer - in fact, I quite like St. Louis' chances. After opening the season at home for two games and then traveling to Tampa Bay for the third, the Rams could easily be 3-0 before heading into Dallas (5/1 to win the NFC) - a game that could decide who grabs the early stranglehold on conference supremacy.

The big test will come through weeks 6 to 11. Four tough road games - in Baltimore, Seattle, New Orleans and San Francisco - and a bye week will likely decide if the Rams are a NFC contender, a playoff hopeful or preparing early for the 2008 Draft. I think a good early start will give them some momentum, possibly enough to capture the conference crown.

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