Week 2 College Football Betting Preview

The Wolverines will need a different plan of attack when they play Oregon this weekend

Sept 6th, 2007

By Jason Brough
Bodog Nation Contributing Writers

Michigan's shocking defeat at the hands of tiny Appalachian State put sports historians into quite the tizzy this week.

Was the Wolverines' 34-32 loss to the Mountaineers the biggest upset in college football history? Perhaps, but it's certainly not without competition.

Consider this trio of results from the modern era:

In 1985, the Washington Huskies lost 21-20 as 37-point home favorites to Oregon State.

In 1992, Division I-AA The Citadel beat Arkansas 10-3, an outcome that caused Hogs coach Jack Crowe to lose his job.

In 1998, woeful Temple overcame a 17-0 deficit at No. 14 Virginia Tech to win 28-24 as 35.5-point dogs.

History lessons are, of course, important for perspective's sake; however, for sports bettors, it's the future that really matters.

So, as coach Lloyd Carr prepares his Maize and Blue for Oregon this Saturday at Ann Arbor, what kind of reaction can we expect from a group of young men who've been ridiculed all week on a national stage?

Oddsmakers certainly haven't counted the Wolverines out, making them 8.5-point favorites over the Ducks (1-0). Oregon handled Houston 48-27 in its opening game.

That said, the pollsters weren't quite so ready to forget what happened in the Big "Flop" House. A preseason No. 5, Michigan fell out of the Top 25 in both the AP and USA Today rankings.

"I thought about keeping them low 20s, but then I felt, you play like that at home in the season opener, after all the expectations and (championship) talk we heard," Minneapolis Star Tribune sports writer and voter Chip Scoggins said. "I think it was justified to drop them out."

"If they beat Oregon, I'd say they're right on the bubble (of the Top 25)," said Scott Wolf of the Los Angeles Daily News.

For their part, the Michigan players appear to be taking things in stride.

"It hurts because you don't like losing," said Michigan linebacker Chris Graham.

"But how far can you hold your head down? I'm not holding my head down at all. You've got to move on forward."

A Spread of a Different Kind

We talk a lot about spreads in this publication, but this time we're not talking about the point spread.

Appalachian State found most of its success against Michigan using a spread offense, which involves stretching the field horizontally using three-, four- and five-receiver sets. What a spread offense hopes to achieve is multiple vertical gaps for both the running and passing game to exploit.

A spread offense with a mobile quarterback is even more effective, since the defense is forced to cover a wider field, leaving ample space for scrambling.

Appalachian State QB Armanti Edwards rushed 17 times for 62 yards and a touchdown against Michigan.

Of particular concern for Carr and company, the Ducks have an athletic quarterback of their own. Dennis Dixon ran for 141 yards against Houston on Saturday, mostly out of the spread offense.

"There are a lot of similarities,'' Carr admitted Monday. "The quarterback is a critical part of the offense in terms of the running game, and you've got to be prepared for the option football.''

The Power of Redemption

In addition to game-planning, Carr will also have a big job in building back the confidence of his young troops.

"I think any time you are coming off a great emotional win or a big disappointment you have got a challenge as a team," he said. "Sometimes it is hard to come down from a high and, certainly, it is difficult to bounce back from a low. But that comes back to the character of your team.

"There is no question that our team faces a difficult week in the standpoint of being able to put a disappointment behind us. And yet that is really one of the great tests of athletics. You find out if you can handle success."

For Oregon, the challenge is also daunting. Not only do the Ducks have to contend with 100,000 furious Michiganites, they'll also be facing a level of desperation that only occurs when a season is on the line. Coping with that kind of emotion in Week 2 is a tall order.

"They're going to be on heightened alert,'' Oregon coach Mike Bellotti said. "I liken it to people being prepared for terrorist attacks now.''

A tad on the hyperbolic side, perhaps, but point taken.

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