Making NFL Preseason Profits

The games may be sloppy and the stars may leave early, but there's money to be made off preseason football

August 10th, 2007

By Carlisle Richards
Bodog Nation Contributing Writer

Ahhh! Preseason football: the first taste of pro pigskin. The time to watch rookies make a name for themselves, for NFL Europe rejects to get playing time, and for Peyton Manning’s backup, Jim Sorgi, to actually see the field.

Most of all, however, it’s the first chance to bet on football. Some feel betting on preseason is riskier than having Lindsay Lohan as a designated driver, but if you can see past the sloppy play you can start banking bucks on NFL exhibition odds before the real season begins.

There are, however, some tips one should follow.

Preseason Tip #1: After Halftime, It’s Garbage Time

Nothing compares to the anticipation of watching the Hall of Fame Game - the first real football game since the Super Bowl. And fresh off watching Michael Irvin give an inspirational HOF speech, who wasn’t excited to see the Pittsburgh Steelers and New Orleans Saints go at it? But once the game kicked off, that feeling lasted about 30 minutes (45 if you include the halftime show).
Michael IrvinWho wasn't ready for some football after Irvin's HOF speech? (AP Images)

In the third quarter, dudes you swear were bagging groceries a week ago were getting playing time, cameras were focusing on HOF highlights instead of the field, and Bryant Gumbel and Cris Collinsworth were talking to Irvin about his tendency to kiss his sons on the lips.

“Don’t worry, nobody’s watching,” Gumbel admitted during the interview, and more Irvin kissy talk ensued.

And that’s how it’ll be in every preseason game. A preseason’s second half is all about coaches figuring out who their backups, third stringers, and cuts are, so don’t place any bets expecting the starters to make a huge impact on the game. In the end, the smart move is placing bets on whichever team is the visiting or home underdog. Since ’97, the away 'dog covered 54 percent of games while the home 'dog covered 60.4.

Preseason Tip #2: Take the Under

If you watched the HOF game, two things were evident: first, the game was ugly (New Orleans didn’t score in the first half). Second, the game went under the 33.5 total (the final score was 20-7 Pittsburgh).

“I can't spin it any way but the way we played,” Saints coach Sean Payton said after the loss. “We were sloppy, sluggish. We've got a lot of work to do.”

NFL teams are still trying to get their groove back in preseason: miscues are made, passes are dropped, balls are fumbled and scores are low. In ’06, 72 out of 130 preseason games went under the total (54 went over, and four were a push): that’s 55 percent of wagers.

Oddsmakers usually prepare for this by making totals lower than normal, but it usually doesn’t matter. Preseason is pro ball at its ugliest - make money off that ugliness by taking the under more often than not.

Preseason Tip #3: Know Your Coaches

Not all NFL coaches approach preseason the same. Some don’t care about winning, some think it’s the first step to the Lombardi Trophy, and some think it’s three games too long.

Coaches like Mike Shanahan seem to take preseason games seriously. Since he’s been coach of the Denver Broncos they’ve won 37 of 52 games. Or John Fox, he’s 15-5 overall (12-7-1 against the spread) as head coach of the Carolina Panthers.

“You want to win everything,” said Detroit Lions coach Rod Marinelli. “If we're playing marbles, I want to take all your marbles - and your bag and everything you have, your shoes and your socks and go home.”

And then you have who-cares coaches like Tony Dungy. Despite coaching powerhouse squads like Indianapolis and Tampa Bay, he’s 20-26 straight up (21-24-1 ATS) in preseason games and 1-7 SU the past two years. After a 23-10 preseason loss to Dallas on Thursday, August 9, he barely registered concern that the Cowboys offense schooled his Colts D.

“All in all, some things to build on,” Dungy calmly explained despite being dominated in total plays (65-49), and time of possession (37:06 - 22:54). “We had some young guys, especially… some defensive linemen that got into the fray a little bit and made some things happen.”

More so than the regular season, a coach can control whether or not a team covers the spread, which makes it imperative to know their approach in exhibition games.

Preseason Tip #4: Beware of Minor Preseason Injuries

As much as preseason is about bringing along new talent, if coaches could play their starters without consequence they would. The fear is injury.

"You hope to be 4-0 because you always want to win,” coach Shanahan said, “but not at the expense of keeping guys healthy."

Imagine the chaos in Indianapolis if the Colts lost Manning for a year because he was playing in the fourth quarter of an exhibition game? How quickly would San Diego Chargers coach Norv Turner be fired if he runs LaDainian Tomlinson one time too many and he ends up tearing his ACL?

That’s why coaches are very cautious with their superstars in exhibition games. Don’t be surprised to see a player on the injury list with a hangnail, or staying on the sideline with mysterious “flu-like” symptoms.

Preseason is more about survival than preparation for the Mannings and Tomlinsons of the NFL, therefore, it’s good to check on their status 30 minutes before kickoff to see if they’ll be playing.

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