Sports Betting Strategies

A sports-betting history lesson, with a nod to the computer and the trailblazers who saw the future

By Jason Brough
Bodog Nation Contributing Writer

Today, it's about as rare as a one-dollar bill to find sports-betting handicappers touting "revolutionary" computer programs designed to pick winners. Some programs claim to simulate games while others profess to crunch myriad statistics in order to come up with an accurate spread, which may or may not match the one being offered in sportsbooks. If the spread doesn't match, a moneymaking opportunity theoretically exists.

While the programmers will differ in their approaches and levels of success, what they share is a debt of gratitude to the trailblazers who preceded them. Because the computer wasn't always welcome in the world of gambling.

Perhaps the most important of those trailblazers is Michael Kent, a mathematician who in 1972 - in addition to his day job of designing nuclear submarines - started crunching statistics for his company's softball team. A proficiency in breaking down his team's strengths and weaknesses progressed into a desire to profit from his work.

Unfortunately, he couldn't bet on company softball games, so he turned his attention to college football. Poring over reams of NCAA statistics and betting information - which was no small task to assemble before the Internet - Kent was able to write his first predictive program. Much fine-tuning followed, during which he started placing bets with local bookies.

Those bets must have been successful because Kent soon quit his job and moved to Las Vegas. Once he arrived in Nevada, however, he found it wasn't so easy to make a career betting on sports. Instead of concentrating on the important stuff - picking winners - he found he spent most of his time running around placing bets and settling up.

In 1980, at the end of his rope and just before he decided to call it a day in Vegas, Kent met Dr. Ivan Mindlin, an orthopedic surgeon with an interest in sports betting and an understanding of what Kent was trying to achieve. (The latter was a rare quality in a time when computers were for rocket scientists and gut feel was for handicappers. After all, who in their right mind would trust a box to tell them how to bet on sports?)

Mindlin sold Kent on his ability to move large amounts of money - the task Kent wanted no part of - and with that, the Computer Group was founded. Kent would do the picking and Mindlin would take care of the transactions.

The Computer Group would go on to become a part of gambling lore. Kent's forecasts earned millions of dollars for his investors. Unfortunately for Kent, those investors, who included Las Vegas legend Billy Walters, had a vested interested in downplaying the winnings. That way, Kent wouldn't seek a bigger part of the pie.

Eventually, Kent got wind he might not be getting all he deserved and the Computer Group dissolved in a solution of greed. An FBI investigation into illegal betting also helped drive it apart.

While Kent is considered by many to be a naive intellect who was taken advantage of by a crew of street-smart hustlers, what he did for the sports-betting world was historic. From the most advanced models to the simplest of spreadsheets, computers are now a necessary instrument for all sports bettors. Gut feel, on the other hand, has become the calling card of suckers.

Horse racing is another sport where computers have been used to rack up huge profits for bettors. An Australian by the name of Alan Woods can attest to that. His betting syndicate based out of Hong Kong has won millions at the track. The computer program the syndicate uses, written by Bill Benter in the 1980s, uses over a hundred variables involving horses, jockeys and track conditions to come up with its predictions.

After the data is input, the computer tells Woods how to bet. "Ten years ago Bill [Benter] said he could just switch the computer on and leave it during the race while he has a nap or drinks a beverage. But of course you'd be too scared to actually do that," Woods told one journalist.

Of course, it wasn't like the program was built in a day. It took years before it was tweaked enough to spit out winning picks. Before then, many bankrolls were lost.

Woods, a recluse who has over a hundred people making bets as he directs them from his luxury high-rise apartment in Manila, claims his first winning season came in 1986-87. And the winning would continue. During one race day in 1995, Woods maintains he made $8 million.

Granted, there have been some losses along the way, and not just in horse racing.

Woods took a $100-million stock-market hit in the late 1990s when he attempted to short the NASDAQ index before the bubble actually burst.

It's all part of the game when computers are making the decisions because emotion is taken out of the equation. A computer won't beat itself up over a lost bet. At the same time, it won't develop an unhealthy ego after a successful run.

It's safe to say, every gambler on the planet wishes he or she could boast the same thing.

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