Odds To Win Super Bowl XLII

Breaking down the bulls and bears of pigskin

Aug. 13, 2007

By Jason Brough
Bodog Nation Contributing Writer

It's been a wild summer for the markets. Among the top stories: The subprime mortgage meltdown created a full-blown credit crisis; free-falling Yahoo ousted its CEO, Terry Semel, and replaced him with co-founder Jerry Yang; and Rupert Murdoch got his greedy hands on The Wall Street Journal. Of course, if you think it's been crazy in stock circles, consider what certain NFL teams have experienced in recent months.

Two big summer acquisitions have bettors in love with coach Bill Belichick's quest for a fourth Super Bowl in seven years. Receiver Randy Moss and linebacker Adalius Thomas do much to address last year's concerns in New England, at least on paper.

Moss, along with Wes Welker, provide quarterback Tom Brady with more quality targets than in 2006 when Reche Caldwell led all Pats' receivers with a meager 760 yards.

On defense, Thomas shores up an aging New England linebacker corps that includes Tedy Bruschi (34 years old), Junior Seau (38) and Mike Vrabel (31).

At 8/5 odds, however, there is virtually zero upside to betting on the Patriots to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.

Recommendation: Sell

New England has a tough start to the regular season. Its first game is in New York against the Jets and then it returns home to play the Chargers. With two more tough road games in Cincinnati (Week 4) and Dallas (Week 6), the Pats could quite easily be a .500 team by mid-October, at which time you'd get them with a better payout. At any rate, even if they start out rolling, those odds just can't go any lower.

Investors watched closely as the Michael Vick dogfighting scandal unfolded. The questions weren't so much, "Is he guilty?" but, rather, "Will he play?"

As it became more and more obvious that Vick would be on the sidelines for most, if not all, of 2007, the Falcons' odds got hammered.

Having shipped capable backup Matt Schaub to Houston in March, Atlanta must now trust Joey Harrington as its signal-caller.
Joey Harrington - Bodog NationJoey Harrington, now with Atlanta. (AI Wire photo)

Harrington appeared in 11 games last year for the Miami Dolphins, throwing for 12 touchdowns and 15 interceptions and compiling a 68.2 passer rating.

Those numbers aren't great, and neither is Harrington, but he did lead the Fins to five wins in six games from Weeks 9-14, including victories over Chicago and New England.

Recommendation: Hold

The current odds seem about right. This isn't like the Colts losing Peyton Manning. Vick is a great athlete but an average quarterback. Let's see what new head coach Bobby Petrino can do in a wide-open NFC before we send the Falcons to the pink sheets.

Every year, bettors take one team and hype it up as the one that's going to make the leap. In 2007, it's the San Francisco 49ers.
Alex Smith - Bodog NationAlex Smith. (AI Wire photo)

With ever-improving QB Alex Smith and Frank Gore at running back, coach Mike Nolan's Niners won five of their last nine in 2006 and even took a late run at a postseason spot in the weak NFC West.

The offseason saw San Francisco add cornerback Nate Clements from Buffalo and safety Michael Lewis from Philadelphia. Both should help a secondary that surrendered 25 touchdowns through the air in 2006, tied for 27th in the NFL.

Add former Seahawk receiver Darrell Jackson to the offense and there's no question the 49ers are an improved team. However, it's yet to be seen if they're on the same par as similarly-favored sides like Baltimore (18/1), Dallas (20/1) and Seattle (20/1).

Recommendation: Hold

Hyped or not, the Niners have yet to prove they're for real, and it'll take time for all those new faces to gel. Let them take a few lumps (and hopefully drive up the odds) before committing to a futures bet.

Rex Grossman is invariably the first name that pops to mind when the Chicago Bears are discussed.

Grossman, the guy everyone worried about.

Grossman, the guy they were right to worry about.

Grossman, the guy who threw the 56-yard interception return TD in Super Bowl XLI.

Grossman is still the QB, but if training camp is any indication, things could be different in 2007.

Said Michael Harmon of FOXSports.com to fantasy football players: "For those entering draft rooms worried about Rex Grossman, don't be. Grossman demonstrated more poise and confidence in his abilities than he had last year."

Grossman carried over his form to Chicago's first exhibition game Sunday where he went 8-for-10 for 50 yards in a 20-19 victory over Houston.

Recommendation: Buy

Even if Grossman is a concern, the Bears still have an amazing defense, led by Lance Briggs and Brian Urlacher, plus a dangerous running back in Cedric Benson. Chicago is easily the class of the NFC North (oddsmakers are giving them 2/7 odds to win the division) and should earn a first-round bye in the playoffs.

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